Thursday, December 31, 2020

2020 Prediction Contest - Preliminary Scoring

Before we score the prediction contest, we need to figure out which of the events officially Happened and which ones did not. Here is my preliminary assessment, please tell me whether you agree.

Happened

  • Boeing 737 MAX aircraft resume service in the U.S., the E.U., or Canada.
  • 2020 US vehicle sales (autos and light trucks/SUVs) are lower than 2019 vehicle sales.
  • The 13-week T-bill yield ($IRX) goes below 1% at any time during the year.
  • The 20+ year Treasury ETF (TLT) has a positive price return (not including dividends) for the year.
  • Federal Reserve lowers target rate any times (in 25bps equivalents) in 2020.
  • The S&P goes above 3,750 at any time during the year.
  • Trump pardons anyone involved with the Mueller inquiry, Martin Shkreli, OR Rod Blagojevich.
  • The Vanguard Balanced Index Fund (VBINX, 60/40) has a positive return for the year.
  • Federal Reserve bank balance sheet total assets (FRED:WALCL) increase to above $4.75 trillion at any point.
  • At least 4 of HOSS, CRC, CHK, FTR, MNK, JCP file for BK or propose a restructuring where existing equity will receive less than 10%.
  • Hussman's fund (HSGFX) is up for the entire year including dividends.
  • The S&P has a one day percentage decline greater than 5%.
  • The CBOE Volatility Index ($VIX) exceeds 40 at any time during the year.
  • The S&P goes below 2,750 at any time during the year.
  • The 10 year Treasury yield falls below the July 6, 2016 low of 1.336% at any time during the year.
  • The S&P has a one day percentage increase greater than 5%.
  • TSLA share price goes above $800 at any point.
  • Crude (WTIC) falls below the “modern” low of $26.05 at any time during the year.
  • Another Supreme Court seat opens.

Didn't Happen 

  • TSLA share price goes below $200 at any point.
  • Frontier Communications pays its unsecured bond maturing in April 2020.
  • Twitter is taken private or acquired.
  • A 2 year treasury yields more than 10 year Treasury at any time during the year.
  • A terrorist attack using commercial drones kills someone in US or Europe.
  • The S&P Retail ETF (XRT) outperforms Amazon for the year.
  • A tropical cyclone makes the list of 10 wettest on the U.S. Mainland (for the fourth year in a row).
  • China wins more medals than the US in the 2020 Olympics
  • Buying equal dollar basket of FB/AAPL/NFLX/GOOGL returns below 0% for the year (including dividends).
  • A Category 3 hurricane makes landfall in the continental U.S.
  • Any country's sovereign debt that is currently current goes into default at any point during the year.
  • The Senate holds a Trump impeachment trial and two or more GOP Senators vote to convict.
  • US life expectancy declines for a fourth consecutive year (based on most recent data)
  • BYND ends the year below its IPO day closing price of $65.75 AND PTON ends the year below its IPO day closing price of $25.76.
  • The 13-week T-bill yield ($IRX) exceeds 2% at any time during the year.
  • BREXIT is finalized and the UK officially leaves the E.U.
  • Global negative yielding debt goes under $1 trillion at any time during the year.
  • Gold trades above $2000/oz at any time during the year.
  • Either Rep. AOC (D-NY) or Rep. Ilhan Omar (D-MN) lose reelection.
  • Cannabis is removed from the federal list of Schedule 1 drugs.
  • Any of the following countries' 10-year government bonds yield more than US at end of year: Germany, Italy, Canada.
  • Any two or more Epstein associates are charged with Epstein-related offenses by any government
  • Crude (WTIC) trades above the 2018 high of $76.90 at any time during the year.
  • Pelosi is no longer the Speaker of House as of 12/31/20.
  • One or more of Kim/Merkel/Saudis loses power (dies, resigns, or is deposed).
  • A referendum on leaving the EU is held (win or lose) in another EU country.
  • Federal Reserve raises target rate any times (in 25bps equivalents) in 2020.
  • Total return of 1 year T-bill outperforms all of S&P 500, Nasdaq, and bitcoin for the year.
  • One or more of Macron, Trudeau, or Erdogan loses power (dies, resigns, or is deposed).
  • The BBB yield closes above 5% at any time during the year.
  • The most current 13F as of 12/31/19 of the Swiss National Bank shows a balance below $45 billion of equities.
  • The 10 year Treasury yield rises above the 2018 high yield of 3.24% at any time during the year.
  • Either Buffett or Munger dies.
  • Donald Trump is re-elected (election not in dispute or too close to call) by the end of the year.
  • A Euro hits $1 US. (EURUSD parity) at any time during the year.
  • Musk leaves Tesla for any reason (e.g. resigns or is fired).
  • USDJPY below 100 at any point during the year.
  • USDJPY above 130 at any point during the year.
  • Gold trades below $1000/oz at any time during the year.
  • A players' strike occurs in any of the four major US sports leagues (NBA, NFL, MLB, NHL).
  • US ends daylight savings time.
  • Cryptocurrency combined market cap on Coinmarketcap.com exceeds $1 trillion at any time during the year.
  • Social Security benefits are unfavorably modified (e.g. by means testing or a change to the COLA computation).
  • Any country leaves the Euro currency.
  • The Flippening: Etherium market cap is greater than Bitcoin (core/classic) at any time during the year.
  • The CBOE Volatility Index ($VIX) exceeds its 2008 record of 89.53 at any time during the year.
  • Any Dow 30 component files for BK or propose a restructuring where existing equity will receive less than 10%.
  • The S&P has its largest one day percentage decline in history (bigger than 10/19/87 of 20.5%).
  • A nuclear weapon is used in anger.   

6 comments:

CP said...

Two mistakes - the brexit deal was finalized and gold did trade above $2000.

https://quotes.ino.com/charting/?s=FOREX_XAUUSDO
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-32810887

CP said...

Also, the BBB debt did briefly yield more than 5%.

Anonymous said...

Regarding Epstein associates, Ghislaine Maxwell and Jean-Luc Brunel (France) have been charged.

CP said...

Regarding Epstein associates, Ghislaine Maxwell and Jean-Luc Brunel (France) have been charged.

Is "charged" the right description of what happened? It seems he is in some kind of French preliminary process that has no equivalent here?

Anne-Claire Lejeune, a lawyer who represents Ms. Huisman as well as three other women who have also accused Mr. Brunel of sexual misconduct, said Mr. Brunel’s arrest was “a very good first step” but she cautioned that he had yet to be charged and hoped that the prosecutors would hand over the inquiry to special magistrates.

Under French law, such magistrates have broad investigative powers and can place defendants under formal investigation. Not all preliminary investigations reach that stage, though, and prosecutors can drop cases if they do not uncover firm evidence of wrongdoing.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/17/world/europe/france-jeffrey-epstein-Jean-Luc-Brunel.html

Anonymous said...

The article you linked to is from 12/17. It appears Brunel was charged two days later:

https://www.foxnews.com/world/epstein-linked-modeling-agent-charged-with-rape-of-minors
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/19/world/europe/france-epstein-brunel.html

That's consistent with Google Translate's English version of this article from Le Monde, which says Brunel was "indicted": https://www.lemonde.fr/police-justice/article/2020/12/19/affaire-epstein-jean-luc-brunel-mis-en-examen-et-place-en-detention_6063942_1653578.html

CP said...

Very well. I changed it.

That did not change the winner.

I will announce rankings soon. There were only 9 people in 2020. It was *almost* a back to back win by one person.