Wednesday, January 15, 2020

2020 Prediction Contest - Predictions Are In!

Here are the predictions sorted from highest standard deviation to lowest - most contentious to least.

Prediction SD
* TSLA share price goes below $200 at any point. 27%
* Frontier Communications pays its unsecured bond maturing in April 2020. 24%
* Boeing 737 MAX aircraft resume service in the U.S., the E.U., or Canada. 23%
* 2020 US vehicle sales (autos and light trucks/SUVs) are lower than 2019 vehicle sales. 23%
* Twitter is taken private or acquired. 22%
* The 13-week T-bill yield ($IRX) goes below 1% at any time during the year. 21%
* The 20+ year Treasury ETF (TLT) has a positive price return (not including dividends) for the year. 21%
* A 2 year treasury yields more than 10 year Treasury at any time during the year. 20%
* Federal Reserve lowers target rate any times (in 25bps equivalents) in 2020. 20%
* A terrorist attack using commercial drones kills someone in US or Europe. 20%
* The S&P goes above 3,750 at any time during the year. 20%
* Trump pardons anyone involved with the Mueller inquiry, Martin Shkreli, OR Rod Blagojevich. 19%
* The Vanguard Balanced Index Fund (VBINX, 60/40) has a positive return for the year. 19%
* Federal Reserve bank balance sheet total assets (FRED:WALCL) increase to above $4.75 trillion at any point.. 18%
* The S&P Retail ETF (XRT) outperforms Amazon for the year. 18%
* At least 4 of HOSS, CRC, CHK, FTR, MNK, JCP file for BK or propose a restructuring where existing equity will receive less than 10%. 18%
* A tropical cyclone makes the list of 10 wettest on the U.S. Mainland (for the fourth year in a row). 18%
* China wins more medals than the US in the 2020 Olympics 18%
* Buying equal dollar basket of FB/AAPL/NFLX/GOOGL returns below 0% for the year (including dividends). 17%
* Hussman's fund (HSGFX) is up for the entire year including dividends. 17%
* A Category 3 hurricane makes landfall in the continental U.S. 17%
* Any country's sovereign debt that is currently current goes into default at any point during the year. 17%
* The Senate holds a Trump impeachment trial and two or more GOP Senators vote to convict. 16%
* US life expectancy declines for a fourth consecutive year (based on most recent data) 16%
* BYND ends the year below its IPO day closing price of $65.75 AND PTON ends the year below its IPO day closing price of $25.76. 16%
* The 13-week T-bill yield ($IRX) exceeds 2% at any time during the year. 16%
* BREXIT is finalized and the UK officially leaves the E.U. 16%
* Global negative yielding debt goes under $1 trillion at any time during the year. 16%
* Gold trades above $2000/oz at any time during the year. 15%
* Either Rep. AOC (D-NY) or Rep. Ilhan Omar (D-MN) lose reelection. 15%
* Cannabis is removed from the federal list of Schedule 1 drugs. 15%
* Any of the following countries' 10-year government bonds yield more than US at end of year: Germany, Italy, Canada. 14%
