You Won't Believe... Predictions Are In! (n=16)
Here's an interesting way to look at the responses. This is sorted by standard deviation of the 16 responses. So, the list goes from most disagreement among the group to least.
| Summary | Average | SD |
| CHK, NAV, RIG, or SSE bankrupt | 53% | 31% |
| Crude trades below 30 | 65% | 31% |
| Unicorn liquidates below $250MM | 50% | 29% |
| Hussman up for the year | 33% | 27% |
| Gross/Ackman/Miller/Hussman/Einhorn retire | 27% | 27% |
| Republicans retain House and Senate | 60% | 27% |
| S&P trades below 1,820.66 | 64% | 26% |
| Gold trades below 1000 | 36% | 26% |
| S&P trades above 2134.72 | 26% | 26% |
| McClendon/Ward/Clinton/Pearson indicted | 24% | 25% |
| Cat 3 hurricane landfall | 19% | 25% |
| BBB yield above 5% | 64% | 24% |
| CMG trades below 300 | 28% | 23% |
| FB/AAPL/NFLX/GOOGL below 0% | 54% | 21% |
| Trump elected | 37% | 21% |
| EURUSD parity | 53% | 20% |
| Kim/Merkel/Saudis deposed | 22% | 19% |
| USTs below 1.5% | 19% | 18% |
| Crude trades above 62.58 | 14% | 16% |
| 2yT yields more than 10yT | 9% | 11% |
| Gold trades above 2000 | 6% | 7% |
| USTs above 3.5% | 7% | 5% |
| Nuclear | 2% | 3% |
| Autonomous vehicle | 99% | 2% |
Note the consensus (low SD) that oil won't trade above $62.58, the yield curve won't invert, gold won't trade above $2000, and the ten year treasury won't yield more than 3.5%.
Also, besides the confidence that a nuclear weapon won't be used, the highest confidence was that crude oil will trade below $30. (Which is looking smart today.)
Inflationism is dead as a doornail!
For the record, here are my predictions:
| Summary | CBS | ||
| USTs below 1.5% | 15% | ||
| USTs above 3.5% | 5% | ||
| 2yT yields more than 10yT | 10% | ||
| EURUSD parity | 50% | ||
| S&P trades below 1,820.66 | 75% | ||
| S&P trades above 2134.72 | 10% | ||
| Gold trades below 1000 | 55% | ||
| Gold trades above 2000 | 5% | ||
| Crude trades below 30 | 75% | ||
| Crude trades above 62.58 | 15% | ||
| Trump elected | 35% | ||
| Republicans retain House and Senate | 55% | ||
| Kim/Merkel/Saudis deposed | 15% | ||
| Nuclear | 2% | ||
| McClendon/Ward/Clinton/Pearson indicted | 20% | ||
| Gross/Ackman/Miller/Hussman/Einhorn retire | 20% | ||
| Hussman up for the year | 20% | ||
| CHK, NAV, RIG, or SSE bankrupt | 55% | ||
| CMG trades below 300 | 35% | ||
| Autonomous vehicle | 99% | ||
| FB/AAPL/NFLX/GOOGL below 0% | 60% | ||
| BBB yield above 5% | 85% | ||
| Unicorn liquidates below $250MM | 65% | ||
| Cat 3 hurricane landfall | 10% |
I was much more likely to think that BBB yield will exceed 5, that gold will go below $1000. I was much less likely to think that the S&P will exceed its high from May last year.
Two people thought that Trump being elected had the same likelihood as a nuclear weapon being used.
Extraordinary popular delusions? Wisdom of crowds?
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1 comment:
(Reposting since I accidentally commented this to the wrong thread.)
I became a Trump supporter because all the people I hated, hated him.
Recently I stumbled upon Scott Adams' blog. Between his blog and the change in how Trump's being treated in the media the last 3-4 weeks, I'm now completely convinced Trump is a lock.
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