Saturday, March 20, 2021

Tesla's "Full Self Driving" Beta Is Just Laughably Bad and Potentially Dangerous

That's not me saying it - it's Road and Track yesterday!

A beta version of Tesla's "Full Self Driving" Autopilot update has begun rolling out to certain users. And man, if you thought "Full Self Driving" was even close to a reality, this video of the system in action will certainly relieve you of that notion. It is perhaps the best comprehensive video at illustrating just how morally dubious, technologically limited, and potentially dangerous Autopilot's "Full Self Driving" beta program is.

In a 13-minute video posted to YouTube by user "AI Addict," we see a Model 3 with FSD Beta 8.2 fumbling its way around Oakland. It appears hapless and utterly confused at all times, never passably imitating a human driver.

The world is catching on to Elon Musk.

  • He's not good at building cars.
  • He doesn't have a proprietary advantage in batteries - his are outsourced.
  • He doesn't have an autonomous vehicle program - he's not even trying to compete at the level of Google or GM.
  • He doesn't have any solar energy business.

Ford sold two million vehicles (and a million trucks) in 2020. They are down to a core of great products: the F-Series, the Explorer/Expedition (sells more than Tesla in the U.S.), and the Mach E looks very promising. Their driver assistance is on par with what Tesla calls "Full Self Driving".

Ford has a $50 billion market cap. That seems like a ceiling on what Tesla could be worth (i.e. about $50 per share) when people realize that the traditional OEMs are eating Elon's lunch. As someone put it on Twitter today,

Tesla's sole advantage was as the first mover. But unlike Amazon,Twitter, eBay, FB, etc, where network effects prevent competitors from encroaching on their marketshare, Tesla has none of that. All the auto manufactures are entering the EV market. Tesla as an investment is toast.

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