Sunday, December 9, 2012

Merry Christmas - Book Reviews from Credit Bubble Stocks

5/5 - These Are "Must Read"






Stagflationary Mark said...

For what it is worth, I too found Conquer the Crash interesting.

I believe I bought it in 2004. I was predisposed to buy it of course, for that's the year I became a permabear.

Like you, I am also agnostic about EWT.

My one complaint about Prechter would be that he foresaw a deflationary crash yet he offered advice to buy short-term treasury bills (if memory serves).

I opted instead to lock in long-term rates before they fell (TIPS). In hindsight, I have no complaints.

Others clearly did well betting directly on the crash itself. Take Citigroup for example. I owned it from the late 1990s to 2004. It treated me well. Those who still own cannot say the same. Ouch.

I wish I could find a reason to be bullish right now, but I can't. There are just so many exponential trend failures, many of which are 5+ decades in the making.

Even magic pixie dust wouldn't change my opinion that the party ended in 2000. Sigh.

CP said...

I'm no longer "agnostic" about EWT - it doesn't make falsifiable predictions so it's not really a scientific theory.

But the book and his other thoughts are worthwhile.

Agree that buying 30y Ts yielding 5% would have been the easiest way to play the crash.