2020 Prediction Contest - Predictions Are In!
Here are the predictions sorted from highest standard deviation to lowest - most contentious to least.
Prediction | SD |
* TSLA share price goes below $200 at any point. | 27% |
* Frontier Communications pays its unsecured bond maturing in April 2020. | 24% |
* Boeing 737 MAX aircraft resume service in the U.S., the E.U., or Canada. | 23% |
* 2020 US vehicle sales (autos and light trucks/SUVs) are lower than 2019 vehicle sales. | 23% |
* Twitter is taken private or acquired. | 22% |
* The 13-week T-bill yield ($IRX) goes below 1% at any time during the year. | 21% |
* The 20+ year Treasury ETF (TLT) has a positive price return (not including dividends) for the year. | 21% |
* A 2 year treasury yields more than 10 year Treasury at any time during the year. | 20% |
* Federal Reserve lowers target rate any times (in 25bps equivalents) in 2020. | 20% |
* A terrorist attack using commercial drones kills someone in US or Europe. | 20% |
* The S&P goes above 3,750 at any time during the year. | 20% |
* Trump pardons anyone involved with the Mueller inquiry, Martin Shkreli, OR Rod Blagojevich. | 19% |
* The Vanguard Balanced Index Fund (VBINX, 60/40) has a positive return for the year. | 19% |
* Federal Reserve bank balance sheet total assets (FRED:WALCL) increase to above $4.75 trillion at any point.. | 18% |
* The S&P Retail ETF (XRT) outperforms Amazon for the year. | 18% |
* At least 4 of HOSS, CRC, CHK, FTR, MNK, JCP file for BK or propose a restructuring where existing equity will receive less than 10%. | 18% |
* A tropical cyclone makes the list of 10 wettest on the U.S. Mainland (for the fourth year in a row). | 18% |
* China wins more medals than the US in the 2020 Olympics | 18% |
* Buying equal dollar basket of FB/AAPL/NFLX/GOOGL returns below 0% for the year (including dividends). | 17% |
* Hussman's fund (HSGFX) is up for the entire year including dividends. | 17% |
* A Category 3 hurricane makes landfall in the continental U.S. | 17% |
* Any country's sovereign debt that is currently current goes into default at any point during the year. | 17% |
* The Senate holds a Trump impeachment trial and two or more GOP Senators vote to convict. | 16% |
* US life expectancy declines for a fourth consecutive year (based on most recent data) | 16% |
* BYND ends the year below its IPO day closing price of $65.75 AND PTON ends the year below its IPO day closing price of $25.76. | 16% |
* The 13-week T-bill yield ($IRX) exceeds 2% at any time during the year. | 16% |
* BREXIT is finalized and the UK officially leaves the E.U. | 16% |
* Global negative yielding debt goes under $1 trillion at any time during the year. | 16% |
* Gold trades above $2000/oz at any time during the year. | 15% |
* Either Rep. AOC (D-NY) or Rep. Ilhan Omar (D-MN) lose reelection. | 15% |
* Cannabis is removed from the federal list of Schedule 1 drugs. | 15% |
* Any of the following countries' 10-year government bonds yield more than US at end of year: Germany, Italy, Canada. | 14% |
* Any two or more Epstein associates are charged with Epstein-related offenses by any government | 14% |
* The S&P has a one day percentage decline greater than 5%. | 14% |
* Crude (WTIC) trades above the 2018 high of $76.90 at any time during the year. | 14% |
* Pelosi is no longer the Speaker of House as of 12/31/20. | 13% |
* One or more of Kim/Merkel/Saudis loses power (dies, resigns, or is deposed). | 13% |
* A referendum on leaving the EU is held (win or lose) in another EU country. | 13% |
* Federal Reserve raises target rate any times (in 25bps equivalents) in 2020. | 13% |
* Total return of 1 year T-bill outperforms all of S&P 500, Nasdaq, and bitcoin for the year. | 13% |
* One or more of Macron, Trudeau, or Erdogan loses power (dies, resigns, or is deposed). | 12% |
* The BBB yield closes above 5% at any time during the year. | 12% |
* The most current 13F as of 12/31/19 of the Swiss National Bank shows a balance below $45 billion of equities. | 12% |
