Tuesday, September 14, 2010

Market "Tells"

The market is like a game of poker. Sometimes other players will tip their hand.

  • Most wall street analysts are claiming that the economy is recovering... but they are also clamoring for more "quantitative easing" and "stimulus." 
  • Leading figures like Tim Geithner and Warren Buffett are hyping the recovery. If there actually was a recovery, it could speak for itself.
  • European banks are obviously insolvent. Solvent banks don't need sham "stress tests." They don't need to be ordered to raise capital, and it certainly shouldn't take a solvent banking system eight years to recapitalize.
Meanwhile, the stock market is on fire and bearish sentiment has evaporated. I've long ago stopped getting daily emails about the Hindenburg omen. This is nature's way of telling us to increase short exposure.

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