Flowing Barrels on ATP Oil & Gas (ATPG)

From my point of view, being long ATP equity is not much more than a bet on oil, and even then it may be a losing bet. All of the company's increased PV-10/standardized cash flow the last 3 yrs is from price revisions, while reserves have stayed flat despite massive spending. Based on the forecasting I've done, there appears to be little FCF to repay debt and indeed significant additional NPIs and ORRIs will be needed to fund cash gaps. Indeed, ATP's deepwater strategy may be 'rolling over.'