* The CBOE Volatility Index ($VIX) exceeds 40 at any time during the year. | 11% |
* The 10 year Treasury yield rises above the 2018 high yield of 3.24% at any time during the year. | 11% |
* The S&P goes below 2,750 at any time during the year. | 10% |
* The 10 year Treasury yield falls below the July 6, 2016 low of 1.336% at any time during the year. | 10% |
* The S&P has a one day percentage increase greater than 5%. | 10% |
* TSLA share price goes above $800 at any point. | 10% |
* Either Buffett or Munger dies. | 10% |
* Donald Trump is re-elected (election not in dispute or too close to call) by the end of the year. | 9% |
* A Euro hits $1 US. (EURUSD parity) at any time during the year. | 9% |
* Musk leaves Tesla for any reason (e.g. resigns or is fired). | 9% |
* USDJPY below 100 at any point during the year. | 8% |
* USDJPY above 130 at any point during the year. | 7% |
* Gold trades below $1000/oz at any time during the year. | 7% |
* Crude (WTIC) falls below the “modern” low of $26.05 at any time during the year. | 7% |
* A players' strike occurs in any of the four major US sports leagues (NBA, NFL, MLB, NHL). | 7% |
* US ends daylight savings time. | 6% |
* Cryptocurrency combined market cap on Coinmarketcap.com exceeds $1 trillion at any time during the year. | 6% |
* Social Security benefits are unfavorably modified (e.g. by means testing or a change to the COLA computation). | 6% |
* Any country leaves the Euro currency. | 6% |
* Another Supreme Court seat opens. | 5% |
* The Flippening: Etherium market cap is greater than Bitcoin (core/classic) at any time during the year. | 5% |
* The CBOE Volatility Index ($VIX) exceeds its 2008 record of 89.53 at any time during the year. | 5% |
* Anow Dow 30 component files for BK or propose a restructuring where existing equity will receive less than 10%. | 5% |
* The S&P has its largest one day percentage decline in history (bigger than 10/19/87 of 20.5%). | 4% |
* A nuclear weapon is used in anger. | 2% |
Another way to look at them is from most likely to least likely:
Prediction | Average |
* Donald Trump is re-elected (election not in dispute or too close to call) by the end of the year. | 64% |
* BREXIT is finalized and the UK officially leaves the E.U. | 56% |
* 2020 US vehicle sales (autos and light trucks/SUVs) are lower than 2019 vehicle sales. | 55% |
* US life expectancy declines for a fourth consecutive year (based on most recent data) | 55% |
* BYND ends the year below its IPO day closing price of $65.75 AND PTON ends the year below its IPO day closing price of $25.76. | 55% |
* The Vanguard Balanced Index Fund (VBINX, 60/40) has a positive return for the year. | 54% |
* Federal Reserve lowers target rate any times (in 25bps equivalents) in 2020. | 54% |
* A Category 3 hurricane makes landfall in the continental U.S. | 51% |
* The 20+ year Treasury ETF (TLT) has a positive price return (not including dividends) for the year. | 47% |
* The S&P Retail ETF (XRT) outperforms Amazon for the year. | 47% |
* Federal Reserve bank balance sheet total assets (FRED:WALCL) increase to above $4.75 trillion at any point.. | 46% |
* Buying equal dollar basket of FB/AAPL/NFLX/GOOGL returns below 0% for the year (including dividends). | 45% |
* Crude (WTIC) trades above the 2018 high of $76.90 at any time during the year. | 43% |
* Boeing 737 MAX aircraft resume service in the U.S., the E.U., or Canada. | 41% |
* Frontier Communications pays its unsecured bond maturing in April 2020. | 40% |
* A tropical cyclone makes the list of 10 wettest on the U.S. Mainland (for the fourth year in a row). | 39% |
* Hussman's fund (HSGFX) is up for the entire year including dividends. | 39% |
* TSLA share price goes below $200 at any point. | 39% |
* The S&P goes above 3,750 at any time during the year. | 37% |
* The S&P goes below 2,750 at any time during the year. | 37% |
* A 2 year treasury yields more than 10 year Treasury at any time during the year. | 36% |
* Either Buffett or Munger dies. | 36% |
* The CBOE Volatility Index ($VIX) exceeds 40 at any time during the year. | 35% |
