Thursday, January 3, 2019

Credit Bubble Stocks 2019 Prediction Contest

In our quest to continually improve the contest, we have a larger number of questions this year than last year and the year before. Please do not let that discourage you. The larger sample size should increase the likelihood that the winner is the best calibrated predictor.

All probabilities are due by this Sunday, January the 6th at 8 p.m. Pacific time. Post your probabilities in the comments section below. Either leave an email address or post using an account so that we can verify the winner's identity next year. (You could also leave a link to a Google Doc, etc.)

Finally, remember the logarithmic scoring system. As Wikipedia explains, "a prediction of 80% that correctly proved true would receive a score of ln(0.8) = -0.22. This same prediction also assigns 20% likelihood to the opposite case, and so if the prediction proves false, it would receive a score based on the 20%: ln(0.2) = -1.6. The goal of a forecaster is to maximize the score and for the score to be as large as possible, and -0.22 is indeed larger than -1.6."

Here are the questions, arranged by category:

Planet Earth
* A Category 3 hurricane makes landfall in the continental U.S (for the third year in a row).
* A tropical cyclone makes the list of 10 wettest on the U.S. Mainland (for the third year in a row).
* An earthquake of magnitude 7.5 or greater affects the continental United States.

Frauds and Bankruptcies
* Tesla gets a going concern warning, has its auditor resign, or Musk is arrested, indicted, leaves the company, or is fired.
* Musk's “Boring Company” is revealed to be digging tunnels to smuggle drugs into the United States.
* TSLA share price goes below $200 at any point.
* Any of GE, JCP, or FTR file for bankruptcy protection or propose a restructuring where existing equity will receive less than 10%.
* A Decacorn (nonpublic company, peak valuation >$10 billion) is uncovered as a fraud.

Other Happenings
* A year with no commercial jet aircraft fatal plane incidents.
* 2019 US vehicle sales (autos and light trucks/SUVs) are lower than 2018 vehicle sales.
* A players' strike occurs in any of the four major US sports leagues (NBA, NFL, MLB, NHL).
* Twitter is taken private.
* None of Uber, Lyft, Slack, Pinterest, Robin Hood, or Palantir complete an IPO or direct list their shares.

Political
* Donald Trump is still President of the United States at the end of the year.
* Donald Trump pardons anyone prosecuted by the Special Counsel.
* A primary challenger to Donald Trump emerges and polls higher than 10% with likely Republican voters.
* Any of the Democratic presidential debates in 2019 has 12 or more candidates appearing (including undercard).
* US ends daylight savings time.
* One or more of Kim/Merkel/Saudis loses power (dies, resigns, or is deposed).
* One or more of Macron, Trudeau, or Erdogan loses power (dies, resigns, or is deposed).
* A nuclear weapon is used in anger.
* Any member of Congress posts a video “twerking” (or similar) at the Capitol or in a Congressional building.

Old Geezers
* Either Buffett or Munger dies.
* Another Supreme Court seat opens.
* Any sort of #MeToo allegation is made against Warren Buffett in a mainstream newspaper.
* Pelosi is no longer the Speaker of House as of 12/31/19.
* Trump announces that he won't run again in 2020.
* One or more of Gross/Ackman/Miller/Hussman/Einhorn/Berkowitz leaves asset management in any manner.

Commodities & Currencies
* Cryptocurrency combined market cap on Coinmarketcap.com exceeds $1 trillion at any time during the year.
* The Flippening: Etherium market cap is greater than Bitcoin (core/classic) at any time during the year.
* The USD/RMB exchange rate goes over 8 at any time during the year.
* Any country leaves the Euro currency.
* A Euro hits $1 US. (EURUSD parity) at any time during the year.
* Crude (WTIC) trades above the 2018 high of $76.90 at any time during the year.
* Crude (WTIC) falls below the “modern” low of $26.05 at any time during the year.
* Western Canadian Select trades at a premium to WTI at any time during the year.
* USDJPY below 100 at any point during the year.
* USDJPY above 130 at any point during the year.

Federal Reserve
* Jerome Powell is no longer Fed Chairman on 12/31/19.
* Federal Reserve bank balance sheet total assets (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WALCL) declines to below $4 trillion.
* Federal Reserve bank balance sheet total assets (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WALCL) increase to above $5 trillion.
* Federal Reserve raises target rate two times (in 25bps equivalents) in 2019.
* Federal Reserve lowers target rate any times (in 25bps equivalents) in 2019.
* The 13-week T-bill yield ($IRX) exceeds 2.5% at any time during the year.
* The 13-week T-bill yield ($IRX) ends the year below 2%.

Sovereign Debt Bubbles
* Global negative yielding debt goes under $1 trillion at any time during the year.
* The 10 year Treasury yield falls below the July 6, 2016 low of 1.336% at any time during the year.
* The 10 year Treasury yield rises above the 2018 high yield of 3.24% at any time during the year.
* Any of the following countries' 10-year government bonds yield more than US at end of year: Germany, Italy, Canada.
* The 20+ year Treasury ETF (TLT) has a positive price return (not including dividends) for the year.

