Friday, January 5, 2018

2018 Prediction Contest

Here's some possible events. Please suggest more in the comments!

Happened in 2017 – Could It Happen Again?
* CMG trades below 300 at any point
* A Cat 3 hurricane makes landfall in the continental U.S.
* Donald Trump is still President of the United States at the end of the year
* Bitcoin (@$17k) outperforms gold (@$1250)

Proposed for First Time in 2017 But Didn't Happen
* Buying equal dollar basket of SHLD, JWN, M, WMT outperforms Amazon
* The RMB/USD exchange rate goes over 8 at any point
* Global negative yielding debt goes under $1 trillion
* Either Buffett or Munger dies
* Someone besides Elizabeth Holmes is running Theranos at the end of year (resigns, court appointed receiver, trustee, etc)
* Another Supreme Court seat opens
* The 10 year Treasury yield falls below the July 6, 2016 low of 1.336%
* Any country leaves the Euro currency
* Another Decacorn (peak valuation >$10 billion) is uncovered as a fraud
* Either VRX or SHLD enter bankruptcy
* Twitter is taken private
* The home mortgage interest deduction is eliminated from federal income tax

Didn't Happen in 2016 or 2017
* A Euro hits $1 US. (EURUSD parity)
* The 10 year Treasury yield rises above 3.5%
* Crude trades above $62.58
* Gold trades below $1000
* Hussman is up for the year including dividends (fund currently $7.13)
* Buying equal dollar basket of FB/AAPL/NFLX/GOOGL returns below 0% including dividends
* The BBB yield closes above 5% at any point
* A 2 year treasury yields more than 10 year treasury
* Gold trades above $2000
* One or more of Kim/Merkel/Saudis loses power (dies, resigns, or is deposed)
* One or more of Gross/Ackman/Miller/Hussman/Einhorn leaves the business (dies, fired, resigns, manages personal money only)
* A nuclear weapon is used in anger

New Ones
* Cryptocurrency combined market cap on Coinmarketcap.com exceeds $1T
*TSLA share price goes below 200 at any point
*The 90-day T-bill yield exceeds 2%
*One or more of Donald Trump Jr or Jared Kushner is indicted by special counsel
*More than 10,000 of the DACA people are deported
*The S&P goes below 2,500
*Republicans lose the Senate majority
*Republicans lose the House majority
*Any of the following countries' 10-year government bonds yield more than US: Germany, Italy, Canada.

5 comments:

Anonymous said...

60/40 (ie VBINX) has negative total return for the year

Risk parity strategy suffers a 20% drawdown (ie AQRIX PDREX)

A major ($5 bn+) financial fraud is uncovered (Madoff type ie allegedly Bridgewater; fraud is financial of nature, not a corporate/Enron thing)

US federal budget deficit for FYE Sept 2018 is larger than prior fiscal yr despite “boom”

Cohn, Tillerson, Mnuchin or Mattis out

The Wall construction starts

Any US govt unit charges a FAANG member with civil or criminal charges (SEC DOJ FTC FCC FEC etc.)

A corporate AMT tax aka “the Amazon tax” is approved in the US at the federal level

Hillary or Huma are charged with criminal offense/s

Amazon makes another major retail acquisition (300+ existing units) (for comp, Whole Foods is at 473 total US and UK per website)

Earthquake of XX mag strikes the cont US (figure a good gloom-and-doom addition to the hurricane)

George W Bush changes official party reg to Dem

Strike/major labor dispute in any major US sports league (nba nfl nhl mlb mls nascar ufc)

Final published CPI number in calendar 2018 (nov?) is over 3.5%

Add Iran to the “deposed” group

At least ten countries announce intent to move their Israel embassy to Jerusalem

Fed balance sheet over/under X as of latest data on 12/31/18 (currently $4.45 tn)

Worst 2017 S&P 500 sector (XLE energy) is the best total return sector in calendar 2018

VIX over 30? at any time during the year

3-mo USD Libor over 2.5% at any time (1.69% currently)

