Tuesday, April 14, 2009

Put a Fork in this Rally

  • The public is piling into the market.. and companies are selling.
  • Oregon unemployment rate skyrockets in March, to 12.1% from 10.7% in February.
  • The S&P has been bouncing back and forth since the fall.
  • March sales of the Pontiac G3, a subcompact GM launched in February. In March the company sold 141.. That means just one in every 19 of GM’s roughly 2,700 Pontiac dealers sold one during the month. At the end of March, dealers had 3,479 G3s in stock, according to Autodata. That’s enough to last 617 days at the current rate of sales – close to two full years.
  • More yellow weeds than green shoots in today’s data-flow
  • The market is broken. Why does anyone think there is any equity in GM?Retail investors.
  • How can anyone still think this is a liquidity crisis? When asset values get cut in half, how could that not cause a solvency crisis?
  • Who is the IMF selling its huge block of gold to? Is that the exit strategy for elites?
  • Anecdotally, people still think that the economy is going to "get back to normal", i.e. the bizarrely abnormal conditions that prevailed during the credit bubble. For example, on CRE deals I see people are reluctant to write leases longer than a few years at today's "depressed" prevailing rates. That leads to a greater supply overhang in the future when reality finally hits.
  • In the first quarter of 2009, retail tenants vacated 8.7 million square feet nationwide, according to the latest report from Reis. That quarterly total exceeds the 8.6 million square feet vacated in all of 2008.
  • Anyone who thinks that this is a "generational bottom" and is buying this rally is going to be carried out over the next year.

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

Wal-Mart's take on the economy