Tuesday, February 17, 2015



"Third, I believe we as observers tend to overestimate the permanence of trends/state of affairs which have lasted ten to fifteen years or more. That included the Great Moderation and that also includes Greece in the eurozone. In a broader historical perspective, the arrangement simply doesn’t make sense to me, as there is more than one Europe. So I am willing to predict its end. And the next year seems like a quite possible time for that end to come about. Fourth, I still don’t think enough commentators are stressing how much the creditor eurozone countries see this as a nested game, where concessions to Greece would have to imply larger concessions elsewhere and embolden Podemos in Spain."

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