Asset Bubbles & Crashes
* Total return of 1 year T-bill outperforms S&P 500, Nasdaq, and bitcoin for the year.
* The S&P goes below 2,000 at any time during the year.
* The S&P goes above 3,000 at any time during the year.
* The BBB yield closes above 5% at any time during the year.
* A 2 year treasury yields more than 10 year Treasury at any time during the year.
* The S&P Retail ETF (XRT) outperforms Amazon for the year.
* Gold trades below $1000/oz at any time during the year.
* Gold trades above $2000/oz at any time during the year.
* Buying equal dollar basket of FB/AAPL/NFLX/GOOGL returns below 0% for the year (including dividends).
* The CBOE Volatility Index ($VIX) exceeds 40 at any time during the year.
* The CBOE Volatility Index ($VIX) exceeds its 2008 record of 89.53 at any time during the year.
* The most current 13F as of 12/31/19 of the Swiss National Bank shows a balance below $45 billion of equities.
* The S&P has its largest one day percentage decline in history (bigger than 10/19/87 of 20.5%).
* The S&P has a one day percentage decline greater than 7.5%.
* The S&P has a one day percentage increase greater than 7.5%.
* The Vanguard Balanced Index Fund (VBINX, 60/40) has a positive return for the year.
* Hussman's fund (HSGFX) is up for the entire year including dividends.

18 comments:

Anonymous said...

You should probably number them to keep the predictions responses short, but assuming they get numbered here are my predictions.
email: Lsvaluecap@gmail.com


Planet Earth
1. 0.6
2. 0.2
3. 0.15

Frauds and Bankruptcies
4. 0.90
5. 0.01
6. 0.97
7. 0.7
8. 0.1

Other Happenings
9. 0.97
10. 0.6
11. 0.03
12. 0.03
13. 0.1

Political
14. 0.6
15. 0.3
16. 0.8
17. 0.2
18. 0.02
19. 0.8
20. 0.6
21. 0.005
22. 1

Old Geezers
23. 0.35
24. 0.1
25. 0.15
26. 0.3
27. 0.2
28. 0.45

Commodities & Currencies
29. 0.15
30. 0.1
31. 0.65
32. 0.3
33. 0.3
34. 0.05
35. 0.05
36. 0.001
37. 0.3
38. 0.4

Federal Reserve
39. 0.25
40. 0.1
41. 0.45
42. 0.75
43. 0.4
44. 0.05
45. 0.85

Sovereign Debt Bubbles
46. 0.35
47. 0.1
48. 0.75
49. 0.15
50. 0.4

Asset Bubbles & Crashes
51. 0.03
52. 0.1
53. 0.2
54. 0.75
55. 0.8
56. 0.3
57. 0.02
58. 0.4
59. 0.4
60. 0.8
61. 0.1
62. 0.01
63. 0.01
64. 0.2
65. 0.1
66. 0.85
67. 0.7

CP said...

Just to confirm... 100% chance for #21?

It's actually easier if they aren't numbered but have the appropriate line spaces.

rick diamond said...

Planet Earth
1. .63
2. .05
3. .01

Frauds and Bankruptcies
4. .20
5. 0
6. .30
7. .10
8. .15

Other Happenings
.50
.85
0
0
.30

Political
.97
.08
.05
.35
0
.05
.05
0
.05

Old Geezers
.32
.10
.01
.03
0
.05

Commodities & Currencies
.01
.01
.05
.01
.04
.12
0
0
.03
0

Federal Reserve
* Jerome Powell is no longer Fed Chairman on 12/31/19. .01
* Federal Reserve bank balance sheet total assets (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WALCL) declines to below $4 trillion. .95
* Federal Reserve bank balance sheet total assets (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WALCL) increase to above $5 trillion. .05
* Federal Reserve raises target rate two times (in 25bps equivalents) in 2019. .5
* Federal Reserve lowers target rate any times (in 25bps equivalents) in 2019. .05
* The 13-week T-bill yield ($IRX) exceeds 2.5% at any time during the year. .21
* The 13-week T-bill yield ($IRX) ends the year below 2%. .05

Sovereign Debt Bubbles
* Global negative yielding debt goes under $1 trillion at any time during the year. .03
* The 10 year Treasury yield falls below the July 6, 2016 low of 1.336% at any time during the year. .03
* The 10 year Treasury yield rises above the 2018 high yield of 3.24% at any time during the year. .15
* Any of the following countries' 10-year government bonds yield more than US at end of year: Germany, Italy, Canada. .03
* The 20+ year Treasury ETF (TLT) has a positive price return (not including dividends) for the year. .20

Asset Bubbles & Crashes
* Total return of 1 year T-bill outperforms S&P 500, Nasdaq, and bitcoin for the year. .25
* The S&P goes below 2,000 at any time during the year. .25
* The S&P goes above 3,000 at any time during the year. .25
* The BBB yield closes above 5% at any time during the year. .30
* A 2 year treasury yields more than 10 year Treasury at any time during the year. .50
* The S&P Retail ETF (XRT) outperforms Amazon for the year. .20
* Gold trades below $1000/oz at any time during the year. .20
* Gold trades above $2000/oz at any time during the year. .01
* Buying equal dollar basket of FB/AAPL/NFLX/GOOGL returns below 0% for the year (including dividends). .30
* The CBOE Volatility Index ($VIX) exceeds 40 at any time during the year. .10
* The CBOE Volatility Index ($VIX) exceeds its 2008 record of 89.53 at any time during the year. .01
* The most current 13F as of 12/31/19 of the Swiss National Bank shows a balance below $45 billion of equities. .85
* The S&P has its largest one day percentage decline in history (bigger than 10/19/87 of 20.5%). .05
* The S&P has a one day percentage decline greater than 7.5%. .15
* The S&P has a one day percentage increase greater than 7.5%. .05
* The Vanguard Balanced Index Fund (VBINX, 60/40) has a positive return for the year. .25
* Hussman's fund (HSGFX) is up for the entire year including dividends. .15

innerscorecard said...

