Wednesday, January 1, 2020

Biggest Upsets in the 2019 Credit Bubble Stocks Prediction Contest

I invite everyone - especially the 2019 contest participants - to see whether they agree with the happen/didn't happen scoring of all these predictions. (In particular, we are saying that "twerking" in Congress did not happen even though AOC did post some silly videos.)

Most of the possible events ("predictions") did not happen; only 13 did. Of those, seven were "upsets" that were not expected (by the consensus - the average) to happen. The biggest upset by far was the S&P 500 going above 3,000.

Also - please post suggestions for 2020 contest predictions in the comments. We will work on getting that set up over the next week or so.

Prediction Happen? Average UPSET?
* Donald Trump is still President of the United States at the end of the year. 1 86%
* 2019 US vehicle sales (autos and light trucks/SUVs) are lower than 2018 vehicle sales. 1 63%
* A 2 year treasury yields more than 10 year Treasury at any time during the year. 1 60%
* Federal Reserve bank balance sheet total assets (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WALCL) declines to below $4 trillion. 1 59%
* TSLA share price goes below $200 at any point. 1 56%
* Any of the Democratic presidential debates in 2019 has 12 or more candidates appearing (including undercard). 1 53%
* The Vanguard Balanced Index Fund (VBINX, 60/40) has a positive return for the year. 1 48% UPSET
* The 20+ year Treasury ETF (TLT) has a positive price return (not including dividends) for the year. 1 42% UPSET
* A tropical cyclone makes the list of 10 wettest on the U.S. Mainland (for the third year in a row). 1 34% UPSET
* One or more of Gross/Ackman/Miller/Hussman/Einhorn/Berkowitz leaves asset management in any manner. 1 31% UPSET
* The 13-week T-bill yield ($IRX) ends the year below 2%. 1 25% UPSET
* Federal Reserve lowers target rate any times (in 25bps equivalents) in 2019. 1 22% UPSET
* The S&P goes above 3,000 at any time during the year. 1 21% UPSET
* The CBOE Volatility Index ($VIX) exceeds 40 at any time during the year. 0 61% UPSET
* A Category 3 hurricane makes landfall in the continental U.S (for the third year in a row). 0 54% UPSET
* A primary challenger to Donald Trump emerges and polls higher than 10%. 0 53% UPSET
* The 13-week T-bill yield ($IRX) exceeds 2.5% at any time during the year. 0 52% UPSET
* Federal Reserve raises target rate two times (in 25bps equivalents) in 2019. 0 52% UPSET
* The BBB yield closes above 5% at any time during the year. 0 52% UPSET
* Buying equal dollar basket of FB/AAPL/NFLX/GOOGL returns below 0% for the year (including dividends). 0 46%
* Any of GE, JCP, or FTR file for bankruptcy protection or propose a restructuring where existing equity will receive less than 10%. 0 46%
* The S&P Retail ETF (XRT) outperforms Amazon for the year. 0 43%
* Hussman's fund (HSGFX) is up for the entire year including dividends. 0 42%
* A year with no commercial jet aircraft fatal plane incidents. 0 41%
* Tesla gets a going concern warning, has its auditor resign, or Musk is arrested, indicted, leaves the company, or is fired. 0 38%
* The S&P goes below 2,000 at any time during the year. 0 37%
* Total return of 1 year T-bill outperforms S&P 500, Nasdaq, and bitcoin for the year. 0 37%
* The 10 year Treasury yield rises above the 2018 high yield of 3.24% at any time during the year. 0 34%
* Any of the following countries' 10-year government bonds yield more than US at end of year: Germany, Italy, Canada. 0 30%
* Donald Trump pardons anyone prosecuted by the Special Counsel. 0 30%
* USDJPY below 100 at any point during the year. 0 30%
* Another Supreme Court seat opens. 0 30%
* One or more of Macron, Trudeau, or Erdogan loses power (dies, resigns, or is deposed). 0 29%
* Either Buffett or Munger dies. 0 28%
* One or more of Kim/Merkel/Saudis loses power (dies, resigns, or is deposed). 0 27%
* The USD/RMB exchange rate goes over 8 at any time during the year. 0 27%
* Crude (WTIC) trades above the 2018 high of $76.90 at any time during the year. 0 27%
* Any member of Congress posts a video “twerking” (or similar) at the Capitol or in a Congressional building. 0 25%
* The most current 13F as of 12/31/19 of the Swiss National Bank shows a balance below $45 billion of equities. 0 25%
* A Euro hits $1 US. (EURUSD parity) at any time during the year. 0 24%
* A Decacorn (nonpublic company, peak valuation >$10 billion) is uncovered as a fraud. 0 20%
* None of Uber, Lyft, Slack, Pinterest, Robin Hood, or Palantir complete an IPO or direct list their shares. 0 20%
* Global negative yielding debt goes under $1 trillion at any time during the year. 0 19%
* The S&P has a one day percentage decline greater than 7.5%. 0 19%
* Jerome Powell is no longer Fed Chairman on 12/31/19. 0 17%
* Trump announces that he won't run again in 2020. 0 17%
* Gold trades below $1000/oz at any time during the year. 0 16%
* The S&P has a one day percentage increase greater than 7.5%. 0 16%
* The CBOE Volatility Index ($VIX) exceeds its 2008 record of 89.53 at any time during the year. 0 14%
* USDJPY above 130 at any point during the year. 0 14%
* Gold trades above $2000/oz at any time during the year. 0 13%
* Any country leaves the Euro currency. 0 13%
* Pelosi is no longer the Speaker of House as of 12/31/19. 0 12%
* An earthquake of magnitude 7.5 or greater affects the continental United States. 0 12%
* The Flippening: Etherium market cap is greater than Bitcoin (core/classic) at any time during the year. 0 12%
* The 10 year Treasury yield falls below the July 6, 2016 low of 1.336% at any time during the year. 0 10%
* Twitter is taken private. 0 10%
* Federal Reserve bank balance sheet total assets (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WALCL) increase to above $5 trillion. 0 9%
* A players' strike occurs in any of the four major US sports leagues (NBA, NFL, MLB, NHL). 0 9%
* Crude (WTIC) falls below the “modern” low of $26.05 at any time during the year. 0 7%
* Any sort of #MeToo allegation is made against Warren Buffett in a mainstream newspaper. 0 6%
* Western Canadian Select trades at a premium to WTI at any time during the year. 0 6%
* Cryptocurrency combined market cap on Coinmarketcap.com exceeds $1 trillion at any time during the year. 0 5%
* The S&P has its largest one day percentage decline in history (bigger than 10/19/87 of 20.5%). 0 4%
* US ends daylight savings time. 0 3%
* Musk's “Boring Company” is revealed to be digging tunnels to smuggle drugs into the United States. 0 1%
* A nuclear weapon is used in anger. 0 1%

No comments: