Sunday, May 8, 2011

WSJ: "A 'Buy' Sign for Treasurys?"

This is rich. The Wall Street Journal is finally saying what I've been saying for months about the long bond. First, that bonds will probably benefit from a break in "quantitative easing." Second, that bonds are an extremely crowded short:

"Almost every client we have seen in the last month is short" U.S. Treasurys, Mike Schumacher, global rates strategist at UBS, wrote in an email. At a lunch last Wednesday with nine portfolio managers from central banks, "everyone who expressed a view" was short Treasurys, he added.

Such a broad consensus has inspired him to advise clients to be a little less bearish on bonds. "I have been surprised at how consistently the short positions are across types of clients: central banks, commercial banks, hedge funds, etc.," he said.
This is so cool!! Note that the commenters on the article are still skeptical of bonds - fantastic!

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