Planet Earth
* A Category 3 hurricane...50%
* A tropical cyclone...50%
* An earthquake of magnitude 7.5 or greater...33%

Frauds and Bankruptcies
* Tesla gets a going concern warning...33%
* Musk's “Boring Company” is revealed...0%
* TSLA share price...66%
* Any of GE, JCP, or FTR...50%
* A Decacorn...51%

Other Happenings
* A year with no...50%
* 2019 US vehicle sales...66%
* A players' strike occurs...33%
* Twitter is...10%
* None of Uber...5%

Political
* Donald Trump is still...90%
* Donald Trump pardons...66%
* A primary challenger...51%
* Any of the Democratic...1%
* US ends...1%
* One or more of Kim...33%
* One or more of Macron...33%
* A nuclear weapon is used...0%
* Any member of Congress posts...33%

Old Geezers
* Either Buffett...33%
* Another Supreme Courts...25%
* Any sort of #MeToo...1%
* Pelosi is...10%
* Trump announces...33%
* One or more of Gross...33%

Commodities & Currencies
* Cryptocurrency...1%
* The Flippening...10%
* The USD/RMB...33%
* Any country... 10%
* A Euro hits...33%
* Crude (WTIC) trades above...33%
* Crude (WTIC) falls below...10%
* Western Canadian Select trades...10%
* USDJPY below...66%
* USDJPY above...10%

Federal Reserve
* Jerome Powell is no longer...33%
* Federal Reserve... 51%
* Federal Reserve...10%
* Federal Reserve raises...33%
* Federal Reserve lowers...33%
* The 13-week T-bill yield ($IRX) exceeds...49%
* The 13-week T-bill yield ($IRX) ends...33%

Sovereign Debt Bubbles
* Global negative yielding debt goes under $1 trillion at any time during the year. 10%
* The 10 year Treasury yield falls below the July 6, 2016 low of 1.336% at any time during the year. 33%
* The 10 year Treasury yield rises above the 2018 high yield of 3.24% at any time during the year. 10%
* Any of the following countries' 10-year government bonds yield more than US at end of year: Germany, Italy, Canada. 49%
* The 20+ year Treasury ETF (TLT) has a positive price return (not including dividends) for the year. 80%

Asset Bubbles & Crashes
* Total return of 1 year T-bill outperforms S&P 500, Nasdaq, and bitcoin for the year. 50%
* The S&P goes below 2,000 at any time during the year. 51%
* The S&P goes above 3,000 at any time during the year. 20%
* The BBB yield closes above 5% at any time during the year. 33%
* A 2 year treasury yields more than 10 year Treasury at any time during the year. 80%
* The S&P Retail ETF (XRT) outperforms Amazon for the year. 50%
* Gold trades below $1000/oz at any time during the year. 10%
* Gold trades above $2000/oz at any time during the year. 10%
* Buying equal dollar basket of FB/AAPL/NFLX/GOOGL returns below 0% for the year (including dividends). 50%
* The CBOE Volatility Index ($VIX) exceeds 40 at any time during the year. 80%
* The CBOE Volatility Index ($VIX) exceeds its 2008 record of 89.53 at any time during the year. 33%
* The most current 13F as of 12/31/19 of the Swiss National Bank shows a balance below $45 billion of equities. 33%
* The S&P has its largest one day percentage decline in history (bigger than 10/19/87 of 20.5%). 10%
* The S&P has a one day percentage decline greater than 7.5%. 33%
* The S&P has a one day percentage increase greater than 7.5%. 33%
* The Vanguard Balanced Index Fund (VBINX, 60/40) has a positive return for the year. 49%
* Hussman's fund (HSGFX) is up for the entire year including dividends. 51%

bjdubbs said...

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1piMYzEhZ-dIS4qY8fm1h1I20LqeI0gSAIzUUkzU15OY/edit?usp=sharing

It's not clear whether "jet fatality" refers to US or worldwide so I included both.

ACV said...

