Thursday, September 11, 2014

More From "Vienna Capitalist"

Another good post, about mining:

"According to Austrian Business Cycle Theory (ABCT), during a credit boom those sectors that are most removed from ultimate consumption benefit the most during a credit boom. Due to the long-term nature of these projects interest cost is a relevant cost component, which gets lowered during the boom and hence ignites heavy activity. Needles to say: these sectors also disproportionally fall during the slump.

Now, there are few things further removed from consumption than mining. The credit boom in this case is China’s lending binge and the most remote sector impacted by the binge is the mining industry, which provides the main input for all that steel that goes into the empty skyscrapers. And in Australia’s case the whole economy is a derivative of the mining boom. China is the main reason why there has not been a recession in Oz for the past 20 years – not some superior central bank management or 'growth model.'"
He's short AUD/USD.

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