Wednesday, January 5, 2011

Laszlo Birinyi, The Guy Who Says the S&P 500 Could Surge to 2,854 by 2013

Oh boy. I just looked into the background and track record of Laszlo Birinyi, The Guy Who Says the S&P 500 Could Surge to 2,854 by 2013.

I am overjoyed and delirious with excitement. Here is a choice selection from his Forbes column, February 12, 2007,

If you are venturesome, also remain with New Century (30, NEW), a subprime mortgage lender. The stock is down 32% since last April when I recommended it. But the company has raised its dividend for each of the last eight quarters, and the stock yields 25%. Don't put your retirement funds here or take a large position, but at four times trailing earnings, it's cheap. And there has to be a bottom somewhere.
Shorting New Century was my first Credit Bubble trade, although by the time I started the blog, the New Century short was over and I was using it to illustrate that Downey Financial was worse.

Here's another great pearl of wisdom, this time from January 2008,
The bearish arguments for 2008 aren't any more valid. Many bears expect a recession, which they assume is poison for market performance. Not quite. In the 11 recessions since World War II the market has averaged a 3% gain, despite the inclusion in that data set of the 23% decline in 1974. During 6 of those downturns the S&P went up. If 2008 is a recession year, it is not automatically fated to be bad for stocks.
What, me worry?

1 comment:

whydibuy said...

If you want to look at bad market callers, just look in the mirror.

March '09 was not the low I believe you adamantly said. Or how the bounce of that extreme low in May '09 was manic behavior. Nice call there as well.