"The developing global downturn is likely to have a disproportionate effect on debt-to-GDP ratios across Europe. [...C]ontraction of GDP doesn't simply raise the debt-to-GDP by virtue of a smaller denominator. Rather, weak GDP predictably results in revenue shortfalls and the need for counter-cyclical spending, all of which causes a disproportionate jump in debt levels relative to GDP. If you think European debt-to-GDP problems are bad, wait a few quarters."
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