Wednesday, December 10, 2014

Not Too Late To Make Your 2015 Predictions!

It's not too late to add your list of five predictions to the 2015 predictions (80% confidence) post. So far we have 11!

Sure, you can get your predictions of a 4% yield on the ten year note from any bulge bracket bank. Where else are you going to get predictions about the price of a ShadowStats subscription, housing for millenials, and vehicle sales?

As one happy reader has already said,

"I like this post, so many different perspectives. Hope it grows more this year and becomes a tradition."
So, help grow it! I can offer a bottle of scotch to the winner of the contest.


Stagflationary Mark said...

I offer supporting evidence for one of my predictions.

30-Year Treasury Yield Prediction for 2015

bjdubbs said...

Brent tops $85.
Russia is strongest performing market.
Dollar closes at least 5c below 2014 close.
BBRY trades over $20.
Gold closes more than $100 above 2014 close.
XPO trades at least 40% below 2014 close.

whydibuy said...

The S&P will be up 10%+
Bank stocks will continue to be solid with good dividends
Hussman underperforms ( 100% confidence on this one )
Housing continues to do well
Earnings of S&P companies increase 10%

jHurt said...

1. Oil goes below $50
2. Government Motors hits $50
3. Sears hits $50 (adjusted for any REIT spinoff)
4. Yen trades to 140 (at 120 today)
5. Euro trades down to $1.15 ($1.24 today)

jHurt said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Biff said...

I think you should have another contest to have posters give their 90% confidence interval on the closing high and closing low of the S&P 500 in 2015.

I hate to give away the ending, but I'd bet that the S&P ends up outside far more than 10% of the predictions.

eah said...

>Brent tops $85.

Not sure about the price -- I'll go with $80.

But OPEC (yes, I also predict OPEC survives) cries uncle and lowers output. Past a point the price decline will be too painful for them, whereas many shale producers are hurting at a higher price point.