In December, we asked the readership to give five predictions at 80% confidence level, meaning four should turn out to be right and one wrong - if the reader is well-calibrated. I thought I'd take a quick look to see if anyone is out of the race already (yes) and if there are any front runners.
"Louisiana" has one of the most interesting early successes so far. He said, "a breakout populist candidate will emerge in the Republican primary. To quantify: not currently polling above 5%, for whom immigration and jobs will be a centerpiece issue." Trump!
"Panda" has 3.5/6 which is looking pretty good, "Blue Devil's" $90 oil by midyear prediction is already dead wrong, hopefully "Admiral" didn't put real money on the National Bank of Greece preferred stock (!), "Memphis" is in the running, "Zoolander" is too, "Rothko" is middle of pack as is "Boston" and "Stagflationary Mark". "Hollywood" isn't looking great, nor are "bjdubbs," "jHurt", "Allegheny", "Gotham" or "whydibuy".
Recall your host's predictions:
- Quicksilver Resources, RadioShack, Walter Energy, and Molycorp will all restructure (dilutive out of court exchanges count). Only Walter hasn't so far.
- U.S. ten year note yield will not exceed three percent. Good so far.
- Silver goes below $15/oz. Dipped below $15 in early June.
- Spot WTI does not exceed $90/bbl. Not even close.
- U.S. thirty year yield hits 2.5%. Went below 2.5% in the first week of January.