Sunday, July 12, 2015

Ben Graham predicted the "commodity supercycle" bubble!

This is from an essay in The Rediscovered Benjamin Graham: Selected Writings of the Wall Street Legend, which I reviewed almost four years ago:

"It is impossible for any really large sums of money-say billions of dollars-to be invested in such tangibles [gold or commodities], other than real property, without creating a huge advance in the price level, thus creating a typical speculative cycle ending in the inevitable crash."
That is exactly what happened when the "commodity supercycle" meme caused investors to pour money into hoarding of what Graham called "tangibles". See our earlier posts [1, 2] on the bogus commodity shortage.

Inflationists who bought commodities (or commodity indexes and futures) created a typical (huge!) speculative cycle ending in the inevitable crash.

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