* The 13-week T-bill yield ($IRX) goes below 1% at any time during the year. | 34% |
* Trump pardons anyone involved with the Mueller inquiry, Martin Shkreli, OR Rod Blagojevich. | 34% |
* Pelosi is no longer the Speaker of House as of 12/31/20. | 33% |
* Total return of 1 year T-bill outperforms all of S&P 500, Nasdaq, and bitcoin for the year. | 33% |
* Any country's sovereign debt that is currently current goes into default at any point during the year. | 31% |
* Any of the following countries' 10-year government bonds yield more than US at end of year: Germany, Italy, Canada. | 31% |
* Either Rep. AOC (D-NY) or Rep. Ilhan Omar (D-MN) lose reelection. | 28% |
* Gold trades above $2000/oz at any time during the year. | 28% |
* Another Supreme Court seat opens. | 28% |
* At least 4 of HOSS, CRC, CHK, FTR, MNK, JCP file for BK or propose a restructuring where existing equity will receive less than 10%. | 26% |
* USDJPY below 100 at any point during the year. | 26% |
* China wins more medals than the US in the 2020 Olympics | 24% |
* Any two or more Epstein associates are charged with Epstein-related offenses by any government | 24% |
* One or more of Kim/Merkel/Saudis loses power (dies, resigns, or is deposed). | 24% |
* Cannabis is removed from the federal list of Schedule 1 drugs. | 23% |
* The S&P has a one day percentage decline greater than 5%. | 23% |
* Federal Reserve raises target rate any times (in 25bps equivalents) in 2020. | 23% |
* The Senate holds a Trump impeachment trial and two or more GOP Senators vote to convict. | 23% |
* One or more of Macron, Trudeau, or Erdogan loses power (dies, resigns, or is deposed). | 22% |
* The 10 year Treasury yield falls below the July 6, 2016 low of 1.336% at any time during the year. | 22% |
* The 13-week T-bill yield ($IRX) exceeds 2% at any time during the year. | 21% |
* The BBB yield closes above 5% at any time during the year. | 21% |
* Twitter is taken private or acquired. | 20% |
* The 10 year Treasury yield rises above the 2018 high yield of 3.24% at any time during the year. | 20% |
* A Euro hits $1 US. (EURUSD parity) at any time during the year. | 19% |
* Global negative yielding debt goes under $1 trillion at any time during the year. | 19% |
* TSLA share price goes above $800 at any point. | 19% |
* A referendum on leaving the EU is held (win or lose) in another EU country. | 18% |
* Musk leaves Tesla for any reason (e.g. resigns or is fired). | 16% |
* A terrorist attack using commercial drones kills someone in US or Europe. | 13% |
* USDJPY above 130 at any point during the year. | 13% |
* The most current 13F as of 12/31/19 of the Swiss National Bank shows a balance below $45 billion of equities. | 12% |
* The S&P has a one day percentage increase greater than 5%. | 12% |
* A players' strike occurs in any of the four major US sports leagues (NBA, NFL, MLB, NHL). | 10% |
* Crude (WTIC) falls below the “modern” low of $26.05 at any time during the year. | 10% |
* Gold trades below $1000/oz at any time during the year. | 10% |
* Social Security benefits are unfavorably modified (e.g. by means testing or a change to the COLA computation). | 9% |
* Any country leaves the Euro currency. | 8% |
* Cryptocurrency combined market cap on Coinmarketcap.com exceeds $1 trillion at any time during the year. | 8% |
* The Flippening: Etherium market cap is greater than Bitcoin (core/classic) at any time during the year. | 6% |
* The CBOE Volatility Index ($VIX) exceeds its 2008 record of 89.53 at any time during the year. | 6% |
* Anow Dow 30 component files for BK or propose a restructuring where existing equity will receive less than 10%. | 6% |
* US ends daylight savings time. | 6% |
* The S&P has its largest one day percentage decline in history (bigger than 10/19/87 of 20.5%). | 3% |
* A nuclear weapon is used in anger. | 1% |
2 comments:
Prediction: Russia invades Finland.100%
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/02/05/us/politics/impeachment-vote-results.html?
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