Planet Earth
* A Category 3 hurricane...60%
* A tropical cyclone...30%
* An earthquake of magnitude 7.5 or greater...5%

Frauds and Bankruptcies
* Tesla gets a going concern warning...33%
* Musk's “Boring Company” is revealed...1%
* TSLA share price...66%
* Any of GE, JCP, or FTR...40%
* A Decacorn...15%

Other Happenings
* A year with no...15%
* 2019 US vehicle sales...80%
* A players' strike occurs...1%
* Twitter is...5%
* None of Uber...10%

Political
* Donald Trump is still...90%
* Donald Trump pardons...20%
* A primary challenger...60%
* Any of the Democratic...80%
* US ends...1%
* One or more of Kim...15%
* One or more of Macron...20%
* A nuclear weapon is used...1%
* Any member of Congress posts...2%

Old Geezers
* Either Buffett...25%
* Another Supreme Courts...25%
* Any sort of #MeToo...1%
* Pelosi is...10%
* Trump announces...25%
* One or more of Gross...20%

Commodities & Currencies
* Cryptocurrency...1%
* The Flippening...5%
* The USD/RMB...20%
* Any country... 5%
* A Euro hits...20%
* Crude (WTIC) trades above...20%
* Crude (WTIC) falls below...1%
* Western Canadian Select trades...5%
* USDJPY below...15%
* USDJPY above...15%

Federal Reserve
* Jerome Powell is no longer...10%
* Federal Reserve... 50%
* Federal Reserve...10%
* Federal Reserve raises...70%
* Federal Reserve lowers...15%
* The 13-week T-bill yield ($IRX) exceeds...40%
* The 13-week T-bill yield ($IRX) ends...20%

Sovereign Debt Bubbles
* Global negative yielding debt goes under $1 trillion at any time during the year. 10%
* The 10 year Treasury yield falls below the July 6, 2016 low of 1.336% at any time during the year. 10%
* The 10 year Treasury yield rises above the 2018 high yield of 3.24% at any time during the year. 20%
* Any of the following countries' 10-year government bonds yield more than US at end of year: Germany, Italy, Canada. 15%
* The 20+ year Treasury ETF (TLT) has a positive price return (not including dividends) for the year. 30%

Asset Bubbles & Crashes
* Total return of 1 year T-bill outperforms S&P 500, Nasdaq, and bitcoin for the year. 40%
* The S&P goes below 2,000 at any time during the year. 40%
* The S&P goes above 3,000 at any time during the year. 20%
* The BBB yield closes above 5% at any time during the year. 40%
* A 2 year treasury yields more than 10 year Treasury at any time during the year. 40%
* The S&P Retail ETF (XRT) outperforms Amazon for the year. 65%
* Gold trades below $1000/oz at any time during the year. 10%
* Gold trades above $2000/oz at any time during the year. 10%
* Buying equal dollar basket of FB/AAPL/NFLX/GOOGL returns below 0% for the year (including dividends). 80%
* The CBOE Volatility Index ($VIX) exceeds 40 at any time during the year. 70%
* The CBOE Volatility Index ($VIX) exceeds its 2008 record of 89.53 at any time during the year. 5%
* The most current 13F as of 12/31/19 of the Swiss National Bank shows a balance below $45 billion of equities. 50%
* The S&P has its largest one day percentage decline in history (bigger than 10/19/87 of 20.5%). 3%
* The S&P has a one day percentage decline greater than 7.5%. 7%
* The S&P has a one day percentage increase greater than 7.5%. 7%
* The Vanguard Balanced Index Fund (VBINX, 60/40) has a positive return for the year. 30%
* Hussman's fund (HSGFX) is up for the entire year including dividends. 40%

Anonymous said...

Another Supreme Court seat will open and it will not be Ruth Ginsburg.

Many journalists financial records will have been exposed that show they have taken huge sums of money from foreign sources to write stories critical of Trump.

Elon Musk will resign from Tesla and the stock will soar above $500.

A hugely popular rock and roll star will die on stage.



CP said...

Bjd-

Thanks for joining us again this year.

The commercial aviation one is worldwide. That was because of the luck in 2017:

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-aviation-safety/2017-safest-year-on-record-for-commercial-passenger-air-travel-groups-idUSKBN1EQ17L

Which unfortunately was not repeated in 2018.

Jason said...

Planet Earth
* A Category 3 hurricane... 25%
* A tropical cyclone... 50%
* An earthquake of magnitude 7.5 or greater... 65%

Frauds and Bankruptcies
* Tesla gets a going concern warning... 35%
* Musk's “Boring Company” is revealed... 1%
* TSLA share price... 50%
* Any of GE, JCP, or FTR... 50%
* A Decacorn... 5%

Other Happenings
* A year with no... 70%
* 2019 US vehicle sales... 70%
* A players' strike occurs... 15%
* Twitter is... 20%
* None of Uber... 5%

Political
* Donald Trump is still... 80%
* Donald Trump pardons... 30%
* A primary challenger... 70%
* Any of the Democratic... 10%
* US ends... 5%
* One or more of Kim... 25%
* One or more of Macron... 25%
* A nuclear weapon is used... 1%
* Any member of Congress posts... 5%

Old Geezers
* Either Buffett... 25%
* Another Supreme Courts... 10%
* Any sort of #MeToo... 10%
* Pelosi is... 33%
* Trump announces... 20%
* One or more of Gross... 25%

Commodities & Currencies
* Cryptocurrency... 1%
* The Flippening... 1%
* The USD/RMB... 20%
* Any country... 10%
* A Euro hits... 50%
* Crude (WTIC) trades above... 20%
* Crude (WTIC) falls below... 10%
* Western Canadian Select trades... 5%
* USDJPY below... 25%
* USDJPY above... 5%

