Monday, January 11, 2016

You Won't Believe... Predictions Are In! (n=16)

Here's an interesting way to look at the responses. This is sorted by standard deviation of the 16 responses. So, the list goes from most disagreement among the group to least.

Summary Average SD
CHK, NAV, RIG, or SSE bankrupt 53% 31%
Crude trades below 30 65% 31%
Unicorn liquidates below $250MM 50% 29%
Hussman up for the year 33% 27%
Gross/Ackman/Miller/Hussman/Einhorn retire 27% 27%
Republicans retain House and Senate 60% 27%
S&P trades below 1,820.66 64% 26%
Gold trades below 1000 36% 26%
S&P trades above 2134.72 26% 26%
McClendon/Ward/Clinton/Pearson indicted 24% 25%
Cat 3 hurricane landfall 19% 25%
BBB yield above 5% 64% 24%
CMG trades below 300 28% 23%
FB/AAPL/NFLX/GOOGL below 0% 54% 21%
Trump elected 37% 21%
EURUSD parity 53% 20%
Kim/Merkel/Saudis deposed 22% 19%
USTs below 1.5% 19% 18%
Crude trades above 62.58 14% 16%
2yT yields more than 10yT 9% 11%
Gold trades above 2000 6% 7%
USTs above 3.5% 7% 5%
Nuclear 2% 3%
Autonomous vehicle 99% 2%

Note the consensus (low SD) that oil won't trade above $62.58, the yield curve won't invert, gold won't trade above $2000, and the ten year treasury won't yield more than 3.5%.

Also, besides the confidence that a nuclear weapon won't be used, the highest confidence was that crude oil will trade below $30. (Which is looking smart today.)

Inflationism is dead as a doornail!

For the record, here are my predictions:

Summary

CBS
USTs below 1.5%

15%
USTs above 3.5%

5%
2yT yields more than 10yT

10%
EURUSD parity

50%
S&P trades below 1,820.66

75%
S&P trades above 2134.72

10%
Gold trades below 1000

55%
Gold trades above 2000

5%
Crude trades below 30

75%
Crude trades above 62.58

15%
Trump elected

35%
Republicans retain House and Senate

55%
Kim/Merkel/Saudis deposed

15%
Nuclear

2%
McClendon/Ward/Clinton/Pearson indicted

20%
Gross/Ackman/Miller/Hussman/Einhorn retire

20%
Hussman up for the year

20%
CHK, NAV, RIG, or SSE bankrupt

55%
CMG trades below 300

35%
Autonomous vehicle

99%
FB/AAPL/NFLX/GOOGL below 0%

60%
BBB yield above 5%

85%
Unicorn liquidates below $250MM

65%
Cat 3 hurricane landfall

10%

I was much more likely to think that BBB yield will exceed 5, that gold will go below $1000. I was much less likely to think that the S&P will exceed its high from May last year.

Two people thought that Trump being elected had the same likelihood as a nuclear weapon being used.

Extraordinary popular delusions? Wisdom of crowds?

1 comment:

AllanF said...

(Reposting since I accidentally commented this to the wrong thread.)

I became a Trump supporter because all the people I hated, hated him.

Recently I stumbled upon Scott Adams' blog. Between his blog and the change in how Trump's being treated in the media the last 3-4 weeks, I'm now completely convinced Trump is a lock.