* Any two or more Epstein associates are charged with Epstein-related offenses by any government 14%
* The S&P has a one day percentage decline greater than 5%. 14%
* Crude (WTIC) trades above the 2018 high of $76.90 at any time during the year. 14%
* Pelosi is no longer the Speaker of House as of 12/31/20. 13%
* One or more of Kim/Merkel/Saudis loses power (dies, resigns, or is deposed). 13%
* A referendum on leaving the EU is held (win or lose) in another EU country. 13%
* Federal Reserve raises target rate any times (in 25bps equivalents) in 2020. 13%
* Total return of 1 year T-bill outperforms all of S&P 500, Nasdaq, and bitcoin for the year. 13%
* One or more of Macron, Trudeau, or Erdogan loses power (dies, resigns, or is deposed). 12%
* The BBB yield closes above 5% at any time during the year. 12%
* The most current 13F as of 12/31/19 of the Swiss National Bank shows a balance below $45 billion of equities. 12%
* The CBOE Volatility Index ($VIX) exceeds 40 at any time during the year. 11%
* The 10 year Treasury yield rises above the 2018 high yield of 3.24% at any time during the year. 11%
* The S&P goes below 2,750 at any time during the year. 10%
* The 10 year Treasury yield falls below the July 6, 2016 low of 1.336% at any time during the year. 10%
* The S&P has a one day percentage increase greater than 5%. 10%
* TSLA share price goes above $800 at any point. 10%
* Either Buffett or Munger dies. 10%
* Donald Trump is re-elected (election not in dispute or too close to call) by the end of the year. 9%
* A Euro hits $1 US. (EURUSD parity) at any time during the year. 9%
* Musk leaves Tesla for any reason (e.g. resigns or is fired). 9%
* USDJPY below 100 at any point during the year. 8%
* USDJPY above 130 at any point during the year. 7%
* Gold trades below $1000/oz at any time during the year. 7%
* Crude (WTIC) falls below the “modern” low of $26.05 at any time during the year. 7%
* A players' strike occurs in any of the four major US sports leagues (NBA, NFL, MLB, NHL). 7%
* US ends daylight savings time. 6%
* Cryptocurrency combined market cap on Coinmarketcap.com exceeds $1 trillion at any time during the year. 6%
* Social Security benefits are unfavorably modified (e.g. by means testing or a change to the COLA computation). 6%
* Any country leaves the Euro currency. 6%
* Another Supreme Court seat opens. 5%
* The Flippening: Etherium market cap is greater than Bitcoin (core/classic) at any time during the year. 5%
* The CBOE Volatility Index ($VIX) exceeds its 2008 record of 89.53 at any time during the year. 5%
* Anow Dow 30 component files for BK or propose a restructuring where existing equity will receive less than 10%. 5%
* The S&P has its largest one day percentage decline in history (bigger than 10/19/87 of 20.5%). 4%
* A nuclear weapon is used in anger. 2%

