2020 Prediction Contest Results

The 2020 prediction contest events have been scored, and the results are in. We had nine participants this year, and the results are as follows:

• In last place with a score of -67, our own guest correspondent @pdxsag. He had put 99% chances for a number of events that didn't happen, and 1% chances for some that did. With our logarithmic scoring system, being off by 99% in either direction subtracts ln(0.01)=-4.61 from your final score.
  
• @barbariancap with a score of -50; he was second place in 2018
  
• @unionsquareresearch, -48.6
• @sonimantennis (aka 2019 second place winner Bjdubbs), -42.9
• @TwainsMustache, -42.3
• @inner_scorecard, -39.8
• "Yours truly," @thecreditbubble, -39.6
• Last year's winner in second place this year, @irbezek, -39.3
• Winner: @walt373, -38.6; he was third place in 2019
  

You can tell which predictions made the contest results by which ones had the highest standard deviation of probability percentage going into the contest: whether TSLA would go below $200 (pre-split), whether the Boeing 737 would return to service (it did), whether 2020 vehicle sales would decline, and so forth.

This may be the last prediction contest, or at least we may take a break from having a 2021 contest. 

For the contest itself was really a multi-year experiment in the folly of prediction. The year 2020 illustrated that for us perfectly. No one ever thought to include a pandemic, or lockdowns, or riots and curfews in hundreds of cities, or burned down police stations as potential events.

And what probability would anyone have given, one year ago, to this event: "The S&P 500 will hit an all time high during a week when passenger air travel (as measured by TSA checkpoint throughput) is down 75%"? Or how about this event, what probability: "Elon Musk will become the second richest person in the world, without demonstrating a new battery technology, establishing level 5 autonomous driving, or even selling more than half the units of Ford's F-series of trucks"?

The winners of the contest are never the same from year to year. The one constant is that the overconfident do poorly. Having extremely confident predictions (e.g. 90% or 10%) on any event that is contentious among participants (has a high standard deviation) is associated with poor performance in the contest. The better performing contestants seem to have an easier time intuitively feeling the range of outcomes that a trip through life's quincunx can deliver.

What seems to happen specifically is that a very rigid set of expectations, a very definite view, a simple narrative, crashes on the rocks of reality. In fact, I am learning to avoid any kind of simple narrative for thinking about the future. Consider predictions such as, "there's going to be hyperinflation / a crash / a civil war" next year. Reality is a lot more complicated. Bitcoin hit an all time high and oil hit an all time low in 2020. What probability would anyone have given that? And does it fit a simple label like "hyperinflation"?

Since we can't predict, what can we do? The only investing strategy that I can think of for coping with the utter impossibility of prediction is diversification among that which is cheap.

Previously, the 2015, 2016, and 2017, 2018, and 2019 prediction contest results.

2020 Prediction Contest - Preliminary Scoring

Before we score the prediction contest, we need to figure out which of the events officially Happened and which ones did not. Here is my preliminary assessment, please tell me whether you agree.

Happened

• Boeing 737 MAX aircraft resume service in the U.S., the E.U., or Canada.
• 2020 US vehicle sales (autos and light trucks/SUVs) are lower than 2019 vehicle sales.
• The 13-week T-bill yield ($IRX) goes below 1% at any time during the year.
• The 20+ year Treasury ETF (TLT) has a positive price return (not including dividends) for the year.
• Federal Reserve lowers target rate any times (in 25bps equivalents) in 2020.
• The S&P goes above 3,750 at any time during the year.
• Trump pardons anyone involved with the Mueller inquiry, Martin Shkreli, OR Rod Blagojevich.
• The Vanguard Balanced Index Fund (VBINX, 60/40) has a positive return for the year.
• Federal Reserve bank balance sheet total assets (FRED:WALCL) increase to above $4.75 trillion at any point.
• At least 4 of HOSS, CRC, CHK, FTR, MNK, JCP file for BK or propose a restructuring where existing equity will receive less than 10%.
• Hussman's fund (HSGFX) is up for the entire year including dividends.
• The S&P has a one day percentage decline greater than 5%.
• The CBOE Volatility Index ($VIX) exceeds 40 at any time during the year.
• The S&P goes below 2,750 at any time during the year.
• The 10 year Treasury yield falls below the July 6, 2016 low of 1.336% at any time during the year.
• The S&P has a one day percentage increase greater than 5%.
• TSLA share price goes above $800 at any point.
• Crude (WTIC) falls below the “modern” low of $26.05 at any time during the year.
• Another Supreme Court seat opens.
  

Didn't Happen 

• TSLA share price goes below $200 at any point.
• Frontier Communications pays its unsecured bond maturing in April 2020.
• Twitter is taken private or acquired.
• A 2 year treasury yields more than 10 year Treasury at any time during the year.
• A terrorist attack using commercial drones kills someone in US or Europe.
• The S&P Retail ETF (XRT) outperforms Amazon for the year.
• A tropical cyclone makes the list of 10 wettest on the U.S. Mainland (for the fourth year in a row).
• China wins more medals than the US in the 2020 Olympics
• Buying equal dollar basket of FB/AAPL/NFLX/GOOGL returns below 0% for the year (including dividends).
• A Category 3 hurricane makes landfall in the continental U.S.
• Any country's sovereign debt that is currently current goes into default at any point during the year.
• The Senate holds a Trump impeachment trial and two or more GOP Senators vote to convict.
• US life expectancy declines for a fourth consecutive year (based on most recent data)
• BYND ends the year below its IPO day closing price of $65.75 AND PTON ends the year below its IPO day closing price of $25.76.
• The 13-week T-bill yield ($IRX) exceeds 2% at any time during the year.
• BREXIT is finalized and the UK officially leaves the E.U.
• Global negative yielding debt goes under $1 trillion at any time during the year.
• Gold trades above $2000/oz at any time during the year.
• Either Rep. AOC (D-NY) or Rep. Ilhan Omar (D-MN) lose reelection.
• Cannabis is removed from the federal list of Schedule 1 drugs.
• Any of the following countries' 10-year government bonds yield more than US at end of year: Germany, Italy, Canada.
• Any two or more Epstein associates are charged with Epstein-related offenses by any government
• Crude (WTIC) trades above the 2018 high of $76.90 at any time during the year.
• Pelosi is no longer the Speaker of House as of 12/31/20.
• One or more of Kim/Merkel/Saudis loses power (dies, resigns, or is deposed).
• A referendum on leaving the EU is held (win or lose) in another EU country.
• Federal Reserve raises target rate any times (in 25bps equivalents) in 2020.
• Total return of 1 year T-bill outperforms all of S&P 500, Nasdaq, and bitcoin for the year.
• One or more of Macron, Trudeau, or Erdogan loses power (dies, resigns, or is deposed).
• The BBB yield closes above 5% at any time during the year.
• The most current 13F as of 12/31/19 of the Swiss National Bank shows a balance below $45 billion of equities.
• The 10 year Treasury yield rises above the 2018 high yield of 3.24% at any time during the year.
• Either Buffett or Munger dies.
• Donald Trump is re-elected (election not in dispute or too close to call) by the end of the year.
• A Euro hits $1 US. (EURUSD parity) at any time during the year.
• Musk leaves Tesla for any reason (e.g. resigns or is fired).
• USDJPY below 100 at any point during the year.
• USDJPY above 130 at any point during the year.
• Gold trades below $1000/oz at any time during the year.
• A players' strike occurs in any of the four major US sports leagues (NBA, NFL, MLB, NHL).
• US ends daylight savings time.
• Cryptocurrency combined market cap on Coinmarketcap.com exceeds $1 trillion at any time during the year.
• Social Security benefits are unfavorably modified (e.g. by means testing or a change to the COLA computation).
• Any country leaves the Euro currency.
• The Flippening: Etherium market cap is greater than Bitcoin (core/classic) at any time during the year.
• The CBOE Volatility Index ($VIX) exceeds its 2008 record of 89.53 at any time during the year.
• Any Dow 30 component files for BK or propose a restructuring where existing equity will receive less than 10%.
• The S&P has its largest one day percentage decline in history (bigger than 10/19/87 of 20.5%).
• A nuclear weapon is used in anger.   
  

2020 Prediction Contest - Predictions Are In!

Here are the predictions sorted from highest standard deviation to lowest - most contentious to least.

Prediction	SD
* TSLA share price goes below $200 at any point.	27%
* Frontier Communications pays its unsecured bond maturing in April 2020.	24%
* Boeing 737 MAX aircraft resume service in the U.S., the E.U., or Canada.	23%
* 2020 US vehicle sales (autos and light trucks/SUVs) are lower than 2019 vehicle sales.	23%
* Twitter is taken private or acquired.	22%
* The 13-week T-bill yield ($IRX) goes below 1% at any time during the year.	21%
* The 20+ year Treasury ETF (TLT) has a positive price return (not including dividends) for the year.	21%
* A 2 year treasury yields more than 10 year Treasury at any time during the year.	20%
* Federal Reserve lowers target rate any times (in 25bps equivalents) in 2020.	20%
* A terrorist attack using commercial drones kills someone in US or Europe.	20%
* The S&P goes above 3,750 at any time during the year.	20%
* Trump pardons anyone involved with the Mueller inquiry, Martin Shkreli, OR Rod Blagojevich.	19%
* The Vanguard Balanced Index Fund (VBINX, 60/40) has a positive return for the year.	19%
* Federal Reserve bank balance sheet total assets (FRED:WALCL) increase to above $4.75 trillion at any point..	18%
* The S&P Retail ETF (XRT) outperforms Amazon for the year.	18%
* At least 4 of HOSS, CRC, CHK, FTR, MNK, JCP file for BK or propose a restructuring where existing equity will receive less than 10%.	18%
* A tropical cyclone makes the list of 10 wettest on the U.S. Mainland (for the fourth year in a row).	18%
* China wins more medals than the US in the 2020 Olympics	18%
* Buying equal dollar basket of FB/AAPL/NFLX/GOOGL returns below 0% for the year (including dividends).	17%
* Hussman's fund (HSGFX) is up for the entire year including dividends.	17%
* A Category 3 hurricane makes landfall in the continental U.S.	17%
* Any country's sovereign debt that is currently current goes into default at any point during the year.	17%
* The Senate holds a Trump impeachment trial and two or more GOP Senators vote to convict.	16%
* US life expectancy declines for a fourth consecutive year (based on most recent data)	16%
* BYND ends the year below its IPO day closing price of $65.75 AND PTON ends the year below its IPO day closing price of $25.76.	16%
* The 13-week T-bill yield ($IRX) exceeds 2% at any time during the year.	16%
* BREXIT is finalized and the UK officially leaves the E.U.	16%
* Global negative yielding debt goes under $1 trillion at any time during the year.	16%
* Gold trades above $2000/oz at any time during the year.	15%
* Either Rep. AOC (D-NY) or Rep. Ilhan Omar (D-MN) lose reelection.	15%
* Cannabis is removed from the federal list of Schedule 1 drugs.	15%
* Any of the following countries' 10-year government bonds yield more than US at end of year: Germany, Italy, Canada.	14%
* Any two or more Epstein associates are charged with Epstein-related offenses by any government	14%
* The S&P has a one day percentage decline greater than 5%.	14%
* Crude (WTIC) trades above the 2018 high of $76.90 at any time during the year.	14%
* Pelosi is no longer the Speaker of House as of 12/31/20.	13%
* One or more of Kim/Merkel/Saudis loses power (dies, resigns, or is deposed).	13%
* A referendum on leaving the EU is held (win or lose) in another EU country.	13%
* Federal Reserve raises target rate any times (in 25bps equivalents) in 2020.	13%
* Total return of 1 year T-bill outperforms all of S&P 500, Nasdaq, and bitcoin for the year.	13%
* One or more of Macron, Trudeau, or Erdogan loses power (dies, resigns, or is deposed).	12%
* The BBB yield closes above 5% at any time during the year.	12%
* The most current 13F as of 12/31/19 of the Swiss National Bank shows a balance below $45 billion of equities.	12%
* The CBOE Volatility Index ($VIX) exceeds 40 at any time during the year.	11%
* The 10 year Treasury yield rises above the 2018 high yield of 3.24% at any time during the year.	11%
* The S&P goes below 2,750 at any time during the year.	10%
* The 10 year Treasury yield falls below the July 6, 2016 low of 1.336% at any time during the year.	10%
* The S&P has a one day percentage increase greater than 5%.	10%
* TSLA share price goes above $800 at any point.	10%
* Either Buffett or Munger dies.	10%
* Donald Trump is re-elected (election not in dispute or too close to call) by the end of the year.	9%
* A Euro hits $1 US. (EURUSD parity) at any time during the year.	9%
* Musk leaves Tesla for any reason (e.g. resigns or is fired).	9%
* USDJPY below 100 at any point during the year.	8%
* USDJPY above 130 at any point during the year.	7%
* Gold trades below $1000/oz at any time during the year.	7%
* Crude (WTIC) falls below the “modern” low of $26.05 at any time during the year.	7%
* A players' strike occurs in any of the four major US sports leagues (NBA, NFL, MLB, NHL).	7%
* US ends daylight savings time.	6%
* Cryptocurrency combined market cap on Coinmarketcap.com exceeds $1 trillion at any time during the year.	6%
* Social Security benefits are unfavorably modified (e.g. by means testing or a change to the COLA computation).	6%
* Any country leaves the Euro currency.	6%
* Another Supreme Court seat opens.	5%
* The Flippening: Etherium market cap is greater than Bitcoin (core/classic) at any time during the year.	5%
* The CBOE Volatility Index ($VIX) exceeds its 2008 record of 89.53 at any time during the year.	5%
* Anow Dow 30 component files for BK or propose a restructuring where existing equity will receive less than 10%.	5%
* The S&P has its largest one day percentage decline in history (bigger than 10/19/87 of 20.5%).	4%
* A nuclear weapon is used in anger.	2%

Another way to look at them is from most likely to least likely:

