Judging by the bond prices, many of these are likely to file in 2016:
- ZINC, the July 2017 3.8% note trading at 20 cents; ytm 155%
- GDP, the 8.875% notes traded at 8; current yield >100%.
- EXXI, the 3% notes traded at 6; current yield 50% and ytm 145%
- TC, the 7.375% notes traded at ytm of 134%
- SD, the 8.75% notes traded at 12; ytm >100%
- PVA, the 7.25% notes traded at 13; ytm>100%
- BTU, the 6% notes traded at 18.2; ytm 88%
- CLF, the 5.95% notes traded at 28; ytm 88%
- LINE, the 8.625% notes traded at 16; ytm 78%
- XCO, the 7.5% notes traded at 27; ytm 72%
- SSE, the 6.5% notes traded at 16; ytm 54%
What if FB ad revenue that is funded by VC equity contracts, and the multiple contracts, and much of that $300 billion market cap is revealed as illusory? What if the Amazon flywheel runs in the opposite direction (both AWS, as an expression of the VC bubble, and the traditional business, as an expression of consumer spending), and some of that $317 billion market cap is revealed as illusory?
What if the replacement cycle on Apple devices lengthens, or consumers get tired of paying 100% markups for memory, and some of that $587 billion market cap is revealed as illusory wealth?
Well, then, we'd have a bear market.