## Wednesday, January 8, 2020

### 2020 Prediction Contest

The 2019 prediction contest is over with the prize winner announced - it is time for the 2020 version!

In our quest to continually improve the contest, we have a larger number of questions this year than in earlier years. Please do not let that discourage you. The larger sample size should increase the likelihood that the winner is the best calibrated predictor.

All probabilities are due by this Sunday, January the 12th at noon Pacific time. Post your probabilities in the comments section below. Either leave an email address, a twitter handle, or post using an account so that we can verify the winner's identity next year. (You could also leave a link to a Google Doc, etc.) Please leave a Twitter handle in any case as we will try to give some periodic updates "@" people throughout the year.

Finally, remember the logarithmic scoring system. As Wikipedia explains, "a prediction of 80% that correctly proved true would receive a score of ln(0.8) = -0.22. This same prediction also assigns 20% likelihood to the opposite case, and so if the prediction proves false, it would receive a score based on the 20%: ln(0.2) = -1.6. The goal of a forecaster is to maximize the score and for the score to be as large as possible, and -0.22 is indeed larger than -1.6."

Here are the questions (total of 68):

 * A Category 3 hurricane makes landfall in the continental U.S. * A tropical cyclone makes the list of 10 wettest on the U.S. Mainland (for the fourth year in a row). * Musk leaves Tesla for any reason (e.g. resigns or is fired). * TSLA share price goes below \$200 at any point. * TSLA share price goes above \$800 at any point. * Anow Dow 30 component files for BK or propose a restructuring where existing equity will receive less than 10%. * At least 4 of HOSS, CRC, CHK, FTR, MNK, JCP file for BK or propose a restructuring where existing equity will receive less than 10%. * Frontier Communications pays its unsecured bond maturing in April 2020. * 2020 US vehicle sales (autos and light trucks/SUVs) are lower than 2019 vehicle sales. * A players' strike occurs in any of the four major US sports leagues (NBA, NFL, MLB, NHL). * Twitter is taken private or acquired. * Boeing 737 MAX aircraft resume service in the U.S., the E.U., or Canada. * China wins more medals than the US in the 2020 Olympics * A terrorist attack using commercial drones kills someone in US or Europe. * US life expectancy declines for a fourth consecutive year (based on most recent data) * Cannabis is removed from the federal list of Schedule 1 drugs. * Donald Trump is re-elected (election not in dispute or too close to call) by the end of the year. * The Senate holds a Trump impeachment trial and two or more GOP Senators vote to convict. * US ends daylight savings time. * One or more of Kim/Merkel/Saudis loses power (dies, resigns, or is deposed). * One or more of Macron, Trudeau, or Erdogan loses power (dies, resigns, or is deposed). * A nuclear weapon is used in anger. * BREXIT is finalized and the UK officially leaves the E.U. * Any two or more Epstein associates are charged with Epstein-related offenses by any government * A referendum on leaving the EU is held (win or lose) in another EU country. * Either Rep. AOC (D-NY) or Rep. Ilhan Omar (D-MN) lose reelection. * Trump pardons anyone involved with the Mueller inquiry, Martin Shkreli, OR Rod Blagojevich. * Either Buffett or Munger dies. * Another Supreme Court seat opens. * Pelosi is no longer the Speaker of House as of 12/31/20. * Social Security benefits are unfavorably modified (e.g. by means testing or a change to the COLA computation). * Cryptocurrency combined market cap on Coinmarketcap.com exceeds \$1 trillion at any time during the year. * The Flippening: Etherium market cap is greater than Bitcoin (core/classic) at any time during the year. * Any country leaves the Euro currency. * A Euro hits \$1 US. (EURUSD parity) at any time during the year. * Crude (WTIC) trades above the 2018 high of \$76.90 at any time during the year. * Crude (WTIC) falls below the “modern” low of \$26.05 at any time during the year. * USDJPY below 100 at any point during the year. * USDJPY above 130 at any point during the year. * Federal Reserve bank balance sheet total assets (FRED:WALCL) increase to above \$4.75 trillion at any point.. * Federal Reserve raises target rate any times (in 25bps equivalents) in 2020. * Federal Reserve lowers target rate any times (in 25bps equivalents) in 2020. * The 13-week T-bill yield (\$IRX) exceeds 2% at any time during the year. * The 13-week T-bill yield (\$IRX) goes below 1% at any time during the year. * Global negative yielding debt goes under \$1 trillion at any time during the year. * The 10 year Treasury yield falls below the July 6, 2016 low of 1.336% at any time during the year. * The 10 year Treasury yield rises above the 2018 high yield of 3.24% at any time during the year. * Any of the following countries' 10-year government bonds yield more than US at end of year: Germany, Italy, Canada. * The 20+ year Treasury ETF (TLT) has a positive price return (not including dividends) for the year. * Any country's sovereign debt that is currently current goes into default at any point during the year. * Total return of 1 year T-bill outperforms all of S&P 500, Nasdaq, and bitcoin for the year. * The S&P goes below 2,750 at any time during the year. * The S&P goes above 3,750 at any time during the year. * The BBB yield closes above 5% at any time during the year. * A 2 year treasury yields more than 10 year Treasury at any time during the year. * The S&P Retail ETF (XRT) outperforms Amazon for the year. * Gold trades below \$1000/oz at any time during the year. * Gold trades above \$2000/oz at any time during the year. * Buying equal dollar basket of FB/AAPL/NFLX/GOOGL returns below 0% for the year (including dividends). * The CBOE Volatility Index (\$VIX) exceeds 40 at any time during the year. * The CBOE Volatility Index (\$VIX) exceeds its 2008 record of 89.53 at any time during the year. * The most current 13F as of 12/31/19 of the Swiss National Bank shows a balance below \$45 billion of equities. * The S&P has its largest one day percentage decline in history (bigger than 10/19/87 of 20.5%). * The S&P has a one day percentage decline greater than 5%. * The S&P has a one day percentage increase greater than 5%. * The Vanguard Balanced Index Fund (VBINX, 60/40) has a positive return for the year. * Hussman's fund (HSGFX) is up for the entire year including dividends. * BYND ends the year below its IPO day closing price of \$65.75 AND PTON ends the year below its IPO day closing price of \$25.76.