Prediction	Average
* Donald Trump is re-elected (election not in dispute or too close to call) by the end of the year.	64%
* BREXIT is finalized and the UK officially leaves the E.U.	56%
* 2020 US vehicle sales (autos and light trucks/SUVs) are lower than 2019 vehicle sales.	55%
* US life expectancy declines for a fourth consecutive year (based on most recent data)	55%
* BYND ends the year below its IPO day closing price of $65.75 AND PTON ends the year below its IPO day closing price of $25.76.	55%
* The Vanguard Balanced Index Fund (VBINX, 60/40) has a positive return for the year.	54%
* Federal Reserve lowers target rate any times (in 25bps equivalents) in 2020.	54%
* A Category 3 hurricane makes landfall in the continental U.S.	51%
* The 20+ year Treasury ETF (TLT) has a positive price return (not including dividends) for the year.	47%
* The S&P Retail ETF (XRT) outperforms Amazon for the year.	47%
* Federal Reserve bank balance sheet total assets (FRED:WALCL) increase to above $4.75 trillion at any point..	46%
* Buying equal dollar basket of FB/AAPL/NFLX/GOOGL returns below 0% for the year (including dividends).	45%
* Crude (WTIC) trades above the 2018 high of $76.90 at any time during the year.	43%
* Boeing 737 MAX aircraft resume service in the U.S., the E.U., or Canada.	41%
* Frontier Communications pays its unsecured bond maturing in April 2020.	40%
* A tropical cyclone makes the list of 10 wettest on the U.S. Mainland (for the fourth year in a row).	39%
* Hussman's fund (HSGFX) is up for the entire year including dividends.	39%
* TSLA share price goes below $200 at any point.	39%
* The S&P goes above 3,750 at any time during the year.	37%
* The S&P goes below 2,750 at any time during the year.	37%
* A 2 year treasury yields more than 10 year Treasury at any time during the year.	36%
* Either Buffett or Munger dies.	36%
* The CBOE Volatility Index ($VIX) exceeds 40 at any time during the year.	35%
* The 13-week T-bill yield ($IRX) goes below 1% at any time during the year.	34%
* Trump pardons anyone involved with the Mueller inquiry, Martin Shkreli, OR Rod Blagojevich.	34%
* Pelosi is no longer the Speaker of House as of 12/31/20.	33%
* Total return of 1 year T-bill outperforms all of S&P 500, Nasdaq, and bitcoin for the year.	33%
* Any country's sovereign debt that is currently current goes into default at any point during the year.	31%
* Any of the following countries' 10-year government bonds yield more than US at end of year: Germany, Italy, Canada.	31%
* Either Rep. AOC (D-NY) or Rep. Ilhan Omar (D-MN) lose reelection.	28%
* Gold trades above $2000/oz at any time during the year.	28%
* Another Supreme Court seat opens.	28%
* At least 4 of HOSS, CRC, CHK, FTR, MNK, JCP file for BK or propose a restructuring where existing equity will receive less than 10%.	26%
* USDJPY below 100 at any point during the year.	26%
* China wins more medals than the US in the 2020 Olympics	24%
* Any two or more Epstein associates are charged with Epstein-related offenses by any government	24%
* One or more of Kim/Merkel/Saudis loses power (dies, resigns, or is deposed).	24%
* Cannabis is removed from the federal list of Schedule 1 drugs.	23%
* The S&P has a one day percentage decline greater than 5%.	23%
* Federal Reserve raises target rate any times (in 25bps equivalents) in 2020.	23%
* The Senate holds a Trump impeachment trial and two or more GOP Senators vote to convict.	23%
* One or more of Macron, Trudeau, or Erdogan loses power (dies, resigns, or is deposed).	22%
* The 10 year Treasury yield falls below the July 6, 2016 low of 1.336% at any time during the year.	22%
* The 13-week T-bill yield ($IRX) exceeds 2% at any time during the year.	21%
* The BBB yield closes above 5% at any time during the year.	21%
* Twitter is taken private or acquired.	20%
* The 10 year Treasury yield rises above the 2018 high yield of 3.24% at any time during the year.	20%
* A Euro hits $1 US. (EURUSD parity) at any time during the year.	19%
* Global negative yielding debt goes under $1 trillion at any time during the year.	19%
* TSLA share price goes above $800 at any point.	19%
* A referendum on leaving the EU is held (win or lose) in another EU country.	18%
* Musk leaves Tesla for any reason (e.g. resigns or is fired).	16%
* A terrorist attack using commercial drones kills someone in US or Europe.	13%
* USDJPY above 130 at any point during the year.	13%
* The most current 13F as of 12/31/19 of the Swiss National Bank shows a balance below $45 billion of equities.	12%
* The S&P has a one day percentage increase greater than 5%.	12%
* A players' strike occurs in any of the four major US sports leagues (NBA, NFL, MLB, NHL).	10%
* Crude (WTIC) falls below the “modern” low of $26.05 at any time during the year.	10%
* Gold trades below $1000/oz at any time during the year.	10%
* Social Security benefits are unfavorably modified (e.g. by means testing or a change to the COLA computation).	9%
* Any country leaves the Euro currency.	8%
* Cryptocurrency combined market cap on Coinmarketcap.com exceeds $1 trillion at any time during the year.	8%
* The Flippening: Etherium market cap is greater than Bitcoin (core/classic) at any time during the year.	6%
* The CBOE Volatility Index ($VIX) exceeds its 2008 record of 89.53 at any time during the year.	6%
* Anow Dow 30 component files for BK or propose a restructuring where existing equity will receive less than 10%.	6%
* US ends daylight savings time.	6%
* The S&P has its largest one day percentage decline in history (bigger than 10/19/87 of 20.5%).	3%
* A nuclear weapon is used in anger.	1%

2020 Prediction Contest

The 2019 prediction contest is over with the prize winner announced - it is time for the 2020 version!

In our quest to continually improve the contest, we have a larger number of questions this year than in earlier years. Please do not let that discourage you. The larger sample size should increase the likelihood that the winner is the best calibrated predictor.

All probabilities are due by this Sunday, January the 12th at noon Pacific time. Post your probabilities in the comments section below. Either leave an email address, a twitter handle, or post using an account so that we can verify the winner's identity next year. (You could also leave a link to a Google Doc, etc.) Please leave a Twitter handle in any case as we will try to give some periodic updates "@" people throughout the year.

Finally, remember the logarithmic scoring system. As Wikipedia explains, "a prediction of 80% that correctly proved true would receive a score of ln(0.8) = -0.22. This same prediction also assigns 20% likelihood to the opposite case, and so if the prediction proves false, it would receive a score based on the 20%: ln(0.2) = -1.6. The goal of a forecaster is to maximize the score and for the score to be as large as possible, and -0.22 is indeed larger than -1.6."

Here are the questions (total of 68):

* A Category 3 hurricane makes landfall in the continental U.S.

* A tropical cyclone makes the list of 10 wettest on the U.S. Mainland (for the fourth year in a row).

* Musk leaves Tesla for any reason (e.g. resigns or is fired).

* TSLA share price goes below $200 at any point.

* TSLA share price goes above $800 at any point.

* Anow Dow 30 component files for BK or propose a restructuring where existing equity will receive less than 10%.

* At least 4 of HOSS, CRC, CHK, FTR, MNK, JCP file for BK or propose a restructuring where existing equity will receive less than 10%.

* Frontier Communications pays its unsecured bond maturing in April 2020.

* 2020 US vehicle sales (autos and light trucks/SUVs) are lower than 2019 vehicle sales.

* A players' strike occurs in any of the four major US sports leagues (NBA, NFL, MLB, NHL).

* Twitter is taken private or acquired.

* Boeing 737 MAX aircraft resume service in the U.S., the E.U., or Canada.

* China wins more medals than the US in the 2020 Olympics

* A terrorist attack using commercial drones kills someone in US or Europe.

