Scoring the Credit Bubble Stocks 2016 Reader Predictions (Part II)
See previous post.
My score was 118%. The other scores were:
- 150%
- 18%
- -80% [Hall of Shame]
- 235%
- 9%
- 41%
- 272%
- 31%
- 200%
- 194%
- 135%
- 66%
- 5%
- 95%
- 450% [Winner!]
- -17%
Here's a table that compares and contrasts the winner and the "hall of shame" participant.
| Summary | Happened | Winner | Hall of Shame |
| USTs below 1.5% | 1 | 65% | 10% |
| S&P trades below 1,820.66 | 1 | 75% | 40% |
| S&P trades above 2134.72 | 1 | 75% | 35% |
| Crude trades below 30 | 1 | 100% | 55% |
| Trump elected | 1 | 60% | 25% |
| Republicans retain House and Senate | 1 | 100% | 25% |
| McClendon/Ward/Clinton/Pearson indicted | 1 | 50% | 10% |
| CHK, NAV, RIG, or SSE bankrupt | 1 | 10% | 15% |
| Autonomous vehicle | 1 | 100% | 95% |
| Unicorn liquidates below $250MM | 1 | 75% | 65% |
| USTs above 3.5% | -1 | 0% | 5% |
| 2yT yields more than 10yT | -1 | 0% | 5% |
| EURUSD parity | -1 | 75% | 70% |
| Gold trades below 1000 | -1 | 75% | 50% |
| Gold trades above 2000 | -1 | 0% | 15% |
| Crude trades above 62.58 | -1 | 0% | 55% |
| Kim/Merkel/Saudis deposed | -1 | 0% | 10% |
| Nuclear | -1 | 0% | 5% |
| Gross/Ackman/Miller/Hussman/Einhorn retire | -1 | 10% | 40% |
| Hussman up for the year | -1 | 0% | 40% |
| CMG trades below 300 | -1 | 0% | 15% |
| FB/AAPL/NFLX/GOOGL below 0% | -1 | 50% | 70% |
| BBB yield above 5% | -1 | 50% | 50% |
| Cat 3 hurricane landfall | -1 | 0% | 25% |
The winner put very high probabilities for stuff that happened and 0% for 9 things that didn't happen. People should try that approach for 2017.
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Individual results:
Panda, 150%
Louisiana, 18%
Blue Devil, -80%
Fist, 235%
isc, 9%
M, 41%
B, 272%
Troj, 31%
W, 200%
"John", 194%
bjw, 135%
JB, 66%
valueproct, 5%
Donut, 95%
Merrill, 450%
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