Thursday, November 20, 2014

Classified Ad: Scotch For Sale

A correspondent writes in with two bottles of investment grade scotch for sale:

Yamazaki Sherry Cask 2013 -- $800
Karuizawa 30 Year Old / Cask #8606 -- $1,500
Free hand delivery in Los Angeles, ask about shipping elsewhere.

The Yamazaki was named "world's best" by Jim Murray. Yeah, right - although undoubtedly tasty and worth trying.

Great presents or indulgence for anyone who has been long duration this year.


Stagflationary Mark said...

Great presents or indulgence for anyone who has been long duration this year.

Since I am holding long-term treasuries to maturity, I'm not sure I have a reason to indulge.

When long-term rates fall, my income stream doesn't change at all. Even though my bonds are currently worth more on paper, it doesn't make me any better off over the long-term.

It could also very well mean that when my bonds do mature and I wish to someday reinvest, I won't be getting a very good interest rate.

Hard to party!

It could be worse. I could be sitting in cash anxioiusly awaiting higher interest rates like so many others appear to be doing. As we are both aware, that has not been a good plan over the last 30 years or so.

It could be even worst than that though. Long-term TBT (UltraShort Barclays 20+ Year Treasury) investors must not have much left. Can you believe that fund was introduced in 2008 when oil was $116 a barrel? Moths to the flame.

Mount Falling Knife

The following chart shows the 10-year moving average of the 10-year treasury yield.

I've certainly watched many try to catch it over the years. Everyone who tries seems to think it is a sure thing. *shrug shoulders*

CP said...

Mount Falling Knife is great!


CP said...

BTW, the 2015 "market theme" predictions are starting to come out.

Any guesses?

"Sure we missed the falling interest rates this year, but next year they can't fall any more and so they'll rise."

Stagflationary Mark said...


Any guesses?

I'm feeling nostalgic.

Three More Years of Goldilocks? - Larry Kudlow, November 21, 2007

Hindsight shows it lasted exactly 9 more days, lol. Sigh.

Stagflationary Mark said...

Here's another one.

"Dividend growth will accelerate!"

As seen in the chart, bulls better hope the trend reverses first! Could happen. I wouldn't bet on it though.

Cole Berlin said...

I would like to buy the Yamazaki 2013. Please contact me at @ Hotmail. com