Anonymous said...

Russia invades and conquers Finland .90

bjdubbs said...

@sonimantennis

inner_scorecard said...

* A Category 3...50%
* A tropical cyclone...40%
* Musk leaves Tesla...20%
* TSLA share price...33%
* TSLA share price...33%
* Anow Dow 30...15%
* At least 4...20%
* Frontier Communications...33%
* 2020 US vehicle sales...33%
* A players' strike...20%
* Boeing 737 MAX...50%
* China wins more...50%
* A terrorist attack...20%
* US life expectancy...33%
* Cannabis is removed...20%
* Donald Trump is re-elected...55%
* The Senate holds...20%
* US ends...20%
* One or more...15%
* One or more...15%
* A nuclear weapon...0%
* BREXIT is finalized..66%
* Any two or more...15%
* A referendum on...15%
* Either Rep. AOC...15%
* Trump pardons anyone...20%
* Either Buffett...25%
* Another Supreme Court...25%
* Pelosi is no...25%
* Social Security benefits...15%
* Cryptocurrency combined market...20%
* The Flippening...15%
* Any country leaves...10%
* A Euro hits...10%
* Crude (WTIC) falls below...10%
* USDJPY below 100...33%
* USDJPY above 130...10%
* Federal Reserve...20%
* Federal Reserve raises...15%
* Federal Reserve lowers...50%
* The 13-week T-bill yield...10%
* The 13-week T-bill yield...33%
* Global negative yielding...33%
* The 10 year Treasury..33%
* The 10 year Treasury...35%
* Any of the following...33%
* The 20+ year Treasury...33%
* Any country's sovereign...20%
* Total return...25%
* The S&P goes...25%
* The S&P goes...50%
* The BBB yield...33%
* A 2 year treasury...20%
* The S&P Retail ETF...33%
* The CBOE Volatility...33%
* The CBOE Volatility Index...15%
* The most current 13F...33%
* The S&P has its largest...5%
* The S&P has...20%
* The S&P has...20%
* The Vanguard...66%
* Hussman's fund...50%
* BYND ends...51%

League of Women Voters said...

bjdubbs is a big tennis guy?