Federal Reserve
* Jerome Powell is no longer... 20%
* Federal Reserve... 60%
* Federal Reserve... 10%
* Federal Reserve raises... 75%
* Federal Reserve lowers... 10%
* The 13-week T-bill yield ($IRX) exceeds... 50%
* The 13-week T-bill yield ($IRX) ends... 10%

Sovereign Debt Bubbles
* Global negative yielding debt ... 33%
* The 10 year Treasury yield falls... 10%
* The 10 year Treasury yield rises ... 50%
* Any of the following countries' ... 50%
* The 20+ year Treasury ETF (TLT) ... 50%

Asset Bubbles & Crashes
* Total return of 1 year T-bill ... 50%
* The S&P goes below 2,000... 50%
* The S&P goes above 3,000 ... 20%
* The BBB yield closes above 5% ... 75%
* A 2 year treasury yields more ... 75%
* The S&P Retail ETF (XRT) outperforms Amazon for the year... 50%
* Gold trades below $1000/oz at any time during the year... 10%
* Gold trades above $2000/oz at any time during the year... 50%
* Buying equal dollar basket of ... 50%
* The CBOE Volatility Index ($VIX) exceeds 40 at any time during the year. 80%
* The CBOE Volatility Index ($VIX) exceeds its 2008 record... 5%
* The most current 13F as of 12/31/19 of the Swiss National Bank shows a balance below $45 billion of equities... 33%
* The S&P has its largest one day percentage decline... 5%
* The S&P has a one day percentage decline greater than 7.5%... 33%
* The S&P has a one day percentage increase greater than 7.5%... 33%
* The Vanguard Balanced Index Fund (VBINX, 60/40) has a positive return for the year... 25%
* Hussman's fund (HSGFX) is up for the entire year including dividends... 5%

Ian Bezek said...

Planet Earth
* A Category 3 hurricane...50%
* A tropical cyclone...40%
* An earthquake of magnitude 7.5 or greater...15%

Frauds and Bankruptcies
* Tesla gets a going concern warning...40%
* Musk's “Boring Company” is revealed...0%
* TSLA share price...50%
* Any of GE, JCP, or FTR...55%
* A Decacorn...25%

Other Happenings
* A year with no...28%
* 2019 US vehicle sales...75%
* A players' strike occurs...5%
* Twitter is...12%
* None of Uber...15%

Political
* Donald Trump is still...93%
* Donald Trump pardons...25%
* A primary challenger...50%
* Any of the Democratic...90%
* US ends...0%
* One or more of Kim...10%
* One or more of Macron...25%
* A nuclear weapon is used...0%
* Any member of Congress posts...3%

Old Geezers
* Either Buffett...35%
* Another Supreme Courts...40%
* Any sort of #MeToo...1%
* Pelosi is...5%
* Trump announces...15%
* One or more of Gross...40%

Commodities & Currencies
* Cryptocurrency...3%
* The Flippening...3%
* The USD/RMB...10%
* Any country... 10%
* A Euro hits...25%
* Crude (WTIC) trades above...25%
* Crude (WTIC) falls below...10%
* Western Canadian Select trades...3%
* USDJPY below...40%
* USDJPY above...5%

Federal Reserve
* Jerome Powell is no longer...10%
* Federal Reserve... 65%
* Federal Reserve...5%
* Federal Reserve raises...40%
* Federal Reserve lowers...10%
* The 13-week T-bill yield ($IRX) exceeds...60%
* The 13-week T-bill yield ($IRX) ends...15%

Sovereign Debt Bubbles
* Global negative yielding debt goes under $1 trillion at any time during the year. 20%
* The 10 year Treasury yield falls below the July 6, 2016 low of 1.336% at any time during the year. 2%
* The 10 year Treasury yield rises above the 2018 high yield of 3.24% at any time during the year. 50%
* Any of the following countries' 10-year government bonds yield more than US at end of year: Germany, Italy, Canada. 35%
* The 20+ year Treasury ETF (TLT) has a positive price return (not including dividends) for the year. 30%

Asset Bubbles & Crashes
* Total return of 1 year T-bill outperforms S&P 500, Nasdaq, and bitcoin for the year. 25%
* The S&P goes below 2,000 at any time during the year. 25%
* The S&P goes above 3,000 at any time during the year. 50%
* The BBB yield closes above 5% at any time during the year. 50%
* A 2 year treasury yields more than 10 year Treasury at any time during the year. 40%
* The S&P Retail ETF (XRT) outperforms Amazon for the year. 50%
* Gold trades below $1000/oz at any time during the year. 10%
* Gold trades above $2000/oz at any time during the year. 3%
* Buying equal dollar basket of FB/AAPL/NFLX/GOOGL returns below 0% for the year (including dividends). 30%
* The CBOE Volatility Index ($VIX) exceeds 40 at any time during the year. 40%
* The CBOE Volatility Index ($VIX) exceeds its 2008 record of 89.53 at any time during the year. 3%
* The most current 13F as of 12/31/19 of the Swiss National Bank shows a balance below $45 billion of equities. 40%
* The S&P has its largest one day percentage decline in history (bigger than 10/19/87 of 20.5%). 1%
* The S&P has a one day percentage decline greater than 7.5%. 5%
* The S&P has a one day percentage increase greater than 7.5%. 5%
* The Vanguard Balanced Index Fund (VBINX, 60/40) has a positive return for the year. 60%
* Hussman's fund (HSGFX) is up for the entire year including dividends. 30%

ianbezek AT yahoo dot com

Michael Goode said...

