Monday Morning Links

• If Trump goes through with his tariffs and isolationism, this will have many effects, but probably not the one effect that he intends, namely, bringing back manufacturing jobs. Tariff policy has been changing on a weekly basis, and all of the tariffs could well be rescinded after Trump leaves office. No one is going to start building factories in the US when they don’t know what policies will be in place when the factory is ready to operate. [Nathan Cofnas]
• On the other hand, if we make improvident choices, the bright horizon I’ve described will not materialize. And let me put it very plainly. If we Republicans choose Donald Trump as our nominee, the prospects for a safe and prosperous future are greatly diminished. Let me explain why I say that. First on the economy. If Donald Trump’s plans were ever implemented, the country would sink into prolonged recession. A few examples. His proposed 35 percent tariff-like penalties would instigate a trade war and that would raise prices for consumers, kill our export jobs and lead entrepreneurs and businesses of all stripes to flee America. [Mitt Romney]
• The measure won’t pass the House, and the White House may dismiss the Senate vote as more criticism from the usual GOP dissenters. But that could change as economic events evolve. Iowa Sen. Chuck Grassley on Thursday introduced a bill with Democratic Sen. Maria Cantwell of Washington that would claw back Article I’s trade authority by requiring Congress to approve tariffs within 60 days. Tee that up for a floor vote, please. Congress could do the country a favor if it becomes jealous of its powers—or at least afraid of the political consequences that will accompany higher prices and slower economic growth. [WSJ]
• By employing this statute, Mr. Trump claimed a unilateral power to tax and regulate commerce—powers the Constitution vests in Congress under Article I, Section 8. The Supreme Court has signaled skepticism toward such executive improvisation. In West Virginia v. EPA (2022) the Court struck down the Obama Environmental Protection Agency’s Clean Power Plan, ruling that the agency couldn’t overhaul the energy sector without explicit congressional approval. [WSJ]
• Mr. Trump justifies his tariffs by declaring a national emergency under the 1977 International Emergency Economic Powers Act. No previous President has used that law to impose tariffs. Mr. Trump is stretching his authority much as Joe Biden did with his student-loan forgiveness. Congress has circumscribed the President’s power to impose tariffs, allowing it on imports that threaten national security (Section 232) or in response to “large and serious” balance-of-payments deficits (Section 122), a surge of imports that harms U.S. industry (201), and discriminatory trade practices (301). None of these trade provisions empowers Mr. Trump to impose tariffs on all imports from all countries based on an arbitrary formula. [WSJ]