Thursday Night Links

• Today, the world produces 40 times as much copper annually and 250 times as much nickel as it did in 1900. The fact that we produce far more materials than we did in the past, yet prices have barely changed, suggests that contrary to Ehrlich’s prediction, we’re not close to running out of these materials any time soon. That is what brings me closer to Simon’s worldview. [Our World in Data]
• One reason to doubt all nutritional studies outside of 24/7 metabolic wards is the documented propensity of people to underreport how much they eat. Take for example the popular claim that “metabolism” is to blame for over-fatness. When food intake is precisely measured and controlled, study after study has demonstrated that there are no significant differences in metabolism per pound of body weight between the young and old, pre or post-menopause, or the obese and lean. All humans have about the same caloric requirements per pound of body weight. Given the laws of thermodynamics and the narrow range of human body temperature, this makes sense. People who weigh more really do eat more, but report less, and this is why reliable experiments must be conducted in a controlled environment instead of relying on self-reporting. [The Tom File]
  
• Households with at least one GLP-1 user reduce grocery spending by approximately 6% within six months of adoption, with higher-income households reducing spending by nearly 9%. These reductions are driven by significantly larger decreases in purchases of calorie-dense, processed items, including a 11% decline in savory snacks. In contrast, we observe directional increases in nutrient-dense purchases, such as yogurt and fresh produce. We also examine food-away-from-home spending at limited-service establishments, such as fast-food chains and coffee shops, finding reductions at breakfast and especially during dinner times. Our findings highlight the potential for GLP-1 medications to significantly reshape consumer food demand, a trend with increasingly important implications for the food industry as adoption continues to grow. [SSRN]
• In one of its last days as an independent bank, I was having lunch at Bear Stearns’ quite subdued partners’ dining room with a friend. Since I was about to have my first kid, I was full of theories. New parents start off with a lot of theories. With each subsequent one, it becomes more and more practical until you have had most of these theories beaten out of you. Unbidden, I was lecturing my friend (a father of many kids and many years) about the virtues of 24/7 attachment parenting. He let me go on for a while before interrupting with, “but no one wants to see you 24/7. You should get your kids on a schedule”. So I did and it worked. As it is nearly impossible to get them scheduled once they are much older this fit into the theme of erring towards reversible mistakes (no facial tattoos, etc.) [Chris DeMuth Jr.]
• This is the nickname of an area of Madrid where you find the three most famous art museums in Spain: Museo Nacional del Prado, Thyssen-Bornemisza Museum, and Museo Nacional Centro de Arte Reina Sofía. All of them are a pleasant walking distance from each other. While all have massive exhibits (each with many thousands of pieces) I recommend visiting all in one day as they act as context fillers for each other. In one day of indulgence you will see Goya, Velázquez, Holbein, Cranach, Picasso, Dalí, Rafael, Ribera, Murillo, Joan Miró, and literally hundreds more. I recommend starting with Thyssen, then Prado, and finish at Reina Sofía. [Caribbean Progress Studies Institute]
• What buyers cared about was price and square footage, along with generic markers of a nice house: faux columns, faux brick/stone, a fancy front door, faux shutters, and generic/safe colors. They DID care about the interior, where they wanted granite countertops, big kitchen, big closets, lots of bathrooms, lots of rooms (bedrooms, home office space, home gym room, man cave, laundry room), tall ceilings, big master bedroom, generous garage, quality windows, etc. These are efficiently achieved with a two-story boxy style like a Colonial that sits on a postage-stamp sized property, with a similar house sitting close on each side. As long as the property has a decent patio there is little regard for having a yard large enough for children to play in, since kids don't play outside anyway and people are having fewer kids. If people want to show their neighbors they have fancy taste they'll buy an expensive car and park it in the driveway. [Marginal Revolution]
• Of course, after being left for dead by so many U.S. investors, the global stock market did better with non-U.S. stocks actually turning in historically healthy real returns (like 5-6% per annum over cash). It turned out that, just as we thought, the U.S. really did have the best companies (most profitable, most innovative, fastest growing) and this indeed continued in this last decade. But it also turned out that paying an epic multiple for the U.S. compared to the rest of the world mattered somewhat more than we thought, and international diversification, as we knew it would one day, did eventually work. It turns out there was indeed a price at which European stocks made sense. [AQR]