Planet Earth
.70
.40
.20

Frauds and Bankruptcies
.69
0
.83
.40
.08

Other Happenings
.60
.80
.05
.05
.10

Political
.95
.28
.70
.75
0
.18
.15
.01
.01

Old Geezers
.14
.09
.01
.11
.22
.01

Commodities & Currencies
0
.01
.10
.18
.18
.05
0
0
.03
.02

Federal Reserve
.12
.21
.08
.75
.04
.74
.18

Sovereign Debt Bubbles
.51
.07
.26
.29
.17

Asset Bubbles & Crashes
.61
.41
.21
.51
.62
.50
.50
.01
.50
.50
.11
.43
.01
.21
.12
.52
.48

I just want to see how dumb I look at the end of the year and guarantee some of my answers are mutually contradictory.

Michael Goode said...

Couldn't you do this a lot easier using Google Forms? https://www.google.com/forms/about/

Tom said...

Item Odds
* A Category 3 hurricane makes landfall in the con... 0.4
* A tropical cyclone makes the list of 10 wettest ... 0.06
* An earthquake of magnitude 7.5 or greater affect... 0.01

Frauds and Bankruptcies
* Tesla gets a going concern warning, has its audi... 0.45
* Musk's “Boring Company” is revealed to be diggin... 0.01
* TSLA share price goes below $200 at any point. 0.6
* Any of GE, JCP, or FTR file for bankruptcy prote... 0.4
* A Decacorn (nonpublic company, peak valuation >$... 0.35

Other Happenings
* A year with no commercial jet aircraft fatal pla... 0.09
* 2019 US vehicle sales (autos and light trucks/SU... 0.55
* A players' strike occurs in any of the four majo... 0.08
* Twitter is taken private. 0.15
* None of Uber, Lyft, Slack, Pinterest, Robin Hood... 0.1

Political
* Donald Trump is still President of the United St... 0.87
* Donald Trump pardons anyone prosecuted by the Sp... 0.3
* A primary challenger to Donald Trump emerges and... 0.7
* Any of the Democratic presidential debates in 20... 0.7
* US ends daylight savings time. 0.05
* One or more of Kim/Merkel/Saudis loses power (di... 0.5
* One or more of Macron, Trudeau, or Erdogan loses... 0.5
* A nuclear weapon is used in anger. 0.01
* Any member of Congress posts a video “twerking” ... 0.07

Old Geezers
* Either Buffett or Munger dies. 0.21
* Another Supreme Court seat opens. 0.22
* Any sort of #MeToo allegation is made against Wa... 0.1
* Pelosi is no longer the Speaker of House as of 1... 0.05
* Trump announces that he won't run again in 2020. 0.15
* One or more of Gross/Ackman/Miller/Hussman/Einho... 0.22

Commodities & Currencies
* Cryptocurrency combined market cap on Coinmarket... 0.01
* The Flippening: Etherium market cap is greater t... 0.1
* The USD/RMB exchange rate goes over 8 at any tim... 0.15
* Any country leaves the Euro currency. 0.08
* A Euro hits $1 US. (EURUSD parity) at any time d... 0.2
* Crude (WTIC) trades above the 2018 high of $76.9... 0.2
* Crude (WTIC) falls below the “modern” low of $26... 0.05
* Western Canadian Select trades at a premium to W... 0.02
* USDJPY below 100 at any point during the year. 0.2
* USDJPY above 130 at any point during the year. 0.02

Federal Reserve
* Jerome Powell is no longer Fed Chairman on 12/31... 0.1
* Federal Reserve bank balance sheet total assets ... 0.6
* Federal Reserve bank balance sheet total assets ... 0.15
* Federal Reserve raises target rate two times (in... 0.6
* Federal Reserve lowers target rate any times (in... 0.7
* The 13-week T-bill yield ($IRX) exceeds 2.5% at ... 0.6
* The 13-week T-bill yield ($IRX) ends the year be... 0.1

Sovereign Debt Bubbles
* Global negative yielding debt goes under $1 tril... 0.3
* The 10 year Treasury yield falls below the July ... 0.03
* The 10 year Treasury yield rises above the 2018 ... 0.6
* Any of the following countries' 10-year governme... 0.5
* The 20+ year Treasury ETF (TLT) has a positive p... 0.2

Asset Bubbles & Crashes
* Total return of 1 year T-bill outperforms S&P 50... 0.6
* The S&P goes below 2,000 at any time during the ... 0.6
* The S&P goes above 3,000 at any time during the ... 0.05
* The BBB yield closes above 5% at any time during... 0.7
* A 2 year treasury yields more than 10 year Treas... 0.55
* The S&P Retail ETF (XRT) outperforms Amazon for ... 0.5
* Gold trades below $1000/oz at any time during th... 0.4
* Gold trades above $2000/oz at any time during th... 0.05
* Buying equal dollar basket of FB/AAPL/NFLX/GOOGL... 0.65
* The CBOE Volatility Index ($VIX) exceeds 40 at a... 0.6
* The CBOE Volatility Index ($VIX) exceeds its 200... 0.5
* The most current 13F as of 12/31/19 of the Swiss... 0.2
* The S&P has its largest one day percentage decli... 0.05
* The S&P has a one day percentage decline greater... 0.4
* The S&P has a one day percentage increase greate... 0.3
* The Vanguard Balanced Index Fund (VBINX, 60/40) ... 0.4
* Hussman's fund (HSGFX) is up for the entire year... 0.6

Tom said...

