Sunday, March 30, 2014

Horizon Kinetics on "Corporate Risk Reduction"

From a new Horizon Kinetics research paper, "Corporate Risk Reduction" [pdf]:

Of course, the 12 companies—Apple, Exxon,Google, Microsoft, Johnson & Johnson, Chevron, Procter & Gamble, Pfizer, Verizon, IBM, AT&T, and Merck—are all very different businesses. On average, however, cash as a percent of total corporate assets is 23.3% for the group, and some companies, as one can see, are holding considerably more than that.

The 23.3% average is an interesting statistic. If portfolio managers were active and holding 23% cash in their portfolios, they would be considered reckless, at a minimum relative to their mandate to be invested in equities and to not assume other risks such as timing the market, and much worse than reckless, at a maximum. These companies, however, are holding cash at those levels. What is the difference, one might ask, if the companies hold a 23% cash balance and the managers hold a 23% cash balance? Is it not all the same? Actually, it is not, because the more cash on the balance sheet, the less volatile the equity is going to be. It is clear that the companies themselves are interested in reducing their volatility.
I like Horizon Kinetics, and I think his point is worthwhile as far as it goes. However, I am thinking something else about this corporate manager cash statistic. Unlike an investment manager, nobody cares if a CEO has a huge amount of cash or is underinvested. So they are more free to plan for low demand/deflationary trends. And that is what they appear to be doing.

1 comment:

James said...

What is the difference, one might ask, if the companies hold a 23% cash balance and the managers hold a 23% cash balance? Is it not all the same?

It's obviously not the same: corporations need to maintain cash balances to fund working capital; mutual funds don't.

Five of the companies on their list actually have negative tangible equity; the ones that do have significant net cash are all tech/pharmaceutical companies that are presumably hoarding money offshore to avoid taxes.