* US life expectancy declines for a fourth consecutive year (based on most recent data)

* Cannabis is removed from the federal list of Schedule 1 drugs.

* Donald Trump is re-elected (election not in dispute or too close to call) by the end of the year.

* The Senate holds a Trump impeachment trial and two or more GOP Senators vote to convict.

* US ends daylight savings time.

* One or more of Kim/Merkel/Saudis loses power (dies, resigns, or is deposed).

* One or more of Macron, Trudeau, or Erdogan loses power (dies, resigns, or is deposed).

* A nuclear weapon is used in anger.

* BREXIT is finalized and the UK officially leaves the E.U.

* Any two or more Epstein associates are charged with Epstein-related offenses by any government

* A referendum on leaving the EU is held (win or lose) in another EU country.

* Either Rep. AOC (D-NY) or Rep. Ilhan Omar (D-MN) lose reelection.

* Trump pardons anyone involved with the Mueller inquiry, Martin Shkreli, OR Rod Blagojevich.

* Either Buffett or Munger dies.

* Another Supreme Court seat opens.

* Pelosi is no longer the Speaker of House as of 12/31/20.

* Social Security benefits are unfavorably modified (e.g. by means testing or a change to the COLA computation).

* Cryptocurrency combined market cap on Coinmarketcap.com exceeds $1 trillion at any time during the year.

* The Flippening: Etherium market cap is greater than Bitcoin (core/classic) at any time during the year.

* Any country leaves the Euro currency.

* A Euro hits $1 US. (EURUSD parity) at any time during the year.

* Crude (WTIC) trades above the 2018 high of $76.90 at any time during the year.

* Crude (WTIC) falls below the “modern” low of $26.05 at any time during the year.

* USDJPY below 100 at any point during the year.

* USDJPY above 130 at any point during the year.

* Federal Reserve bank balance sheet total assets (FRED:WALCL) increase to above $4.75 trillion at any point..

* Federal Reserve raises target rate any times (in 25bps equivalents) in 2020.

* Federal Reserve lowers target rate any times (in 25bps equivalents) in 2020.

* The 13-week T-bill yield ($IRX) exceeds 2% at any time during the year.

* The 13-week T-bill yield ($IRX) goes below 1% at any time during the year.

* Global negative yielding debt goes under $1 trillion at any time during the year.

* The 10 year Treasury yield falls below the July 6, 2016 low of 1.336% at any time during the year.

* The 10 year Treasury yield rises above the 2018 high yield of 3.24% at any time during the year.

* Any of the following countries' 10-year government bonds yield more than US at end of year: Germany, Italy, Canada.

* The 20+ year Treasury ETF (TLT) has a positive price return (not including dividends) for the year.

* Any country's sovereign debt that is currently current goes into default at any point during the year.

* Total return of 1 year T-bill outperforms all of S&P 500, Nasdaq, and bitcoin for the year.

* The S&P goes below 2,750 at any time during the year.

* The S&P goes above 3,750 at any time during the year.

* The BBB yield closes above 5% at any time during the year.

* A 2 year treasury yields more than 10 year Treasury at any time during the year.

* The S&P Retail ETF (XRT) outperforms Amazon for the year.

* Gold trades below $1000/oz at any time during the year.

* Gold trades above $2000/oz at any time during the year.

* Buying equal dollar basket of FB/AAPL/NFLX/GOOGL returns below 0% for the year (including dividends).

* The CBOE Volatility Index ($VIX) exceeds 40 at any time during the year.

* The CBOE Volatility Index ($VIX) exceeds its 2008 record of 89.53 at any time during the year.

* The most current 13F as of 12/31/19 of the Swiss National Bank shows a balance below $45 billion of equities.

* The S&P has its largest one day percentage decline in history (bigger than 10/19/87 of 20.5%).

* The S&P has a one day percentage decline greater than 5%.

* The S&P has a one day percentage increase greater than 5%.

* The Vanguard Balanced Index Fund (VBINX, 60/40) has a positive return for the year.

* Hussman's fund (HSGFX) is up for the entire year including dividends.

* BYND ends the year below its IPO day closing price of $65.75 AND PTON ends the year below its IPO day closing price of $25.76.

2019 Prediction Contest Results

Yesterday we posted the biggest upsets from the 2019 prediction contest. Everyone seemed to agree with our scoring of whether the events happened or not, so it's time to announce the results:

First Place - score of -25.11 - commenter Ian Bezek
Second Place - score of -25.32 - commenter bjdubbs
Third place - score of -26 - commenter Walter

[Higher (i.e. less negative) scores are better.]

This was a huge comeback for bjdubbs, who was in last place in the 2018 contest. Ian Bezek was new to the contest this year. Last year's winner Tom came in with -35.85 this year. Last year's second place @barbariancap came in with a score of -36.89. Your host CP had a -30.42 score this year.

If you look at the most contentious questions for 2019 these actually were not the ones that cost people the most points. What really hurts (due to the logarithmic scoring method) is not being wrong, but being highly confident and wrong.

Interest rates falling and the S&P rising above 3,000 were the unexpected surprises that pushed many people to the back of the pack. The lowest chance that anyone gave for SPX3K was 5% but Ian Bezek gave it a 50% shot - the highest. Interestingly, though, even if SPX had not gone above 3,000, Ian and bjdubbs would have just switched places for 1st and 2nd.

The Fed lowering rates in 2019 was another costly surprise for many people. One person gave this a 1% chance! The highest anyone gave it was a 70% chance. We shouldn't have differences that big. Interest rates are a highly unpredictable macroeconomic variable - a confidence level implied by the 1% prediction was unjustified. Also, the base rate of the Fed turning the ship around and reversing a rate increase or decrease cycle is a lot higher than 1% over the past century.

I would like to see whether there is a way to have the contest synthesize better predictions (the average of all contestants' entries) by having the contestants learn from the others' predictions - but without inducing groupthink. One idea would be to publish the averages after everyone submits, and strongly encourage everyone to look at the average and consider revising his predictions.

Previously, the 2015, 2016, and 2017 prediction contest results. Stay tuned for the 2020 contest announcement!

Biggest Upsets in the 2019 Credit Bubble Stocks Prediction Contest

I invite everyone - especially the 2019 contest participants - to see whether they agree with the happen/didn't happen scoring of all these predictions. (In particular, we are saying that "twerking" in Congress did not happen even though AOC did post some silly videos.)

Most of the possible events ("predictions") did not happen; only 13 did. Of those, seven were "upsets" that were not expected (by the consensus - the average) to happen. The biggest upset by far was the S&P 500 going above 3,000.

Also - please post suggestions for 2020 contest predictions in the comments. We will work on getting that set up over the next week or so.