You should set this up as a Google Sheets survey next year. This year I had to keep trimming the text in Excel to get it to post (4096 character limit). If you setup as a survey, you'd get a timestamp and then would be in easy form to score. Could post a view only link once deadline hits to show guesses publicly.

wildcat said...

Planet Earth
* A Category 3 hurricane...75%
* A tropical cyclone...35%
* An earthquake of magnitude 7.5 or greater...10%

Frauds and Bankruptcies
* Tesla gets a going concern warning...5%
* Musk's “Boring Company” is revealed...0%
* TSLA share price...25%
* Any of GE, JCP, or FTR...65%
* A Decacorn...20%

Other Happenings
* A year with no...75%
* 2019 US vehicle sales...50% (I assume this is *new* vehicle sales)
* A players' strike occurs...15%
* Twitter is...10%
* None of Uber...15%

Political
* Donald Trump is still...85%
* Donald Trump pardons...60%
* A primary challenger...70%
* Any of the Democratic...10%
* US ends...5%
* One or more of Kim...25%
* One or more of Macron...20%
* A nuclear weapon is used...0%
* Any member of Congress posts...10%

Old Geezers
* Either Buffett...5%
* Another Supreme Courts...25%
* Any sort of #MeToo...5%
* Pelosi is...5%
* Trump announces...15%
* One or more of Gross...40%

Commodities & Currencies
* Cryptocurrency...2%
* The Flippening...5%
* The USD/RMB...20%
* Any country... 10%
* A Euro hits...25%
* Crude (WTIC) trades above...20%
* Crude (WTIC) falls below...10%
* Western Canadian Select trades...1%
* USDJPY below...50%
* USDJPY above...15%

Federal Reserve
* Jerome Powell is no longer...20%
* Federal Reserve... 50%
* Federal Reserve...5%
* Federal Reserve raises...30%
* Federal Reserve lowers...20%
* The 13-week T-bill yield ($IRX) exceeds...50%
* The 13-week T-bill yield ($IRX) ends...20%

Sovereign Debt Bubbles
* Global negative yielding debt goes under $1 trillion at any time during the year. 25%
* The 10 year Treasury yield falls below the July 6, 2016 low of 1.336% at any time during the year. 30%
* The 10 year Treasury yield rises above the 2018 high yield of 3.24% at any time during the year. 10%
* Any of the following countries' 10-year government bonds yield more than US at end of year: Germany, Italy, Canada. 35%
* The 20+ year Treasury ETF (TLT) has a positive price return (not including dividends) for the year. 75%

Asset Bubbles & Crashes
* Total return of 1 year T-bill outperforms S&P 500, Nasdaq, and bitcoin for the year. 50%
* The S&P goes below 2,000 at any time during the year. 15%
* The S&P goes above 3,000 at any time during the year. 10%
* The BBB yield closes above 5% at any time during the year. 35%
* A 2 year treasury yields more than 10 year Treasury at any time during the year. 75%
* The S&P Retail ETF (XRT) outperforms Amazon for the year. 50%
* Gold trades below $1000/oz at any time during the year. 5%
* Gold trades above $2000/oz at any time during the year. 5%
* Buying equal dollar basket of FB/AAPL/NFLX/GOOGL returns below 0% for the year (including dividends). 50%
* The CBOE Volatility Index ($VIX) exceeds 40 at any time during the year. 75%
* The CBOE Volatility Index ($VIX) exceeds its 2008 record of 89.53 at any time during the year. 25%
* The most current 13F as of 12/31/19 of the Swiss National Bank shows a balance below $45 billion of equities. 30%
* The S&P has its largest one day percentage decline in history (bigger than 10/19/87 of 20.5%). 10%
* The S&P has a one day percentage decline greater than 7.5%. 15%
* The S&P has a one day percentage increase greater than 7.5%. 5%
* The Vanguard Balanced Index Fund (VBINX, 60/40) has a positive return for the year. 60%
* Hussman's fund (HSGFX) is up for the entire year including dividends. 51%

Anonymous said...

You people will really give me 1,000 to 1 on my money if Musk is using those tunnels to smuggle drugs? How much can I buy?

Walter said...

