Sunday, January 3, 2016

Credit Bubble Stocks 2016 Reader Prediction Contest

Thanks to everyone who participated in the 2015 Reader Prediction Contest [results]. We're doing a 2016 contest, but it is different, more interesting, and better.

Here are the rules:

  1. Rather than a prediction, everyone submit a handful of potential events for the remainder of 2016. Make sure they are not vague so that it is clear next year whether or not the event happened. Examples: Hillary wins 2016 presidential election; WTI crude oil trades above $55; Hussman outperforms the S&P; Chipotle trades below $400. (Look at the reader poll post for more topical inspiration.)
  2. Credit Bubble Stocks will compile the most interesting potential events into a master list of about two dozen.
  3. Everyone will take the master list and give a probability estimate for each event. For example, you could say that Hillary has about a 60% chance of winning if you believe the betting markets are accurate.
  4. At the end of the year, the contest is scored. We add up your probability estimates for each event that happens. We subtract your probability estimates for each event that doesn't happen. The net is your score.
Prize for highest score is your pick of Credit Bubble Stocks 5/5 rated book.

Start by leaving your potential events in the comments, or email them.

26 comments:

CP said...

From Blue Devil:
"either Mitt Romney or Michael Bloomberg enter the presidential race"

Skokie said...

-Trump wins.
-WTI ends year under $50
-S & P ends year under 2000
-Euro reaches parity with the dollar.

CP said...

Bill Gross leaves Janus

Anonymous said...

The ranchers in Oregon are still holding that building at the end of the year, as promised.

Walter said...

Grexit

James said...

USDJPY goes below 110
Home Capital Group stock goes below 5
A major ($10bn or more AUM) hedge fund manager goes out of business

Phaedrus said...

Buffett names a successor
Fed doesn't raise rates
S&P is negative for the year
Pearson leaves VRX
The average score of respondents in this contest is below 0

CP said...

Meta prediction! That's great!

CP said...

Great ideas from Panda!


Politics:
(1) Impeachment proceedings against B. Hussein Soetoro-Obama
(2) At least 1 EU member does a "hard close" to any and all asylum/migrant/refugee flows and applications
(3) At least 1 ship sunk in a hostile event in the Persian Gulf

Business/finance
(1) S&P500 drops 20% below the all-time high on a total return basis at least one time in 2016
(2) Berkshire-Hathaway underperforms the S&P 500 by at least 500 bps on a total return basis for the full year
(3) Warren Buffett reveals his successor
(4) Greenlight Capital becomes a family office
(5) Aubrey McClendon is charged with securities fraud or a crime of a similar magnitude
(6) At least one of the 2 CMG co-CEOs is gone
(7) CCC/lower spreads go wider than 23% at least one time
(8) Single family housing starts will not grow by more than 10% (this would be Dec 15-Nov 16 period vs. Dec 14-Nov 15 period as this is the latest data for year-end contest purposes)

CP said...

Another contributor:


"assassination attempt on Trump" - this would be valid whether or not it works
"Terrorist attack on American soil greater casualties than San Bernardino but less than 9/11"
"Gold trades within 10% of marginal production cost"
"SPX stays below 200 day MA for most of year"

CP said...

Another:

Tom Ward to get in big trouble with the SEC

CP said...

https://www.blackstone.com/news-views/press-releases/details/byron-wien-announces-predictions-for-ten-surprises-for-2016

ACV said...

-A major (Katrina/Fukushima size) natural disaster occurs and is blamed on climate change.
-Protests and/or administrative failures (e.g. power outages) significantly disrupt the Rio Olympics.
-Despite a sweeping victory for Trump in primaries, the GOP elects to have a brokered convention and runs Rubio or another more establishment-friendly candidate.
-Hillary fails to win primaries/caucuses in 10 or more states.
-At least one major ETF blow up for liquidity reasons.
-Charges are filed against Hillary for any reason.
-TSLA trades below 150
-NFLX trades below 70
-AMZN trades below 400
-Median price of 1BR apartment in San Francisco exceeds $4000.
-Median price of existing US homes falls YoY.

James said...

https://www.blackstone.com/news-views/press-releases/details/byron-wien-announces-predictions-for-ten-surprises-for-2016

His predictions are consistently bad, so this could be your contest's version of the Mendoza line.

Taylor Conant said...

Congress passes what is hailed as "a major Civil Rights achievement"

Another tragic school shooting w/ 10+ dead creates moral outrage which helps Obama push new Federal gun control law through (as he has pledged to do in 2016)

Syrian conflict resolved with Assad still in power and return to status quo, delivering huge setback to neocon foreign policy goals

Another major (10+) casualty terror attack in Europe, puzzlingly as ISIS shrinks in official political standing and control in Syria and Iraq to almost nothing

Another Congresscritter experiences mysterious injury ala Harry Reid

Gold >= $1200

Fed eases below zero-bound; dollar manages to strength against major trading currencies (JPY, CHF, EUR) despite this

Eurozone re-enters acute financial crisis, >E$500B in new bailouts announced or pledged

Chinese financial collapse leads to minor secession movement and begins disintegration of Chinese national state

Stagflationary Mark said...