Prediction	Happen?	Average	UPSET?
* Donald Trump is still President of the United States at the end of the year.	1	86%
* 2019 US vehicle sales (autos and light trucks/SUVs) are lower than 2018 vehicle sales.	1	63%
* A 2 year treasury yields more than 10 year Treasury at any time during the year.	1	60%
* Federal Reserve bank balance sheet total assets (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WALCL) declines to below $4 trillion.	1	59%
* TSLA share price goes below $200 at any point.	1	56%
* Any of the Democratic presidential debates in 2019 has 12 or more candidates appearing (including undercard).	1	53%
* The Vanguard Balanced Index Fund (VBINX, 60/40) has a positive return for the year.	1	48%	UPSET
* The 20+ year Treasury ETF (TLT) has a positive price return (not including dividends) for the year.	1	42%	UPSET
* A tropical cyclone makes the list of 10 wettest on the U.S. Mainland (for the third year in a row).	1	34%	UPSET
* One or more of Gross/Ackman/Miller/Hussman/Einhorn/Berkowitz leaves asset management in any manner.	1	31%	UPSET
* The 13-week T-bill yield ($IRX) ends the year below 2%.	1	25%	UPSET
* Federal Reserve lowers target rate any times (in 25bps equivalents) in 2019.	1	22%	UPSET
* The S&P goes above 3,000 at any time during the year.	1	21%	UPSET
* The CBOE Volatility Index ($VIX) exceeds 40 at any time during the year.	0	61%	UPSET
* A Category 3 hurricane makes landfall in the continental U.S (for the third year in a row).	0	54%	UPSET
* A primary challenger to Donald Trump emerges and polls higher than 10%.	0	53%	UPSET
* The 13-week T-bill yield ($IRX) exceeds 2.5% at any time during the year.	0	52%	UPSET
* Federal Reserve raises target rate two times (in 25bps equivalents) in 2019.	0	52%	UPSET
* The BBB yield closes above 5% at any time during the year.	0	52%	UPSET
* Buying equal dollar basket of FB/AAPL/NFLX/GOOGL returns below 0% for the year (including dividends).	0	46%
* Any of GE, JCP, or FTR file for bankruptcy protection or propose a restructuring where existing equity will receive less than 10%.	0	46%
* The S&P Retail ETF (XRT) outperforms Amazon for the year.	0	43%
* Hussman's fund (HSGFX) is up for the entire year including dividends.	0	42%
* A year with no commercial jet aircraft fatal plane incidents.	0	41%
* Tesla gets a going concern warning, has its auditor resign, or Musk is arrested, indicted, leaves the company, or is fired.	0	38%
* The S&P goes below 2,000 at any time during the year.	0	37%
* Total return of 1 year T-bill outperforms S&P 500, Nasdaq, and bitcoin for the year.	0	37%
* The 10 year Treasury yield rises above the 2018 high yield of 3.24% at any time during the year.	0	34%
* Any of the following countries' 10-year government bonds yield more than US at end of year: Germany, Italy, Canada.	0	30%
* Donald Trump pardons anyone prosecuted by the Special Counsel.	0	30%
* USDJPY below 100 at any point during the year.	0	30%
* Another Supreme Court seat opens.	0	30%
* One or more of Macron, Trudeau, or Erdogan loses power (dies, resigns, or is deposed).	0	29%
* Either Buffett or Munger dies.	0	28%
* One or more of Kim/Merkel/Saudis loses power (dies, resigns, or is deposed).	0	27%
* The USD/RMB exchange rate goes over 8 at any time during the year.	0	27%
* Crude (WTIC) trades above the 2018 high of $76.90 at any time during the year.	0	27%
* Any member of Congress posts a video “twerking” (or similar) at the Capitol or in a Congressional building.	0	25%
* The most current 13F as of 12/31/19 of the Swiss National Bank shows a balance below $45 billion of equities.	0	25%
* A Euro hits $1 US. (EURUSD parity) at any time during the year.	0	24%
* A Decacorn (nonpublic company, peak valuation >$10 billion) is uncovered as a fraud.	0	20%
* None of Uber, Lyft, Slack, Pinterest, Robin Hood, or Palantir complete an IPO or direct list their shares.	0	20%
* Global negative yielding debt goes under $1 trillion at any time during the year.	0	19%
* The S&P has a one day percentage decline greater than 7.5%.	0	19%
* Jerome Powell is no longer Fed Chairman on 12/31/19.	0	17%
* Trump announces that he won't run again in 2020.	0	17%
* Gold trades below $1000/oz at any time during the year.	0	16%
* The S&P has a one day percentage increase greater than 7.5%.	0	16%
* The CBOE Volatility Index ($VIX) exceeds its 2008 record of 89.53 at any time during the year.	0	14%
* USDJPY above 130 at any point during the year.	0	14%
* Gold trades above $2000/oz at any time during the year.	0	13%
* Any country leaves the Euro currency.	0	13%
* Pelosi is no longer the Speaker of House as of 12/31/19.	0	12%
* An earthquake of magnitude 7.5 or greater affects the continental United States.	0	12%
* The Flippening: Etherium market cap is greater than Bitcoin (core/classic) at any time during the year.	0	12%
* The 10 year Treasury yield falls below the July 6, 2016 low of 1.336% at any time during the year.	0	10%
* Twitter is taken private.	0	10%
* Federal Reserve bank balance sheet total assets (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WALCL) increase to above $5 trillion.	0	9%
* A players' strike occurs in any of the four major US sports leagues (NBA, NFL, MLB, NHL).	0	9%
* Crude (WTIC) falls below the “modern” low of $26.05 at any time during the year.	0	7%
* Any sort of #MeToo allegation is made against Warren Buffett in a mainstream newspaper.	0	6%
* Western Canadian Select trades at a premium to WTI at any time during the year.	0	6%
* Cryptocurrency combined market cap on Coinmarketcap.com exceeds $1 trillion at any time during the year.	0	5%
* The S&P has its largest one day percentage decline in history (bigger than 10/19/87 of 20.5%).	0	4%
* US ends daylight savings time.	0	3%
* Musk's “Boring Company” is revealed to be digging tunnels to smuggle drugs into the United States.	0	1%
* A nuclear weapon is used in anger.	0	1%

Ideas for 2020 Prediction Contest?

Our contestant Barbarian Capital (mentioned in previous contest post) has some suggestions for the upcoming 2020 prediction contest. Anybody else? Leave a comment below...

Financial (NEW)

- One or more cease to exist in its current form: Grubhub, Uber Eats, Postmates, DoorDash

- Adam Neumann and/or Patrick Byrne is formally charged by the SEC and/or the DOJ

- Bloomberg's stake in Bloomberg LP is sold (agreement signed, not close date)

- Any legal (ie court case) or governmental curtailment of index investing 

- At least one Ivy endowment makes a direct allocation to crypto

- At least one major VC fund ($1 bn+ AUM) is charged by the SEC or DOJ for any reason (ie mis-marking of investments, anti-competitive behavior, aiding and abetting fraud at a porfolio company, etc.)