Planet Earth
* A Category 3 hurricane makes landfall in the continental U.S (for the third year in a row). 70%
* A tropical cyclone makes the list of 10 wettest on the U.S. Mainland (for the third year in a row). 40%
* An earthquake of magnitude 7.5 or greater affects the continental United States. 10%

Frauds and Bankruptcies
* Tesla gets a going concern warning, has its auditor resign, or Musk is arrested, indicted, leaves the company, or is fired. 50%
* Musk's “Boring Company” is revealed to be digging tunnels to smuggle drugs into the United States. 0%
* TSLA share price goes below $200 at any point. 70%
* Any of GE, JCP, or FTR file for bankruptcy protection or propose a restructuring where existing equity will receive less than 10%. 50%
* A Decacorn (nonpublic company, peak valuation >$10 billion) is uncovered as a fraud. 20%

Other Happenings
* A year with no commercial jet aircraft fatal plane incidents. 50%
* 2019 US vehicle sales (autos and light trucks/SUVs) are lower than 2018 vehicle sales. 50%
* A players' strike occurs in any of the four major US sports leagues (NBA, NFL, MLB, NHL). 20%
* Twitter is taken private. 10%
* None of Uber, Lyft, Slack, Pinterest, Robin Hood, or Palantir complete an IPO or direct list their shares. 5%

Political
* Donald Trump is still President of the United States at the end of the year. 70%
* Donald Trump pardons anyone prosecuted by the Special Counsel. 30%
* A primary challenger to Donald Trump emerges and polls higher than 10% with likely Republican voters. 50%
* Any of the Democratic presidential debates in 2019 has 12 or more candidates appearing (including undercard). 50%
* US ends daylight savings time. 0%
* One or more of Kim/Merkel/Saudis loses power (dies, resigns, or is deposed). 20%
* One or more of Macron, Trudeau, or Erdogan loses power (dies, resigns, or is deposed). 20%
* A nuclear weapon is used in anger. 0%
* Any member of Congress posts a video “twerking” (or similar) at the Capitol or in a Congressional building. 0%

Old Geezers
* Either Buffett or Munger dies. 30%
* Another Supreme Court seat opens. 30%
* Any sort of #MeToo allegation is made against Warren Buffett in a mainstream newspaper. 0%
* Pelosi is no longer the Speaker of House as of 12/31/19. 20%
* Trump announces that he won't run again in 2020. 40%
* One or more of Gross/Ackman/Miller/Hussman/Einhorn/Berkowitz leaves asset management in any manner. 60%

Commodities & Currencies
* Cryptocurrency combined market cap on Coinmarketcap.com exceeds $1 trillion at any time during the year. 5%
* The Flippening: Etherium market cap is greater than Bitcoin (core/classic) at any time during the year. 10%
* The USD/RMB exchange rate goes over 8 at any time during the year. 30%
* Any country leaves the Euro currency. 10%
* A Euro hits $1 US. (EURUSD parity) at any time during the year. 30%
* Crude (WTIC) trades above the 2018 high of $76.90 at any time during the year. 30%
* Crude (WTIC) falls below the “modern” low of $26.05 at any time during the year. 20%
* Western Canadian Select trades at a premium to WTI at any time during the year. 5%
* USDJPY below 100 at any point during the year. 30%
* USDJPY above 130 at any point during the year. 20%

Walter said...


Federal Reserve
* Jerome Powell is no longer Fed Chairman on 12/31/19. 5%
* Federal Reserve bank balance sheet total assets (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WALCL) declines to below $4 trillion. 60%
* Federal Reserve bank balance sheet total assets (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WALCL) increase to above $5 trillion. 10%
* Federal Reserve raises target rate two times (in 25bps equivalents) in 2019. 30%
* Federal Reserve lowers target rate any times (in 25bps equivalents) in 2019. 20%
* The 13-week T-bill yield ($IRX) exceeds 2.5% at any time during the year. 30%
* The 13-week T-bill yield ($IRX) ends the year below 2%. 30%

Sovereign Debt Bubbles
* Global negative yielding debt goes under $1 trillion at any time during the year. 20%
* The 10 year Treasury yield falls below the July 6, 2016 low of 1.336% at any time during the year. 20%
* The 10 year Treasury yield rises above the 2018 high yield of 3.24% at any time during the year. 20%
* Any of the following countries' 10-year government bonds yield more than US at end of year: Germany, Italy, Canada. 50%
* The 20+ year Treasury ETF (TLT) has a positive price return (not including dividends) for the year. 50%

Asset Bubbles & Crashes
* Total return of 1 year T-bill outperforms S&P 500, Nasdaq, and bitcoin for the year. 30%
* The S&P goes below 2,000 at any time during the year. 30%
* The S&P goes above 3,000 at any time during the year. 30%
* The BBB yield closes above 5% at any time during the year. 60%
* A 2 year treasury yields more than 10 year Treasury at any time during the year. 70%
* The S&P Retail ETF (XRT) outperforms Amazon for the year. 60%
* Gold trades below $1000/oz at any time during the year. 20%
* Gold trades above $2000/oz at any time during the year. 10%
* Buying equal dollar basket of FB/AAPL/NFLX/GOOGL returns below 0% for the year (including dividends). 40%
* The CBOE Volatility Index ($VIX) exceeds 40 at any time during the year. 60%
* The CBOE Volatility Index ($VIX) exceeds its 2008 record of 89.53 at any time during the year. 5%
* The most current 13F as of 12/31/19 of the Swiss National Bank shows a balance below $45 billion of equities. 20%
* The S&P has its largest one day percentage decline in history (bigger than 10/19/87 of 20.5%). 0%
* The S&P has a one day percentage decline greater than 7.5%. 5%
* The S&P has a one day percentage increase greater than 7.5%. 5%
* The Vanguard Balanced Index Fund (VBINX, 60/40) has a positive return for the year. 60%
* Hussman's fund (HSGFX) is up for the entire year including dividends. 30%