Saturday, November 30, 2019

Looking Back on the Credit Bubble Stocks 2019 Prediction Contest

We are coming to the end of the 2019 prediction contest. (See the questions and the crowd consensus on probabilities.)

Longtime participant and prescient prediction suggester Barbarian Capital wrote in to say, "Looking at my suggestions from last year as I am thinking about next year's..." See below:


Financial (NEW)
- GE or TSLA or PG&E: chapter 11 or substantial equity dilution or restructuring of liabilities >>> PGC Chapter 11! 
- Low vol (50/50 USMV SPLV) underperforms SPY on a total return basis >>> neck in neck YTD
- Lloyd Blankfein is criminally charged in the US in relation to the MDB1 scandal >>> does not look like it... GS settlement talks 
- At least one Theranos BOD member is criminally charged in the US in relation to Theranos >>> not happening!
- SEC approves a cryptocurrency ETF >>> shot down another proposal I think 
- AMZN HQ2 is materially modified (current status 2x 25k jobs over 10 yrs in NYC and NoVA; subsidies in the billions) >>> BLEW UP!
- More than 10% of US AMZN workforce vote to, or joins, a union > nope
- FNMA and/or FMCC trade below $0.10 at any time during 2019   >> nope 
- The price return of a basket of KKR BX CG APO is below that of XLF price return for 2019 >>> PE outperformed by quite a bit
- Uber, Lyft, Slack, Pinterest, Palantir, Robin Hood: the median price return of all entities that IPO in 2019 is negative for 2019 from IPO price >>> YAS, the IPOs were weak
- Formal attempt by the US government to use anti-trust against any "Big Tech" member >>> House Anti Trust panel is seeking docs
- Facebook pays or agrees to pay $10 bn or more in relation to advertising fraud >>> paid $40 mm settlement in a private party suit
- Western Canadian Select trades at a premium to WTI at any time (in USD terms; in 2018 the discount ranged between ~$10-$52) >>> nope (it has never traded above)
- The most current 13F as of 12/31/19 of the Swiss National Bank shows a balance below $45 billion (current $89.769 bn) (filings) >>> not happening 
- SEC announces plans to no longer require quarterly reporting by US public filers >>> nope 
- US student loans drop below 1,563.5927 bn (balance as of most recent FRED data) >>> nope, 1.638 rn
- A US regulator imposes a material new restriction on Credit Default Swaps >>> nope
- A US regulator imposes a material new restrictions on equity shortselling at any time for any period in 2019 >>> nope; serious convos in the EU 
- The SPY has at least one -5% day>> not so far
- At least one $1 bn+ AUM US fixed income ETF closes at a 10% or greater discount to NAV on at least one trading day >> have not seen that 
- Case Shiller NYC condo index drops below 250 (most recent 274.82, published Nov 18)  >> 272 currently, SALT is starting to bite IMO. This or NJ or CT house index is a proxy for taxpayer flight. 

Finance x Politics (NEW)
- Congress passes a bill that presents a major curtailment of cash returns to shareholders (limitations on buybacks and/or dividends) >>> no, but is a campaign issue
- Congress passes a bill that introduces a federal net worth based tax >>> no, but is a campaign issue
- Congress passes a bill that reverses the SALT situation from the DJT tax cuts >> nope
- Congress passes a bill that substantially changes established retirement savings accounts (IRAs, 401k, 453, 457 etc.) >>> nope 
- Congress passes a bill that substantially modifies the current student loan situation (eligible for bankruptcy discharge pari passu with other debt, lifetime payments limit for all, etc.) >> no, but is a campaign issue
- Congress passes a bill that introduces a universal single payer healthcare system ("Medicare for All" type) >>> no, but is a campaign issue
- Congress passes a bill that substantially harms the profitability of pharma cos (ie drug price negotiations or IP modifications) >>> nope 
- Congress passes a bill that substantially introduces a points-based immigration system >>> nope 

Political (NEW)
- DJT announces/is prevented from/or equivalent outcome that he will not seek re-election in 2020 > no
- DJT pardons any family member or formal campaign staffer by 12/31/19 (12/31/19 included) > no
- DJT Jr. is suspended or banned from Twitter at any time during 2019  > no
- Pelosi is no longer the House leader as of 12/31/19 (she has a multi-year deal starting in Jan) > no
- One or more states establish a resident "exit tax" based on net worth and/or future income > no but NYS is auditing 100% of high income earners who move
- Federal voter photo ID becomes the law of the land > no
- Xi and DJT physically meet five or more times  > no but trade negs are still daily headlines 
- Macron, Trudeau and/or Erdogan no longer head of state on 12/31/19 (not in the position, plans do not count) > still there 
- Jerome Powell is no longer Fed Chairman on 12/31/19 (not in the position, plans do not count) >> getting more interesting 
- Ukraine and/or Russia formally declare war on the other party by 12/31/19 > no
- Recreational pot legal in all 50 US states > no but SAFE act advances 
- Any current US state votes on a split (referendum or state reps) >> no 
- Any current US state votes on secession from the union (referendum or state reps) >> no
- A named executive officer ("NEO") of any US S&P 500 company is detained in Mainland China, Hong Kong or Macau for any reason >> no
- Kanye West, Kim K, Scarmucci and/or Tiffany Trump have a formal White House role at any time during 2019 >> no

Other (NEW)
- NYC sets a new high temperature record (currently 106F) >> no
- NYC sets a new low temperature record (currently -15F) >> no
- Number of Americans giving up US passports (on an LTM basis as of 12/31/19) is more than 6,000 (LTM as of 12/15/18 is around 4,000, tables here)  >> lower YTD
- the XFL substantially delays or fails to launch (Jan/Feb 2020 scheduled start) >> still scheduled
- Conor McGregor has no UFC belt on 12/31/19 (incl from any 12/31/19 event) >> lost both 
- Brazilian jiu-jitsu is declared a Summer Olympic sport >> no
- Most recent data on the Harvard class Asian ethnicity percentage goes above 28% (most recent data, class of 2022 is 22.9%) >> up to 25.3% 
- "Class of 2019" mean total SAT score moves by +/- 20 or more points vs. Class of 2018 at 1068 (College Board data) >> mean score down to 1059
- Substantive #MeToo allegations against Warren Buffett published in NYT/WSJ/WaPo/LAT >> no

2 comments:

eahilf said...

"- GE or TSLA or PG&E: chapter 11 or substantial equity dilution or restructuring of liabilities >>> PGC Chapter 11!"

PCG, not PGC

eahilf said...

So if PG&E (PCG) were to decide that providing electric power in areas of high fire risk was not in the best interest of the company, eg because they couldn't obtain adequate liability insurance at an affordable cost, would the state of CA allow them to stop service to those areas?