August 20th Links

• Private equity funds have to put the money to work in order to earn fees on it. If they don't invest it, they have to send it back. There are time limits. Nobody gives money back. It will be put to work. You can't raise the next fund if you haven't allocated the last fund. Everybody wants to raise the next fund. You can't raise $4 billion and then sit on it until the cycle turns and more opportunities present themselves. You need to make something into an opportunity now. Small funds face the same issue. [link]
• What makes the rule of three work? Suppose the probability of what you're looking for is p. If we want a 95% confidence interval, we want to find the largest p so that the probability of no successes out of n trials is 0.05, i.e. we want to solve (1-p)n = 0.05 for p. Taking logs of both sides, n log(1-p) = log(0.05) = -3. Since log(1-p) is approximately –p for small values of p, we have p ˜ 3/n. [link]
• What the author doesn't realize is that the investors he tries to demonstrate his system emulates have their best days behind them and new methods replace old. Prior world record holders would not qualify for today's Olympics. We laugh at chess games from the early 1900s and know a moderately-ranked master would likely be the World Champion of 1912. Virtually any competitive sport or activity has the same dynamic: chess, poker, running, surgery, and definitely investing. You can't look to the past. The people who we are to emulate and admire according to Carlisle were mavericks and innovators. You're not being an innovator by copying what someone did in 1955, or even in 2000. [Shkreli]
• Democratic socialism, on the other hand, should involve public ownership over the vast majority of the productive assets of society, the elimination of the fact that workers are forced into the labor market to work for those who privately own those productive assets, and stronger democratic institutions not just within the state but within workplaces and communities as well. Our characterization of democratic socialism represents a profound deepening of democracy in the economy. [Jacobin]
• The bottom line is that if a college applicant visits websites that discuss hot button political issues such as the president, or far left or far right lawmakers, the First Amendment or Second Amendment rights, abortion, affirmative action, gay marriage, immigration, etc. its highly possible they may be denied admission to the most prestigious colleges in the United States. Why? Because an increasing number of college admissions officials are going to great lengths to collect their applicant's personal political opinions. [link]
• Barnett recommended a dark color on the bottom of the plane (a "split base") for a clean appearance (belly oil won't show) and also for "more ramp presence" and 60-70 percent of his clients choose this. He is not a fan of the polished spinner: "painted spinners add length to the plane." What if the whole aircraft is polished? Barnett was a fan of LoPresti Knot Wax as a sealant (I can't find any source for this). [Phil G]
• Rather than the subjective, whimsical evaluations that so often lead to dud Symbols of American Womanhood, (1) the modern beauty pageant should take a hint from the Ancient Greeks and that straightforward measure of feminine pulchritude represented by Helen of Troy, daughter of Zeus and Leda, whose face "... launched a thousand ships, and burnt the topless towers of Ilium." (2) Here we have a useful, dispassionate, scientific measure of beauty: a "helen." One helen is sufficient good looks to launch one thousand ships, and to cause the destruction by fire of an entire city. The objective standards of Ship Launching and Arson may now be used to analyze feminine beauty. [link]
• Moulay Ismaïl is alleged to have fathered a total of 867 children, including 525 sons and 342 daughters by 1703, with his 700th child being born in 1721. It is estimated that he had 2,000 concubines. This is widely considered the record number of offspring for any man throughout history that can be verified. [Wiki]
• Postmodern "Theory" is also an entry barrier for English Departments. There are a huge number of smart people who love English literature and could teach it well at the college level. Erecting a barrier to entry that they first have to apprentice for years learning horrible jargon that offends their refined taste in prose style keeps a lot of potential entrants out of the field. [Sailer]
• I love lateral files and hanging folders. I even drove to Alaska with four plastic crates of hanging folders in my minivan. The best filing cabinets are made by Steelcase. You can special order them in non-ugly colors, e.g., really white white. They are expensive but last forever and roll beautifully. Wood filing cabinets might look better but the chemicals in the wood and glue will eat your images. [Greenspun]