Ten Year Yield Down Despite Taper
Who would've thought!
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13 comments:
Nobody could have known! ;)
IEF now above its 200 day moving average.
"But.. the Fed isn't BUYING as many bonds ?!?!?"
The 20-year TIPS is back down to 1.03%.
If that's any indication (and I believe it is), so much for the "strong economy over the next 20 years" theory.
Hempton said that Tepper was short the 10y to hedge his equity portfolio...
Check this out.
Our Manufacturing Employment Boom Bubble
Very ugly chart. Mere words cannot adequately express how ugly it is.
It ought to be good news that manufacturing output/employee is rising. But it only helps the non-elite if the efficiency increase results in falling prices (dreaded deflation!).
Since the central bank is hell bent on devaluation, those who don't command significant amounts of capital need to stockpile garbage bags and paper towels.
short the 10y to hedge his equity portfolio
That was one of the craziest theories I've seen yet.
It's even crazier than Jeremy Siegel warning me of the Great TIPS bubble back when interest rates spiked in 2011. I took that opportunity to back up the truck on a 30-year TIPS. They can pry that bond from my cold dead fingers as I plan to hold to maturity. :)
It really is amazing how many warnings of imminent interest rate increases there are floating around.
stockpile garbage bags and paper towels
Guilty as charged. Still outperforming treasury bills! Go figure.
Toilet paper is best for the comedy and irony though.
I just flush the inflationary capital gains right into the septic tank. If the government wishes to share the "profits" with me then they are free to come pump them out! :)
It really is amazing how many warnings of imminent interest rate increases there are floating around.
Makes sense. The stock market *is* guaranteed to only go up in 2014. That seems to be the consensus.
As money continues to move from risky risk-off bonds into safe and secure risk-on stocks, rates are bound to rise until the economy overheats.
Too much sarcasm? Seems excessive.
For the simpletons in the audience, your thesis is:
1.) Fed bond buying actually makes yields higher (prices lower) than they would be in the absence of buying, thus...
2.) When the Fed tapers, yields should go down (bond prices should rise), thus...
3.) You want to buy bonds if the Fed isn't, and sell them if the Fed is buying
Do I have this correct?
1.) Fed bond buying actually makes yields higher (prices lower) than they would be in the absence of buying, thus...
2.) When the Fed tapers, yields should go down (bond prices should rise), thus...
3.) You want to buy bonds if the Fed isn't, and sell them if the Fed is buying
Exactly!!
On Wednesday January 29, 2014, Aggregate Credit, AGG, rose a strong 0.3%, as bond vigilantes positions in the Benchmark Interest Rate, ^TNX, were forced lower lower to 2.67%, by purchasers of credit, consisting mostly of US Government Bonds, GOVT, on the ongoing flight of capital out of stocks, as greed vanished and as fears continued to rise that the world central banks’ monetary policies have made “money good” investments bad
A see saw destruction of credit and equity is underway destroying liberalism’s economic growth and prosperity and introducing authoritarianism’s economic deflation and austerity, as well as establishing an investment demand for gold.
More details can be found in the linked post.
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