Wednesday, January 2, 2019

Credit Bubble Stocks 2018 Prediction Contest Results

The 2018 prediction contest is now over and results are in, since it does not look like there were any objections to the pre-scoring. The two biggest upsets of the contest were the Philadelphia Eagles wining the NFL Super Bowl and a tropical cyclone making the list of 10 wettest on the U.S. Mainland, both of which our participants gave an average 18% chance of happening yet both of which happened.

The most contentious (highest standard deviation of probability estimate) events had been: cryptocurrency combined market cap on exceeds $1T (didn't happen), another year with no commercial jet fatal plane incidents (didn't happen), a Cat 3 hurricane makes landfall in the continental U.S. (happened), bitcoin (@$15k) outperforms gold (@$1312) (didn't happen), and someone besides Elizabeth Holmes is running Theranos at the end of year (happened).

Our winner is Louisiana, who left his probabilities in this comment. Second place goes to Barbarian Capital. Third place was inner_scorecard. [In last place, sadly, was bjdubbs.] We had a total of 16 competitors in this contest.

One of the things that set Louisiana apart was not falling for the aviation safety meme. He gave "another year with no commercial jet fatal plane incidents" only a 10% chance, vs 80% for the other two leaders, and 97% by bjdubbs. Also, he did OK with a 40% chance of "Federal Reserve raises target rate four times (in 25bps equivalents) in 2018" vs bjdubb's 5% chance.

BarbCap got hurt by giving 50% chances for Twitter taken private and for Hillary or Huma being indicted; neither of which happened. Tom gave those 10% and 15% respectively. (Inner scorecard was 1% and 5%.) Bjdubbs gave those low probabilities. But bjdubbs' knockout blow came when SHLD declared bankruptcy; he'd given that only an 8% chance.

Inner_scorecard said only a 10% chance of Elizabeth Holmes at Theranos getting kicked out. This was among the most pessimistic of all contestants and hit his score hard. And he was also a pessimist on the T-bill yield exceeding 2%, which happened.

Another amazing side note is that our guy in the contest from Philly, who gave the Eagles a 51% chance of winning the Super Bowl (vs 15% average of participants), came in the back of the pack (13th out of 16). He was hurt most by the T-bill yield exceeding 2%, which he had given only a 10% chance of happening.

Previously, the 2015, 2016, and 2017 prediction contest results. Stay tuned for the 2019 contest announcement!


League of Women Voters said...

1. Ivanka says to DJT “Dad, you have to open the government back up. People are telling me they think you’re a meany”
2. Trump caves, opens government back up with no funding for the wall.
3. Unlike prior GOP cave-ins where the Democrats praise the “statesman-like” action by the president, this time the Democrats and the media (but I repeat myself) will spike the football. They’ll barely be able to contain their glee at having dealt Trump an epic defeat, a tremendous loss of face. Screw what’s good for the country, what’s important is we showed the Bad Orange Man who’s boss!
4. Having betrayed his base, Trump’s poll numbers collapse into the low 20s or high teens. With his supporters bitter and demoralized and his opponents bloodthirsty, re-election is an impossibility.
5. Even with a crippled president that will be out of office in less than 2 years, Pelosi will be unable to contain the foaming-at-the-mouth faction of her caucus, and will be powerless to prevent impeachment.
6. The senate trial will be a circus. George Soros, sensing an opportunity, will have paid rent-a-mobs rioting outside the capitol, and will have activists inside attempting to interrupt the proceedings. Senators will be threatened with violence if they do not vote to convict.
7. Just enough GOP senators fear for their political survival that they vote with the Democrats to remove Trump from office.
8. With Trump out of the way, any serious talk of border security is gone with him. Congress refuses to authorize any additional funding for border security, and the problems at the border intensify to the point of no longer being controllable.
9. Camp of the Saints.

CP said...

CP said...

"Even with a crippled president that will be out of office in less than 2 years, Pelosi will be unable to contain the foaming-at-the-mouth faction of her caucus, and will be powerless to prevent impeachment."