Another way to look at them is from most likely to least likely:

Prediction Average
* Donald Trump is re-elected (election not in dispute or too close to call) by the end of the year. 64%
* BREXIT is finalized and the UK officially leaves the E.U. 56%
* 2020 US vehicle sales (autos and light trucks/SUVs) are lower than 2019 vehicle sales. 55%
* US life expectancy declines for a fourth consecutive year (based on most recent data) 55%
* BYND ends the year below its IPO day closing price of $65.75 AND PTON ends the year below its IPO day closing price of $25.76. 55%
* The Vanguard Balanced Index Fund (VBINX, 60/40) has a positive return for the year. 54%
* Federal Reserve lowers target rate any times (in 25bps equivalents) in 2020. 54%
* A Category 3 hurricane makes landfall in the continental U.S. 51%
* The 20+ year Treasury ETF (TLT) has a positive price return (not including dividends) for the year. 47%
* The S&P Retail ETF (XRT) outperforms Amazon for the year. 47%
* Federal Reserve bank balance sheet total assets (FRED:WALCL) increase to above $4.75 trillion at any point.. 46%
* Buying equal dollar basket of FB/AAPL/NFLX/GOOGL returns below 0% for the year (including dividends). 45%
* Crude (WTIC) trades above the 2018 high of $76.90 at any time during the year. 43%
* Boeing 737 MAX aircraft resume service in the U.S., the E.U., or Canada. 41%
* Frontier Communications pays its unsecured bond maturing in April 2020. 40%
* A tropical cyclone makes the list of 10 wettest on the U.S. Mainland (for the fourth year in a row). 39%
* Hussman's fund (HSGFX) is up for the entire year including dividends. 39%
* TSLA share price goes below $200 at any point. 39%
* The S&P goes above 3,750 at any time during the year. 37%
* The S&P goes below 2,750 at any time during the year. 37%
* A 2 year treasury yields more than 10 year Treasury at any time during the year. 36%
* Either Buffett or Munger dies. 36%
* The CBOE Volatility Index ($VIX) exceeds 40 at any time during the year. 35%
* The 13-week T-bill yield ($IRX) goes below 1% at any time during the year. 34%
* Trump pardons anyone involved with the Mueller inquiry, Martin Shkreli, OR Rod Blagojevich. 34%
* Pelosi is no longer the Speaker of House as of 12/31/20. 33%
* Total return of 1 year T-bill outperforms all of S&P 500, Nasdaq, and bitcoin for the year. 33%
* Any country's sovereign debt that is currently current goes into default at any point during the year. 31%
* Any of the following countries' 10-year government bonds yield more than US at end of year: Germany, Italy, Canada. 31%
* Either Rep. AOC (D-NY) or Rep. Ilhan Omar (D-MN) lose reelection. 28%
* Gold trades above $2000/oz at any time during the year. 28%
* Another Supreme Court seat opens. 28%
* At least 4 of HOSS, CRC, CHK, FTR, MNK, JCP file for BK or propose a restructuring where existing equity will receive less than 10%. 26%
* USDJPY below 100 at any point during the year. 26%
* China wins more medals than the US in the 2020 Olympics 24%
* Any two or more Epstein associates are charged with Epstein-related offenses by any government 24%
* One or more of Kim/Merkel/Saudis loses power (dies, resigns, or is deposed). 24%
* Cannabis is removed from the federal list of Schedule 1 drugs. 23%
* The S&P has a one day percentage decline greater than 5%. 23%
* Federal Reserve raises target rate any times (in 25bps equivalents) in 2020. 23%
* The Senate holds a Trump impeachment trial and two or more GOP Senators vote to convict. 23%
* One or more of Macron, Trudeau, or Erdogan loses power (dies, resigns, or is deposed). 22%
* The 10 year Treasury yield falls below the July 6, 2016 low of 1.336% at any time during the year. 22%
* The 13-week T-bill yield ($IRX) exceeds 2% at any time during the year. 21%
* The BBB yield closes above 5% at any time during the year. 21%
* Twitter is taken private or acquired. 20%
* The 10 year Treasury yield rises above the 2018 high yield of 3.24% at any time during the year. 20%
* A Euro hits $1 US. (EURUSD parity) at any time during the year. 19%
* Global negative yielding debt goes under $1 trillion at any time during the year. 19%
* TSLA share price goes above $800 at any point. 19%
* A referendum on leaving the EU is held (win or lose) in another EU country. 18%
* Musk leaves Tesla for any reason (e.g. resigns or is fired). 16%
* A terrorist attack using commercial drones kills someone in US or Europe. 13%
* USDJPY above 130 at any point during the year. 13%
* The most current 13F as of 12/31/19 of the Swiss National Bank shows a balance below $45 billion of equities. 12%
* The S&P has a one day percentage increase greater than 5%. 12%
* A players' strike occurs in any of the four major US sports leagues (NBA, NFL, MLB, NHL). 10%
* Crude (WTIC) falls below the “modern” low of $26.05 at any time during the year. 10%
* Gold trades below $1000/oz at any time during the year. 10%
* Social Security benefits are unfavorably modified (e.g. by means testing or a change to the COLA computation). 9%
* Any country leaves the Euro currency. 8%
* Cryptocurrency combined market cap on Coinmarketcap.com exceeds $1 trillion at any time during the year. 8%
* The Flippening: Etherium market cap is greater than Bitcoin (core/classic) at any time during the year. 6%
* The CBOE Volatility Index ($VIX) exceeds its 2008 record of 89.53 at any time during the year. 6%
* Anow Dow 30 component files for BK or propose a restructuring where existing equity will receive less than 10%. 6%
* US ends daylight savings time. 6%
* The S&P has its largest one day percentage decline in history (bigger than 10/19/87 of 20.5%). 3%
* A nuclear weapon is used in anger. 1%

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

Prediction: Russia invades Finland.100%