Ian Bezek said...

Here are the questions (total of 68):
* A Category 3 hurricane makes... .45
* A tropical cyclone makes the list... .5
* Musk leaves Tesla for any reason... .15
* TSLA share price goes below \$200... .2
* TSLA share price goes above \$800... .25
* A now Dow 30 component files for BK ... .04
* At least 4 of HOSS, CRC, CHK, FTR, MNK, JCP file for BK... .3
* Frontier Communications pays its unsecured... .4
* 2020 US vehicle sales (autos and light trucks/SUVs) are lower... .4
* A players' strike occurs... .1
* Twitter is taken private or acquired... .2
* Boeing 737 MAX aircraft resume service in the U.S., the E.U., or Canada... .5
* China wins more medals... .1
* A terrorist attack using commercial drones... .3
* US life expectancy declines for a fourth... .5
* Cannabis is removed from the federal list... .2
* Donald Trump is re-elected... .7
* The Senate holds a Trump impeachment... .15
* US ends daylight savings time... .03
* One or more of Kim/Merkel/Saudis loses power... .3
* One or more of Macron, Trudeau, or Erdogan... .35
* A nuclear weapon is used in anger. .00
* BREXIT is finalize... .6
* Any two or more Epstein associates... .25
* A referendum on leaving the EU... .2
* Either Rep. AOC (D-NY) or Rep. Ilhan Omar (D-MN)... .05
* Trump pardons anyone... .2
* Either Buffett or Munger dies. .39
* Another Supreme Court seat opens. .3
* Pelosi is no longer the Speaker... .2
* Social Security benefits are unfavorably... .1
* Cryptocurrency combined market cap... .1
* The Flippening: Etherium... .02
* Any country leaves the Euro. .2
* A Euro hits \$1 US. (EURUSD parity) at any time... .33
* Crude (WTIC) trades above ... .45
* Crude (WTIC) falls below... .1
* USDJPY below 100 at any point during the year. .2
* USDJPY above 130 at any point during the year. .12
* Federal Reserve bank balance sheet total assets... .4
* Federal Reserve raises target rate... .03
* Federal Reserve lowers target rate... .7
* The 13-week T-bill yield (\$IRX) exceeds... .05
* The 13-week T-bill yield (\$IRX) goes... .35
* Global negative yielding debt goes under \$1 trillion ... .05
* The 10 year Treasury yield falls below ... .25
* The 10 year Treasury yield rises above ... .2
* Any of the following countries' 10-year ... .3
* The 20+ year Treasury ETF (TLT) has a positive... .6
* Any country's sovereign debt that is currently... .4
* Total return of 1 year T-bill outperforms ... .15
* The S&P goes below 2,750 at any time... .25
* The S&P goes above 3,750 at any time... .6
* The BBB yield closes above 5%... .15
* A 2 year treasury yields... .4
* The S&P Retail ETF (XRT) outperforms... .45
* Gold trades below \$1000/oz at any time during the year. .05
* Gold trades above \$2000/oz at any time during the year. .1
* The CBOE Volatility Index (\$VIX) exceeds 40... .3
* The CBOE Volatility Index (\$VIX) exceeds its .02
* The most current 13F as of... .1
* The S&P has its largest one day... .01
* The S&P has a one day percentage... .12
* The S&P has a one day percentage... .08
* The Vanguard Balanced Index Fund... .75
* Hussman's fund (HSGFX) is up... .25
* BYND ends the year below its IPO day... .4

ianbezek at yahoo
@irbezek