- Rather than a prediction, everyone submit a handful of potential events for the remainder of 2016. Make sure they are not vague so that it is clear next year whether or not the event happened. Examples: Hillary wins 2016 presidential election; WTI crude oil trades above $55; Hussman outperforms the S&P; Chipotle trades below $400. (Look at the reader poll post for more topical inspiration.)
- Credit Bubble Stocks will compile the most interesting potential events into a master list of about two dozen.
- Everyone will take the master list and give a probability estimate for each event. For example, you could say that Hillary has about a 60% chance of winning if you believe the betting markets are accurate.
- At the end of the year, the contest is scored. We add up your probability estimates for each event that happens. We subtract your probability estimates for each event that doesn't happen. The net is your score.
Start by leaving your potential events in the comments, or email them.