Saturday, August 6, 2022

Suncor Energy Reports Second Quarter 2022 Results ($SU)

[Previously regarding Suncor: Suncor Energy Reports First Quarter 2022 Results, Goldman Sachs on Suncor and Cenovus, Canadian Oil Sands Earnings (Suncor and Cenovus) - Q4 2021, Suncor Energy Inc..]

Suncor Energy (SU) reported results last week. Highlights from the results and conference call (note that these figures are Canadian dollars, but we will translate to USD for discussion at the end):

  • Driven by a strong business environment, Suncor generated record adjusted funds from operations of approximately $5.3 billion, or $3.80 per common share, in the second quarter of 2022, as we executed planned maintenance across our asset base," said Kris Smith, interim president and chief executive officer. "Our confidence in our business and expected annual cash flows enabled us to return approximately $3.2 billion of value to our shareholders, which includes both the highest dividend per share and highest rate of share repurchases in the company's history.
  • Adjusted funds from operations increased to $5.345 billion ($3.80 per common share) in the second quarter of 2022, compared to $2.362 billion ($1.57 per common share) in the prior year quarter. This was the highest in the company's history, exceeding the prior per share quarterly record, from the first quarter of 2022, by 33%. The company's net earnings increased to $3.996 billion ($2.84 per common share) in the second quarter of 2022, compared to $868 million ($0.58 per common share) in the prior year quarter.
  • For the second consecutive quarter, Oil Sands delivered record adjusted funds from operations of $4.231 billion in the second quarter of 2022, compared to $1.844 billion in the prior year quarter, driven by significantly higher price realizations. Production from the company's Oil Sands assets increased to 641,500 barrels per day (bbls/d) in the second quarter of 2022, compared to 615,700 bbls/d in the prior year quarter, due to increased production at Syncrude and Fort Hills in the current period, partially offset by the impact of maintenance activities at Oil Sands operations, including the largest turnaround in Firebag history, which was completed subsequent to the quarter.
  • Refining and Marketing (R&M) generated record adjusted funds from operations of $2.127 billion in the second quarter of 2022, compared to $677 million in the prior year quarter. In the second quarter, refinery utilization averaged 84% and crude throughput was 389,300 bbls/d, compared to 70% and 325,300 bbls/d respectively in the prior year quarter. Solid utilizations in the current quarter outside of planned turnaround activities allowed the company to capture significant benchmark crack spreads and refining margins. Following the completion of planned turnaround activities, the company's refineries exited the quarter with an average refinery utilization of over 100%.
  • In the second quarter of 2022, Suncor continued to deliver on its strategy of growing shareholder returns, returning record value to its shareholders of approximately $3.2 billion, through approximately $2.6 billion in share repurchases and the payment of $657 million of dividends. Both the dividend per common share and the rate of common share repurchases during the quarter are the highest in the company's history. As at August 2, 2022, since the start of the year, the company has repurchased approximately $3.9 billion of Suncor's common shares, representing approximately 88.5 million common shares at an average share price of $44.40 per common share, or the equivalent of 6.1% of its common shares as at December 31, 2021.
  • The company has also made disciplined decisions to adjust and streamline its portfolio to enable a greater focus on its core business, to safely increase the reliability, utilization and integration of its assets while continuing efforts to sustainably reduce controllable costs. In the first six months of 2022, the company announced that it was taking steps to optimize its asset portfolio through the planned divestment of its E&P assets in Norway and its wind and solar assets. Subsequent to the second quarter of 2022, the company reached an agreement for the sale of its Norway assets, pending regulatory approval, for gross proceeds of approximately $410 million (Canadian dollar equivalent), before closing adjustments and other closing costs. The sale is expected to be completed in the fourth quarter of 2022, with an effective date of March 1, 2022. The sale process for the company's wind and solar assets is progressing, with a sale expected to close early in 2023. Based on interest received in the company's E&P assets in the U.K., the company has also commenced a sale process for its entire U.K. E&P portfolio.
  • Suncor will also be undertaking a strategic review of its downstream retail business with the goal of unlocking shareholder value. With the support of external advisors, this review will evaluate and consider a wide range of alternatives, from a potential sale of the business to options to enhance the value of its retail business.
  • With the company's confidence in its expected cash flows, the current business environment and expected proceeds from the dispositions of assets, the company expects to achieve the lower end of its 2025 targeted net debt range of $12 billion during the second half of 2022. Once net debt has been reduced to $12 billion, the company expects to allocate 75% of excess funds towards share buybacks and 25% towards debt repayment. Once the company's net debt balance is at its $9 billion floor, the company expects to allocate excess funds fully towards shareholder returns.
  • [Why is $9 billion the hard floor for net debt? Why is that the right number?] That's a good question, Doug. If you actually look at it in a low commodity price environment, and we're using $35, $40 WTI, if you look back at our history, we generally have made around about $6 billion of cash flow in that environment. The commodity price, much lower crack spreads. So the $9 billion is derived from one and a half times coverage on -- we would be one and a half times our cash flow at $9 billion.