- UBER + LYFT LTM GAAP loss exceeds $3 bn (as of Dec 2020) Q319 combined was ~$1.5 bn

- Formal anti-trust action against any "Big Tech" member by a federal agency

- Saudi Aramco fails to IPO or loses more than 30% of market cap at any time during 2020

- Sheryl Sandberg is no longer at FB as of 12/31/20

- BRK makes a single $50 bn+ cash acquisition (current cash is $128 bn) 

- Altria writes down JUUL by an additional $4.5 bn+ (invested $12.8; took a $4.5 hit)

- WeWork defaults on any bond or loan 

- At least 2 of the following go into restructuring: CHK WLL ASNA JCP TUP PRTY FTR

- MJ (pot etf) trades below $10 at any time in 2020 ($17 currently)

Finance x Politics (NEW)

- Donald Trump or a family member with confirmed $10+ million in short term capital gains 

- Means testing of any kind introduced for Social Security (for any birth year cohort)

- COLA for Social Security is substantially modified (ie chained CPI)  (for any birth year cohort)  

- Congress passes a bill that presents a major curtailment of cash returns to shareholders (limitations on buybacks and/or dividends)  

- A named executive officer ("NEO") of any US S&P 500 company is detained in Mainland China, Hong Kong or Macau for any reason  

- One or more states establish an "exit tax" for any group of former residents 

- One or more major state pension plans ($50 bn+ in obligations) are placed in any kind of special status 

- At least one new issue sovereign bond goes into default before first scheduled interest payment

- latest FRED for "all transactions house price index for NY-Jersey City- White Plains" is down by 10% of more (current: 295.72)

Politics (NEW)

- Donald Trump selects someone other than Mike Pence for VP candidate 

- One of the two major party presidential candidates endorses UBI

- Bloomberg runs as an independent/third party 

- Hillary Clinton runs for president 

- Rep. Ilhan Omar (D-MN) is not in office by 12/31/20

- Rep. AOC (D-NY) is not in office by 12/31/20

- Sen. Romney (R-UT) votes for DJT impeachment 

- NY Governor Andrew Cuomo is formally charged by the DOJ with corruption-related charges

- NYC Mayor Bill de Blasio is formally charged by the DOJ  with corruption-related charges

- Any current US state votes on secession from the union (referendum or state reps)  

- Alberta becomes the 51st US state 

- Greenland becomes a US territory

- Turkey de facto or de jure leaves NATO

- US and UK sign a comprehensive trade deal by 12/31/2020 

- US introduces a special immigration program for Hong Kong SAR passport holders 

- More than 500 US military and/or law enforcement personnel are deployed in Mexico at once at any time in 2020 

Other (NEW)

- Greta Thunberg is hospitalized for mental or undisclosed/generalized ("exhaustion") reasons 

- At least two Epstein associates are charged with Epstein-related offenses by any government

- US life expectancy declines for a fourth consecutive year (based on most recent data)

- At least one major league pro athlete (NFL/NBA/NHL/MLB/MLS) is involved in a sports betting scandal of any kind 

- Number of Americans giving up US passports is over 5,000 on an LTM basis (sub-3000 LTM now)

- San Francisco poop reports over 35,000/yr on most recent data (25,000 in 2018)

- China wins more medals than the US in the 2020 Olympics (2016: 70 vs. 121)

- Most recent data on the Harvard class Asian ethnicity percentage goes above 28% (22.9% prior year and 25.3% most recent) 

- Median SAT move by 20 pts +/- (2019 at 1059, 2018 at 1068)

- Martin Shkreli commutation or pardon (by 1/20/2021)

Looking Back on the Credit Bubble Stocks 2019 Prediction Contest

We are coming to the end of the 2019 prediction contest. (See the questions and the crowd consensus on probabilities.)

Longtime participant and prescient prediction suggester Barbarian Capital wrote in to say, "Looking at my suggestions from last year as I am thinking about next year's..." See below:

Financial (NEW)

- GE or TSLA or PG&E: chapter 11 or substantial equity dilution or restructuring of liabilities >>> PGC Chapter 11! 

- Low vol (50/50 USMV SPLV) underperforms SPY on a total return basis >>> neck in neck YTD

- Lloyd Blankfein is criminally charged in the US in relation to the MDB1 scandal >>> does not look like it... GS settlement talks 

- At least one Theranos BOD member is criminally charged in the US in relation to Theranos >>> not happening!

- SEC approves a cryptocurrency ETF >>> shot down another proposal I think 

- AMZN HQ2 is materially modified (current status 2x 25k jobs over 10 yrs in NYC and NoVA; subsidies in the billions) >>> BLEW UP!

- More than 10% of US AMZN workforce vote to, or joins, a union > nope

- FNMA and/or FMCC trade below $0.10 at any time during 2019   >> nope 

- The price return of a basket of KKR BX CG APO is below that of XLF price return for 2019 >>> PE outperformed by quite a bit

- Uber, Lyft, Slack, Pinterest, Palantir, Robin Hood: the median price return of all entities that IPO in 2019 is negative for 2019 from IPO price >>> YAS, the IPOs were weak

- Formal attempt by the US government to use anti-trust against any "Big Tech" member >>> House Anti Trust panel is seeking docs

- Facebook pays or agrees to pay $10 bn or more in relation to advertising fraud >>> paid $40 mm settlement in a private party suit

- Western Canadian Select trades at a premium to WTI at any time (in USD terms; in 2018 the discount ranged between ~$10-$52) >>> nope (it has never traded above)

- The most current 13F as of 12/31/19 of the Swiss National Bank shows a balance below $45 billion (current $89.769 bn) (filings) >>> not happening 

- SEC announces plans to no longer require quarterly reporting by US public filers >>> nope 

- US student loans drop below 1,563.5927 bn (balance as of most recent FRED data) >>> nope, 1.638 rn

- A US regulator imposes a material new restriction on Credit Default Swaps >>> nope

- A US regulator imposes a material new restrictions on equity shortselling at any time for any period in 2019 >>> nope; serious convos in the EU 

- The SPY has at least one -5% day>> not so far

- At least one $1 bn+ AUM US fixed income ETF closes at a 10% or greater discount to NAV on at least one trading day >> have not seen that 

- Case Shiller NYC condo index drops below 250 (most recent 274.82, published Nov 18)  >> 272 currently, SALT is starting to bite IMO. This or NJ or CT house index is a proxy for taxpayer flight. 

Finance x Politics (NEW)

- Congress passes a bill that presents a major curtailment of cash returns to shareholders (limitations on buybacks and/or dividends) >>> no, but is a campaign issue

- Congress passes a bill that introduces a federal net worth based tax >>> no, but is a campaign issue

- Congress passes a bill that reverses the SALT situation from the DJT tax cuts >> nope

- Congress passes a bill that substantially changes established retirement savings accounts (IRAs, 401k, 453, 457 etc.) >>> nope 

- Congress passes a bill that substantially modifies the current student loan situation (eligible for bankruptcy discharge pari passu with other debt, lifetime payments limit for all, etc.) >> no, but is a campaign issue

- Congress passes a bill that introduces a universal single payer healthcare system ("Medicare for All" type) >>> no, but is a campaign issue

- Congress passes a bill that substantially harms the profitability of pharma cos (ie drug price negotiations or IP modifications) >>> nope 

- Congress passes a bill that substantially introduces a points-based immigration system >>> nope 

Political (NEW)

- DJT announces/is prevented from/or equivalent outcome that he will not seek re-election in 2020 > no

- DJT pardons any family member or formal campaign staffer by 12/31/19 (12/31/19 included) > no

- DJT Jr. is suspended or banned from Twitter at any time during 2019  > no

- Pelosi is no longer the House leader as of 12/31/19 (she has a multi-year deal starting in Jan) > no

- One or more states establish a resident "exit tax" based on net worth and/or future income > no but NYS is auditing 100% of high income earners who move

- Federal voter photo ID becomes the law of the land > no

- Xi and DJT physically meet five or more times  > no but trade negs are still daily headlines 

- Macron, Trudeau and/or Erdogan no longer head of state on 12/31/19 (not in the position, plans do not count) > still there 

- Jerome Powell is no longer Fed Chairman on 12/31/19 (not in the position, plans do not count) >> getting more interesting 

