Here's an interesting way to look at the responses. This is sorted by standard deviation of the 16 responses. So, the list goes from most disagreement among the group to least.
|CHK, NAV, RIG, or SSE bankrupt||53%||31%|
|Crude trades below 30||65%||31%|
|Unicorn liquidates below $250MM||50%||29%|
|Hussman up for the year||33%||27%|
|Republicans retain House and Senate||60%||27%|
|S&P trades below 1,820.66||64%||26%|
|Gold trades below 1000||36%||26%|
|S&P trades above 2134.72||26%||26%|
|Cat 3 hurricane landfall||19%||25%|
|BBB yield above 5%||64%||24%|
|CMG trades below 300||28%||23%|
|FB/AAPL/NFLX/GOOGL below 0%||54%||21%|
|USTs below 1.5%||19%||18%|
|Crude trades above 62.58||14%||16%|
|2yT yields more than 10yT||9%||11%|
|Gold trades above 2000||6%||7%|
|USTs above 3.5%||7%||5%|
Note the consensus (low SD) that oil won't trade above $62.58, the yield curve won't invert, gold won't trade above $2000, and the ten year treasury won't yield more than 3.5%.
Also, besides the confidence that a nuclear weapon won't be used, the highest confidence was that crude oil will trade below $30. (Which is looking smart today.)
Inflationism is dead as a doornail!
For the record, here are my predictions:
|USTs below 1.5%||15%|
|USTs above 3.5%||5%|
|2yT yields more than 10yT||10%|
|S&P trades below 1,820.66||75%|
|S&P trades above 2134.72||10%|
|Gold trades below 1000||55%|
|Gold trades above 2000||5%|
|Crude trades below 30||75%|
|Crude trades above 62.58||15%|
|Republicans retain House and Senate||55%|
|Hussman up for the year||20%|
|CHK, NAV, RIG, or SSE bankrupt||55%|
|CMG trades below 300||35%|
|FB/AAPL/NFLX/GOOGL below 0%||60%|
|BBB yield above 5%||85%|
|Unicorn liquidates below $250MM||65%|
|Cat 3 hurricane landfall||10%|
I was much more likely to think that BBB yield will exceed 5, that gold will go below $1000. I was much less likely to think that the S&P will exceed its high from May last year.
Two people thought that Trump being elected had the same likelihood as a nuclear weapon being used.
Extraordinary popular delusions? Wisdom of crowds?