2018 US vehicle sales are under 2017 vehicle sales (17.2 mm in '17, first decline since GFC)

Trudeau or cabinet member resigns bc of/charged w corruption

Theresa May is not the UK PM as of 12/31/2018

Prominent “resistance” media personality is hospitalized w psych problems

India takes major diplomatic step over H-1B visas (recalls ambassador, puts more onerous visa reqs for US citizens, etc)

Federal voter ID law is passed

Federal marijuana legalization of any kind passed

At least one Dem formally starts an exploratory committee for the 2020 presidential election

US exits or modifies NAFTA in a major way

FDIC reduces deposit insurance limit

Credible Trump assassination attempt by US-born individual/s

Putin re-elected in the March election

US ends daylight savings time (cute Arizona topic)

Federal ban/major curtailment on use of race in college admissions (since it will likely be challenged and stopped, just the order would count)

At least one US federal government agency issues a formal warning on vegetable oils

B said...

For 2018 events, some ideas are:
- bitcoin is no longer the cryptocurrency with the largest market cap
- cryptocurrency-based company raises money / IPOs at a 10B+ post-money valuation
- IPO of decacorn company occurs
- Core CPI exceeds 2.5%
- US company issues debt at negative spread (in USD)
- Fed raises rates 4 times in 2018
- Fed lowers rates at some point in 2018
- spread between 90-day treasury and 10-year treasury falls below 50 bps at some point
- JPYUSD below 100
- US Dollar Index falls below 80
- N Korea enters agreement with either US or S Korea to demilitarize / limit arms development
- AAPL falls below 150
- 6.0+ earthquake hits Bay Area or LA area
- XIV positive for the year
- 4 or more of the top 10 most viewed youtube music videos are songs sung in Spanish

innerscorecard said...

- Elon Musk tweets (tweet replies not counted) about cryptocurrency;
- Berkshire Hathaway purchases a cryptocurrency-related company;
- Vanguard makes a cryptocurrency product available;
- Dennis Gartman purchases a cryptocurrency;
- The 10-year/2-year US Treasury spread ends the year higher than it began;
- S&P 500 has a positive total return for the year;
- Nikkei has a positive total return for the year;
- Euro Stoxx 50 has a positive total return for the year;
- US 30-year treasuries have a positive total return for the year;
- XIV has a positive total return for the year;
- WTI crude oil price ends the year higher than it began;
- Case–Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index ends the year higher than it began;
- Democrats retake the U.S. House after the November midterm elections;
- Democrats retake the U.S. Senate after the November midterm elections;
- President Trump has a higher Gallup polling average at the end of the year than the beginning.

CP said...

PRESIDENT TRUMP STILL PRESIDENT AT END OF YEAR
PUTIN, (WHOEVER RUNS IRAN), OR XI NOT IN CHARGE AT END OF YEAR
XXXX NUMBER OF TESLA MODEL 3 DELIVERED IN 2018 (NOT SURE THE BEST OVER UNDER.... 35K?)
SOMETHING ABOUT AI OR QUANTUM COMPUTING OVERCOMING A BIG HURDLE
TWITTER STILL PUBLIC
WE FIND OUT WHO SATOSHI NAKAMOTO IS
EAGLES WIN THE SUPER BOWL
EITHER OPRAH OR THE STARBUCKS GUY ANNOUNCE THEY ARE ACTUALLY RUNNING FOR OFFICE (TOO SOON?)
PAUL RYAN DEFEATED?
SOMETHING ABOUT MUELLER INVESTIGATION
SOMETHING ABOUT SHLD, LIKE "DOESN'T GO BK"
SOMETHING ABOUT PABRAI OR TILSON (TILSON OPENS A NEW FUND???)
SOMETHING ABOUT NORTH KOREA
SOMETHING ABOUT A RECESSION BEING CAUSED IN ANY ASIAN COUNTRY DUE TO CRYPTO

Anonymous said...

More shitcoins with over $1b market caps than today?

Another year with no commercial jet fatal plane crashes?