- Ukraine and/or Russia formally declare war on the other party by 12/31/19 > no

- Recreational pot legal in all 50 US states > no but SAFE act advances 

- Any current US state votes on a split (referendum or state reps) >> no 

- Any current US state votes on secession from the union (referendum or state reps) >> no

- A named executive officer ("NEO") of any US S&P 500 company is detained in Mainland China, Hong Kong or Macau for any reason >> no

- Kanye West, Kim K, Scarmucci and/or Tiffany Trump have a formal White House role at any time during 2019 >> no

Other (NEW)

- NYC sets a new high temperature record (currently 106F) >> no

- NYC sets a new low temperature record (currently -15F) >> no

- Number of Americans giving up US passports (on an LTM basis as of 12/31/19) is more than 6,000 (LTM as of 12/15/18 is around 4,000, tables here)  >> lower YTD

- the XFL substantially delays or fails to launch (Jan/Feb 2020 scheduled start) >> still scheduled

- Conor McGregor has no UFC belt on 12/31/19 (incl from any 12/31/19 event) >> lost both 

- Brazilian jiu-jitsu is declared a Summer Olympic sport >> no

- Most recent data on the Harvard class Asian ethnicity percentage goes above 28% (most recent data, class of 2022 is 22.9%) >> up to 25.3% 

- "Class of 2019" mean total SAT score moves by +/- 20 or more points vs. Class of 2018 at 1068 (College Board data) >> mean score down to 1059

- Substantive #MeToo allegations against Warren Buffett published in NYT/WSJ/WaPo/LAT >> no

2018 Prediction Contest

This year we have 16 entrants in the prediction contest - not bad.

Below are the list of events and the average probability given by the group: 

	Average
Happened in 2017 – Could It Happen Again?
* CMG trades below 300 at any point (not counting Jan 2nd and 3rd prices)	0.66
* A Cat 3 hurricane makes landfall in the continental U.S.	0.35
* Donald Trump is still President of the United States at the end of the year	0.91
* Bitcoin (@$15k) outperforms gold (@$1312)	0.43
Proposed for First Time in 2017 But Didn't Happen
* Buying equal dollar basket of SHLD, JWN, M, WMT outperforms Amazon	0.36
* The RMB/USD exchange rate goes over 8 at any point	0.27
* Global negative yielding debt goes under $1 trillion	0.39
* Either Buffett or Munger dies	0.27
* Someone besides Elizabeth Holmes is running Theranos at the end of year (resigns, court appointed receiver, trustee, etc)	0.35
* Another Supreme Court seat opens	0.27
* The 10 year Treasury yield falls below the July 6, 2016 low of 1.336%	0.14
* Any country leaves the Euro currency	0.14
* Another Decacorn (nonpublic company, peak valuation >$10 billion) is uncovered as a fraud	0.24
* Either VRX or SHLD enter bankruptcy	0.36
* Twitter is taken private	0.19
* The home mortgage interest deduction is eliminated from federal income tax	0.05
Didn't Happen in 2016 or 2017
* A Euro hits $1 US. (EURUSD parity)	0.19
* The 10 year Treasury yield rises above 3.5%	0.30
* Gold trades below $1000	0.18
* Hussman is up for the year including dividends (fund currently $7.13)	0.38
* Buying equal dollar basket of FB/AAPL/NFLX/GOOGL returns below 0% including dividends	0.40
* The BBB yield closes above 5% at any point	0.33
* A 2 year treasury yields more than 10 year treasury	0.36
* Gold trades above $2000	0.18
* One or more of Kim/Merkel/Saudis loses power (dies, resigns, or is deposed)	0.33
* One or more of Gross/Ackman/Miller/Hussman/Einhorn leaves the business (dies, fired, resigns, manages personal money only)	0.29
* A nuclear weapon is used in anger	0.05
New Ones – Political
* Republicans lose the Senate majority	0.44
* Republicans lose the House majority	0.43
* Joe Arpaio wins Arizona Senate Republican primary	0.35
* One or more of Donald Trump Jr or Jared Kushner is indicted	0.26
* One or more of Hillary Clinton or Huma Abedin is indicted	0.20
* Any TWO or more of the four major Trump cabinet figures (SoS, SoT, SoD, or AG) leaves position (for any reason) during the year	0.37
* More than 10,000 of the DACA people are deported	0.24
* US ends daylight savings time	0.06
New Ones – Cryptocurrency
* Cryptocurrency combined market cap on Coinmarketcap.com exceeds $1T	0.42
* The Flippening: Etherium market cap is greater than Bitcoin (core/classic) at any point during the year	0.36
New Ones – Financial Markets
* TSLA share price goes below 200 at any point	0.40
* The 90-day T-bill yield exceeds 2%	0.36
* The S&P goes below 2,500	0.50
* Any of the following countries' 10-year government bonds yield more than US: Germany, Italy, Canada.	0.44
* Total return of 1 year T-bill outperforms S&P 500, Nasdaq, and bitcoin.	0.35
* The CBOE Volatility Index ($VIX) exceeds 30 at any point during the year	0.43
* Federal Reserve raises target rate four times (in 25bps equivalents) in 2018	0.35
* Federal Reserve lowers target rate any times (in 25bps equivalents) in 2018	0.10
* The Vanguard Balanced Index Fund (VBINX) has a positive total return for the year	0.52
* Federal Reserve bank balance sheet total assets	0.40
* Worst performing S&P 500 sector over past 3 & 5 years (energy) outperforms (price) best performing (information technology).	0.54
* JPYUSD below 100	0.37
* US 30-year treasuries have a positive total return for the year;	0.45
* Crude (WTIC) ends the year above $62.58	0.60
New Ones – Happenings
* Another year with no commercial jet fatal plane incidents	0.61
* 2018 US vehicle sales are under 2017 vehicle sales (17.2 mm in '17, first decline since GFC)	0.57
* An earthquake of magnitude 7.5 or greater affects the continental United States	0.18
* A players' strike occurs in any of the four major US sports leagues (NBA, NFL, MLB, NHL)	0.13
* Philadelphia Eagles win the NFL Super Bowl	0.18
* A tropical cyclone makes the list of 10 wettest on the U.S. Mainland	0.18

It is also interesting to look at the events in the order of most likely to least likely:

