Thursday Night Links

• If defeat seems a strong word, consider what we do know about how this war will end. Iran has suffered significant damage from U.S. and Israeli military action. But as I and others warned at the outset, killing people and bombing things do not by themselves produce victory. The reality is that the war will close with the regime in Tehran intact and in the grip of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps; the Strait of Hormuz will remain under the threat of Iranian attacks; Iran will continue to possess significant drone and missile stocks; the regime will maintain the capability to be a state sponsor of terror; and many sanctions will be lifted and billions of dollars in unfrozen assets will flow to Iran. In other words, the Iranians have achieved their key strategic aims—regime survival above all—while the Americans have achieved none of their own. [The Atlantic]
• Before the war, Iran didn’t control the strait, simply because it didn’t realize it could. Drone technology had advanced to the point where Iran was able to shut down Hormuz, but Iran didn’t know that until the U.S. attack forced it to try the risky and desperate move of actually shutting down the strait. The gambit paid off spectacularly, and now Iran knows that modern drone weaponry gives it an advantage it didn’t have in previous decades. So it controls Hormuz. It’s kind of wild to step back and consider how good of a position Iran’s leaders are in now, compared to the situation before the war. Iran had lost most of its proxy armies in the Middle East — Hezbollah, Assad, most of Hamas. The regime had been rocked by massive nationwide protests, which it only managed to quell by murdering tens of thousands of innocent Iranian citizens. The country’s economy was slowly dying. Now the leaders are firmly entrenched in power, their economy will be revived, and they find themselves the masters of Hormuz for the first time. Anyway, I don’t see any sense in which this is not a classic military defeat for Donald Trump and the United States. [Noah Smith]
• Even the head of Nigeria’s population commission doesn’t believe that the 2006 census was trustworthy, and indeed said that “no census has been credible in Nigeria since 1816.” (Nigeria’s president fired him shortly thereafter.) There are plenty of reasons to think that Nigeria’s population might be overstated. It would explain, for instance, why in so many ways there appear to be tens of millions of missing Nigerians: why so few Nigerians have registered for national identification numbers, or why Nigerian voter turnout is so much lower than voter turnout in nearby African nations (typically in the 20s or low 30s, compared to the 50s or 60s for Ghana, Cameroon, or Burkina Faso), or why SIM card registration is so low, or why Nigerian fertility rates have apparently been dropping so much faster than demographers expected. [David Oks]
• It was originally named "Westinghouse Electric & Manufacturing Company" and was renamed "Westinghouse Electric Corporation" in 1945. Through the early and mid-20th century, Westinghouse Electric was a powerhouse in heavy industry, electrical production and distribution, consumer electronics, home appliances and a wide variety of other products. They were a major supplier of generators and steam turbines for most of their history, and were also a major player in the field of nuclear power, starting with the Westinghouse Atom Smasher in 1937. A series of downturns and management missteps in the 1970s and 1980s combined with large cash balances led the company to enter the financial services business. Their focus was on mortgages, which suffered significant losses in the late 1980s. In 1992 they announced a major restructuring and the liquidation of their credit operations. In 1995, in a major change of direction, the company acquired the CBS television network and renamed itself CBS Corporation. Most of its remaining industrial businesses were sold off at this time. CBS Corp was acquired by Viacom in 1999, a merger completed in April 2000. The CBS Corporation name was later reused for one of the two companies resulting from the split of Viacom in 2005. [Westinghouse Electric Corporation]