Thursday, February 10, 2022

Morning Earnings: Philip Morris International Inc. ($PM)

Philip Morris (PM, previously) reported results. Highlights:

  • Q4 2021: Reported diluted EPS of $1.34, up by 5.5%; up by 10.2%, excluding currency. Cigarette and heated tobacco unit shipment volume up by 4.2% (reflecting cigarette shipment volume up by 2.4%, and heated tobacco unit shipment volume up by 17.0% to 25.4 billion units).
  • FY 2021: Reported diluted EPS of $5.83, up by 13.0%; up by 10.7%, excluding currency. Cigarette and heated tobacco unit shipment volume up by 2.2% (reflecting cigarette shipment volume down by 0.6%, and heated tobacco unit shipment volume up by 24.8% to 95.0 billion units).
  • Net revenues from smoke-free products accounted for 30.7% of total net revenues for Q4 2021 and 29.1% of total adjusted net revenues for the full year.
  • Repurchased 7.6 million shares of common stock for $691 million, at an average price of $91.29 per share in Q4, and 8.5 million shares of common stock for $785 million, at an average price of $92.15 per share, for the full year. Increased regular quarterly dividend by 4.2% to an annualized rate of $5.00 per common share. 
  • "We are forecasting organic top-line growth of 4% to 6% and currency-neutral adjusted diluted EPS growth of 8% to 11%" for 2022.


Philip Morris' Marlboro (ex-U.S. obviously) cigarette volumes were up 2.4% year-over-year in Q4; that's better than Altria did

The PM dividend yield is now 4.8% and it trades at 18x the prior year's earnings and 17x management's forecast for 2022. 

Nice to see that management made well-timed share repurchases when the stock inexplicably dipped in Q4. You pay a premium to Altria and British American for great capital allocation, strength in the Marlboro cigarette business, geographic (and regulatory) diversification, and a growth business in smoke-free alternatives. 

Thought experiment: if you had to pick two securities to leave to your heirs, might they be Philip Morris and Dorchester Minerals?

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