[Following figures in USD at an 0.774 exchange rate.]

The market cap of Suncor is $42 billion and EV is $53 billion. With net earnings of $3.1 billion for the quarter, shares are trading for 3.4 times annualized earnings. The adjusted funds from operations of $4.1 billion for the quarter is an annualized AFFO/EV yield of 31%.

Suncor's proved and probable reserves are 5.8 billion barrels, so that's an enterprise value of $9 per barrel. The PV-10 of their proved and probable reserves was $50 billion at year-end 2021, which was calculated based on the $66.56 average WTI price last year. That means the present value of the reserves at a much lower oil price than current WTI covers almost all of the current enterprise value and puts a $3 billion enterprise value on the refining and marketing operations which earned $2.2 billion after tax in 2021 (and $1.6 billion this quarter).

3 comments:

CP said...

Suncor’s refining and marketing gross margins are primarily influenced by 2-1-1 benchmark crack spreads, which are industry indicators approximating the gross margin on a barrel of crude oil that is refined to produce gasoline and distillates. Market crack spreads are based on quoted near-month contracts for WTI and spot prices for gasoline and diesel and do not necessarily reflect the margins at a specific refinery. Suncor’s realized refining and marketing gross margins are influenced by actual crude oil feedstock costs, refinery configuration, product mix and realized market prices unique to Suncor’s refining and marketing business. In addition, the U.S. regulatory renewable blending obligations influence the benchmark cracks, which may increase their volatility, while the cost of regulatory compliance is not deducted in calculating the benchmark cracks.

Suncor has developed an indicative 5-2-2-1 index based on publicly available pricing data to more accurately reflect Suncor’s realized refining and marketing gross margin. This internal index is a single value calculated based on a notional five barrels of crude oil of varying grades refined to produce two barrels each of gasoline and distillate and one barrel of secondary product to approximate Suncor’s unique set of refinery configurations; overall crude slate and product mix; and the benefit of its location, quality and grade differentials, and marketing margins. The internal index is calculated by taking the product value of refined products less the crude value of refinery feedstock excluding the impact of FIFO inventory accounting methodology. The product value incorporates the New York Harbor 2-1-1 crack, Chicago 2-1-1 crack, WTI benchmarks and seasonal factors. The seasonal factor applies an incremental US$6.50/bbl in the first and fourth quarters and US$5.00/bbl in the second and third quarters and reflects the location, quality and grade differentials for refined products sold in the company’s core markets during the winter and summer months, respectively. The crude value incorporates the SYN, WCS and WTI benchmarks.


https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0000311337/000110465922086319/tm2218186d1_ex99-1.htm

CP said...

The majority of Suncor’s revenues from the sale of oil and natural gas commodities are based on prices that are determined by or referenced to U.S. dollar benchmark prices, while the majority of Suncor’s expenditures are realized in Canadian dollars. In the second quarter of 2022, the Canadian dollar weakened in relation to the U.S. dollar as the average exchange rate decreased to US$0.78 per one Canadian dollar from US$0.81 per one Canadian dollar in the prior year quarter. This rate decrease had a positive impact on price realizations for the company during the second quarter of 2022 when compared to the prior year quarter.

Suncor also has assets and liabilities, including approximately 60% of the company’s debt, that are denominated in U.S. dollars and translated to Suncor’s reporting currency (Canadian dollars) at each balance sheet date. A decrease in the value of the Canadian dollar, relative to the U.S. dollar, from the previous balance sheet date increases the amount of Canadian dollars required to settle U.S. dollar denominated obligations, while an increase in the value of the Canadian dollar, relative to the U.S. dollar, decreases the amount of Canadian dollars required to settle U.S. dollar denominated obligations.


Ibid.

CP said...

For the year-to-date 2022, EBITDA of $9.1 billion less capex of $1.8 billion gives free cash flow of $7.3 billion, for an annualized FCF/EV yield of 27.5%.