	Average
* Donald Trump is still President of the United States at the end of the year	0.91
* CMG trades below 300 at any point (not counting Jan 2nd and 3rd prices)	0.66
* Another year with no commercial jet fatal plane incidents	0.61
* Crude (WTIC) ends the year above $62.58	0.60
* 2018 US vehicle sales are under 2017 vehicle sales (17.2 mm in '17, first decline since GFC)	0.57
* Worst performing S&P 500 sector over past 3 & 5 years (energy) outperforms (price) best performing (information technology).	0.54
* The Vanguard Balanced Index Fund (VBINX) has a positive total return for the year	0.52
* The S&P goes below 2,500	0.50
* US 30-year treasuries have a positive total return for the year;	0.45
* Any of the following countries' 10-year government bonds yield more than US: Germany, Italy, Canada.	0.44
* Republicans lose the Senate majority	0.44
* The CBOE Volatility Index ($VIX) exceeds 30 at any point during the year	0.43
* Republicans lose the House majority	0.43
* Bitcoin (@$15k) outperforms gold (@$1312)	0.43
* Cryptocurrency combined market cap on Coinmarketcap.com exceeds $1T	0.42
* TSLA share price goes below 200 at any point	0.40
* Federal Reserve bank balance sheet total assets	0.40
* Buying equal dollar basket of FB/AAPL/NFLX/GOOGL returns below 0% including dividends	0.40
* Global negative yielding debt goes under $1 trillion	0.39
* Hussman is up for the year including dividends (fund currently $7.13)	0.38
* JPYUSD below 100	0.37
* Any TWO or more of the four major Trump cabinet figures (SoS, SoT, SoD, or AG) leaves position (for any reason) during the year	0.37
* A 2 year treasury yields more than 10 year treasury	0.36
* Buying equal dollar basket of SHLD, JWN, M, WMT outperforms Amazon	0.36
* The Flippening: Etherium market cap is greater than Bitcoin (core/classic) at any point during the year	0.36
* Either VRX or SHLD enter bankruptcy	0.36
* The 90-day T-bill yield exceeds 2%	0.36
* Someone besides Elizabeth Holmes is running Theranos at the end of year (resigns, court appointed receiver, trustee, etc)	0.35
* Joe Arpaio wins Arizona Senate Republican primary	0.35
* A Cat 3 hurricane makes landfall in the continental U.S.	0.35
* Total return of 1 year T-bill outperforms S&P 500, Nasdaq, and bitcoin.	0.35
* Federal Reserve raises target rate four times (in 25bps equivalents) in 2018	0.35
* The BBB yield closes above 5% at any point	0.33
* One or more of Kim/Merkel/Saudis loses power (dies, resigns, or is deposed)	0.33
* The 10 year Treasury yield rises above 3.5%	0.30
* One or more of Gross/Ackman/Miller/Hussman/Einhorn leaves the business (dies, fired, resigns, manages personal money only)	0.29
* The RMB/USD exchange rate goes over 8 at any point	0.27
* Either Buffett or Munger dies	0.27
* Another Supreme Court seat opens	0.27
* One or more of Donald Trump Jr or Jared Kushner is indicted	0.26
* Another Decacorn (nonpublic company, peak valuation >$10 billion) is uncovered as a fraud	0.24
* More than 10,000 of the DACA people are deported	0.24
* One or more of Hillary Clinton or Huma Abedin is indicted	0.20
* A Euro hits $1 US. (EURUSD parity)	0.19
* Twitter is taken private	0.19
* An earthquake of magnitude 7.5 or greater affects the continental United States	0.18
* Philadelphia Eagles win the NFL Super Bowl	0.18
* A tropical cyclone makes the list of 10 wettest on the U.S. Mainland	0.18
* Gold trades below $1000	0.18
* Gold trades above $2000	0.18
* Any country leaves the Euro currency	0.14
* The 10 year Treasury yield falls below the July 6, 2016 low of 1.336%	0.14
* A players' strike occurs in any of the four major US sports leagues (NBA, NFL, MLB, NHL)	0.13
* Federal Reserve lowers target rate any times (in 25bps equivalents) in 2018	0.10
* US ends daylight savings time	0.06
* The home mortgage interest deduction is eliminated from federal income tax	0.05
* A nuclear weapon is used in anger	0.05

And also from highest standard deviation among the 16 predictions (biggest disagreements) to lowest:

	SD
* Cryptocurrency combined market cap on Coinmarketcap.com exceeds $1T	0.27
* Another year with no commercial jet fatal plane incidents	0.26
* A Cat 3 hurricane makes landfall in the continental U.S.	0.26
* Bitcoin (@$15k) outperforms gold (@$1312)	0.25
* Someone besides Elizabeth Holmes is running Theranos at the end of year (resigns, court appointed receiver, trustee, etc)	0.24
* Joe Arpaio wins Arizona Senate Republican primary	0.24
* A 2 year treasury yields more than 10 year treasury	0.23
* 2018 US vehicle sales are under 2017 vehicle sales (17.2 mm in '17, first decline since GFC)	0.22
* The 90-day T-bill yield exceeds 2%	0.22
* Either VRX or SHLD enter bankruptcy	0.22
* Buying equal dollar basket of FB/AAPL/NFLX/GOOGL returns below 0% including dividends	0.21
* Any TWO or more of the four major Trump cabinet figures (SoS, SoT, SoD, or AG) leaves position (for any reason) during the year	0.21
* The Flippening: Etherium market cap is greater than Bitcoin (core/classic) at any point during the year	0.21
* Buying equal dollar basket of SHLD, JWN, M, WMT outperforms Amazon	0.21
* Global negative yielding debt goes under $1 trillion	0.21
* CMG trades below 300 at any point (not counting Jan 2nd and 3rd prices)	0.21
* One or more of Kim/Merkel/Saudis loses power (dies, resigns, or is deposed)	0.20
* Worst performing S&P 500 sector over past 3 & 5 years (energy) outperforms (price) best performing (information technology).	0.20
* Federal Reserve bank balance sheet total assets	0.20
* One or more of Hillary Clinton or Huma Abedin is indicted	0.19
* Crude (WTIC) ends the year above $62.58	0.19
* Federal Reserve raises target rate four times (in 25bps equivalents) in 2018	0.19
* Another Decacorn (nonpublic company, peak valuation >$10 billion) is uncovered as a fraud	0.18
* One or more of Gross/Ackman/Miller/Hussman/Einhorn leaves the business (dies, fired, resigns, manages personal money only)	0.18
* Republicans lose the House majority	0.18
* Another Supreme Court seat opens	0.18
* An earthquake of magnitude 7.5 or greater affects the continental United States	0.18
* JPYUSD below 100	0.18
* Twitter is taken private	0.18
* More than 10,000 of the DACA people are deported	0.17
* Republicans lose the Senate majority	0.17
* A tropical cyclone makes the list of 10 wettest on the U.S. Mainland	0.17
* The RMB/USD exchange rate goes over 8 at any point	0.17
* US 30-year treasuries have a positive total return for the year;	0.17
* Total return of 1 year T-bill outperforms S&P 500, Nasdaq, and bitcoin.	0.17
* TSLA share price goes below 200 at any point	0.16
* The CBOE Volatility Index ($VIX) exceeds 30 at any point during the year	0.16
* The 10 year Treasury yield rises above 3.5%	0.16
* Philadelphia Eagles win the NFL Super Bowl	0.15
* The Vanguard Balanced Index Fund (VBINX) has a positive total return for the year	0.15
* One or more of Donald Trump Jr or Jared Kushner is indicted	0.15
* Any of the following countries' 10-year government bonds yield more than US: Germany, Italy, Canada.	0.15
* The BBB yield closes above 5% at any point	0.15
* The S&P goes below 2,500	0.15
* Any country leaves the Euro currency	0.13
* A Euro hits $1 US. (EURUSD parity)	0.13
* Hussman is up for the year including dividends (fund currently $7.13)	0.12
* Either Buffett or Munger dies	0.12
* Gold trades below $1000	0.10
* Federal Reserve lowers target rate any times (in 25bps equivalents) in 2018	0.09
* Gold trades above $2000	0.08
* A players' strike occurs in any of the four major US sports leagues (NBA, NFL, MLB, NHL)	0.08
* The 10 year Treasury yield falls below the July 6, 2016 low of 1.336%	0.07
* Donald Trump is still President of the United States at the end of the year	0.06
* US ends daylight savings time	0.05
* A nuclear weapon is used in anger	0.04
* The home mortgage interest deduction is eliminated from federal income tax	0.04