1. In 2016, although the effects of the bird flu on egg production will linger, the seasonally adjusted consumer price index for eggs will not exceed the 2015 peak of 332.397 set in August of 2015.

2. In a related prediction, Shadow Stats will remain unwilling to raise its subscription price of $175 for yet another year (keeping its long-term subscription pricing disinflationary streak alive) while continuing to claim that hyperinflation is imminent.

I'm not necessarily making these predictions. I simple offer them as "food" for thought. :)

James said...

Kim Jong Un loses power in a coup d'etat

Walter said...

-Australian housing prices fall at least 10% from peak
-Canadian housing prices fall at least 10% from peak
-Italian government bond trades above 5% yield
-The yuan devalues by at least 10% against the dollar
-S&P500 falls 7% intraday
-HYG trades under $70
-The FTC announces action against HLF and the stock closes below $30 that day
-VRX trades below $50
-AAPL trades below $70
-BABA trades below $40
-BTU files for bankruptcy
-Any stock owned by Carl Icahn today goes bankrupt
-Einhorn bounces back, beating the S&P500 by 10%+
-Ackman bounces back, beating the S&P500 by 10%+

whydibuy said...

S&P ends 2016 up 10% +
USD/CAD disparity shrinks to about 1.15
Oil ends above 54.00
Bank stocks up 12%+
U.S. auto sales above 2015 level
CP states " crash imminent" at least once during the year
There are two or more Hindenburg omelettes during the year for the chart scare bears
Growth in China resumes to 7%+
The Rogers international commodity index rises 7%+
The 10 yr Treasury rate rises to 2.80

Anonymous said...

You can call me "Hollywood" like you did last year.

2016 event predictions:

1. At least 5 VC-backed companies will IPO with 1st day valuations above $5 billion.
2. Whatever number of such $5B+ VC-backed IPOs occur in 2016, 50%+ will show positive stock performance for 2016.
3. If SpaceX or Blue Origin attempt to launch a previously used rocket in 2016 (where "previously used" means that all of the engines flew in a prior, successful commercial launch), the first three such launches by either company will fail.
4. At least one Presidential candidate will propose banning CRISPR-CAS9.
5. Dollars invested in new utility scale solar installations in the US will fall in 2016 relative to 2015, as the extension of the solar tax credit eliminates the need to get projects in under the wire by the end of 2016. Nevertheless, gigawatts installed should be up marginally from 2015 thanks to continued falling prices.
6. During 2016, Tesla will announce a further delay of at least 90 days in the ship date of the Model 3.
7. There will be no commercially available, fully autonomous self-driving car available for sale in the United States in 2016.
8. ISIS will control less territory on 12/31/16 than they did on 12/31/15.
9. American electric utilities will announce early shut downs for at least three nuclear reactors in 2016.
10. HSGFX will post negative performance for the year.

CP said...

‘What could be the beginnings of a major global recession’

Tyler Cowen, professor of economics at George Mason University

I believe China is currently in the range of 3 to 5 percent growth, and headed rapidly to zero. Some people take this to be a radical position, but is it? Is it so uncommon for countries to have recessions every now and then? It’s now China’s turn, due to debt buildup, excess capacity and problems in reforming their state-owned enterprises. Longer run, I think they can expect growth at 4 percent. At most. The big losers here are Brazil, Peru, Singapore and other parts of Asia, as well as Africa. The United States will chug along at 2 percent growth, and mostly ignore what could be the beginnings of a major global recession. We are about the most insulated from this of just about anybody.

Read more: http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2016/01/economist-forecast-2016-213499

Anonymous said...

Saudi Arabia or Iran have "involuntary" oil production cuts.

The ten yr treasury dips below 1.75 percent

Horsehead mining (ZINC) does a debt for equity swap making Pabrai-Spier the largest owners now having their own "Berkshire Hathaway". They sell the crappy plants and redeploy the cash like their hero.

American Express gets taken over Berkshire who pushes use of the card throughout the kiretsu.

The hoppy beer fad tops out then goes flat for the rest of the year

Monsanto continues to decline as consumers demand and purchase more non GMO product.



innerscorecard said...

Late to the party, but here are a few that haven't been suggested yet:

1. Li Keqiang leaves active office.
2. Gold in USD ends 2016 higher.
3. The US presidential is less close in electoral votes than the four preceding elections.

Anonymous said...

1)The Saudis devalue the Riyal
2)Ackman finishes the year down more than 10%
3) The Fed does not raise rates during the first half of 2016

Anonymous said...

1. Weight Watchers trades at or under $4/share by 12/31/16 @ midnight
2. Caterpillar shares trade at or under $30/share by 12/31/16 @ midnight
3. Charlie Sheen does not die in 2016
4. USD/REAL trades at or above 5 ($1 buys 5 Brazilian Real) by 12/31/16 @ midnight
5. Manhattan Luxury real estate market declines by >= 20% y/y
6. Sears doesn't default in 2016
7. Saudi Aramco doesn't IPO

CP said...

Just posted the final 24!

http://www.creditbubblestocks.com/2016/01/credit-bubble-stocks-2016-reader_7.html