Wednesday, January 4, 2017

Scoring the Credit Bubble Stocks 2016 Reader Predictions (Part II)

See previous post.

My score was 118%. The other scores were:

  • 150%    
  • 18%    
  • -80% [Hall of Shame]   
  • 235%    
  • 9%    
  • 41%    
  • 272%    
  • 31%   
  • 200%    
  • 194%    
  • 135%    
  • 66%    
  • 5%    
  • 95%    
  • 450% [Winner!]
  • -17%
The average was 113%.

Here's a table that compares and contrasts the winner and the "hall of shame" participant.

Summary Happened Winner Hall of Shame
USTs below 1.5% 1 65% 10%
S&P trades below 1,820.66 1 75% 40%
S&P trades above 2134.72 1 75% 35%
Crude trades below 30 1 100% 55%
Trump elected 1 60% 25%
Republicans retain House and Senate 1 100% 25%
McClendon/Ward/Clinton/Pearson indicted 1 50% 10%
CHK, NAV, RIG, or SSE bankrupt 1 10% 15%
Autonomous vehicle 1 100% 95%
Unicorn liquidates below $250MM 1 75% 65%
USTs above 3.5% -1 0% 5%
2yT yields more than 10yT -1 0% 5%
EURUSD parity -1 75% 70%
Gold trades below 1000 -1 75% 50%
Gold trades above 2000 -1 0% 15%
Crude trades above 62.58 -1 0% 55%
Kim/Merkel/Saudis deposed -1 0% 10%
Nuclear -1 0% 5%
Gross/Ackman/Miller/Hussman/Einhorn retire -1 10% 40%
Hussman up for the year -1 0% 40%
CMG trades below 300 -1 0% 15%
FB/AAPL/NFLX/GOOGL below 0% -1 50% 70%
BBB yield above 5% -1 50% 50%
Cat 3 hurricane landfall -1 0% 25%

The winner put very high probabilities for stuff that happened and 0% for 9 things that didn't happen. People should try that approach for 2017.

1 comment:

CP said...

Individual results:

Panda, 150%
Louisiana, 18%
Blue Devil, -80%
Fist, 235%
isc, 9%
M, 41%
B, 272%
Troj, 31%
W, 200%
"John", 194%
bjw, 135%
JB, 66%
valueproct, 5%
Donut, 95%
Merrill, 450%