Tuesday, January 25, 2011

Tuesday Links (CRM, USG)

Anti-value


Social Mood

Competition

12 comments:

Eric said...

The rally in USG Corp (USG) shares has been simply amazing given the plunge in single family home starts.

So if you'd shorted it on that basis, you'd be way down right now, right?

As usual, sometimes you can short on valuation -- or perceived valuation -- and sometimes you can't. And right now, in this market, it is more often the latter. To state the obvious.

CP said...

So, "fundamentals don't matter," right?

Eric said...

All that matters is price movement, and how that affects you.

Prices can move -- or not move -- for many reasons, fundamentals among them, but sometimes they aren't the foremost reason. That's where 'The market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent' comes from.

CP said...

All that matters right now is price movement, because the momentum investors are having one of their brief days in the sun.

Talk to me about Cramer's "Winners of the New World" from 2000: http://www.creditbubblestocks.com/2007/04/james-j-cramer-mad-money-indeed.html

Infospace had so much price movement! So why did it go to zero? What if there was a theory that could explain it?

getyourselfconnected said...

I agree from last post about NFLX.

Fundamentals are somewhat useful, but this market is mostly air so price action is king for now.

CP said...

Fundamentals are king over the long run.

This blog is about the long run, hence, about fundamentals.

JamesDavid said...

"You can't fix stupid." New research indicates that stupid may be a symptom of too many LOL Cats. See http://xkcd.com/231/

CP said...

Aha! This is all one positive feedback loop!

More investor stupidity means more venture capital money for lol cats, and cats lead to stupidity.

Can we break the cycle before the system falls apart??

whydibuy said...

Of course USG earnings suck right now.

Thats well known and expected.

What the market is anticipating is that the price increases will start to stick and then USG will coin big bucks.
Its the conf call that'll be interesting. If the ceo says that the price increases are sticking, even a little, expect a big jump. With 19% bears in the stock, I see rocket fuel, baby!!

CP said...

Yes, I'm sure there have been tons of wallboard price increases, what with the very low capacity utilization and the record low housing starts. Maybe that's why they are having to close more plants?

Maybe this will be the one housing slowdown where the entire wallboard industry doesn't restructure?

How are your AAPL calls doing?

whydibuy said...

Hey, hows the end of the world for USG doing, LOL? OOPS! Up 1+ !!

Silly, silly bears. Come out of your bomb bunker and enjoy the sunlight of a economy on the come.

Eric said...

A general problem with being bearish, and shorting in particular, is that the whole system seems to be rigged to support rising share prices. There is active support for this.

With 19% bears in the stock,...

And this points out another problem: high short interest. You want to short stocks seen as vulnerable or overvalued. But the herd is usually onto them, which makes shorting even more risky.

Anyway, another up day for the market. And on a day when it was reported that the deficit will be as big as ever.